Zeus capital placing notes26 Jun 2024 21:58
Heron is a significant asset now moving to development. Petro Matad discovered its Heron
field in 2019 (Petro Matad 100%), which is expected to contain 33-60mmbbl of recoverable
oil. The field is now moving to development, with plans to bring the existing Heron-1 well
onstream and drill the Heron-2 development well in H2 2024. Each well is expected to have
initial production of around 300bbl/d, and the 2024 programme will establish first revenues
for the company.
Heron land access clearances achieved for initial programme. Petro Matad recently secured
the important land access clearances for Heron-1, several additional Heron development
wells, and the Gobi Bear-1 exploration well. The company is also making progress towards
getting full, permanent land access clearances for the entire Block XX.
Heron services and offtake being secured. Petro Matad has already secured the kit required
for Heron-1 production and is in final contract negotiations for a rig for Heron development
drilling. The company is also progressing discussions for Heron oil processing and offtake
with local operator Petro China, with the support of the Mongolian government.
Initial Heron production data to underpin ongoing development. Production data from
Heron-1 and Heron-2 should help Petro Matad further refine its interpretation and well design
for the field, targeting higher recovery. We then expect further Heron development drilling
from 2025 onwards.
Higher Heron potential on improved recovery. While the existing base case recovery
expectation for the Heron field is 33mmbbl, Petro Matad believes updated interpretation of
existing data, alongside the application of modern drilling/completion techniques, could drive
improved recovery of 60mmbbl. This provides significant upside potential, with the initial
Heron production data potentially helping to confirm higher recovery expectations.
Gobi Bear-1 exploration well provides large upside catalyst. In addition to the 2024 Heron
programme, Petro Matad is also planning the high impact Gobi Bear-1 exploration well (Petro
Matad 100%). This is interpreted to contain mean oil in place of 307mmbbl, implying a 55-
92mmbbl recoverable number. Geological chance of success for the well is 15%, and on
success the proximity to Heron could significantly assist further drilling and development.
Gobi Bear offers asymmetric drilling risk. Gobi Bear-1 is planned to be drilled with a light rig,
for around US$1.5m. Unrisked we value Gobi Bear at US$257m (55mmbbl resource case),
offering significant asymmetric risk/reward from this well.
Our valuation implies significant upside potential on Heron and Gobi Bear. Our NAV model
values Heron at 8.9p risked (10.7p unrisked) using 33mmbbl and long term US$65/bbl Brent.
We value Gobi Bear at 1.5p risked, going to 14.8p unrisked using 55mmbbl. As such, there is
significant value potential in both assets, and a work programme in 2024 that could