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Just because your not on board with the "buy now its going up", "added more", "found funds" brigade your a de-ramper.
RNS :
"Full year 2021 export saleable production guidance is accordingly moderated to 14.8Mt - 15.2Mt, from 15Mt - 16Mt as previously guided. Unless there is an improvement in rail performance, Thungela is expected to build additional export inventory stock levels of approximately 1.3mt during H2 2021."
Production is the key word and is reduced using whichever metric you want to run with, they have not got room to store the black stuff so are reducing production, as well as stockpiling 1.3M tonnes. The high and low end of the production still needs 1.3M tonnes at best taking off cause they cannot move it.
HENRYKISS - I did mute that the RNS was a political statement aimed at Transnet when it was released.I had a quick analysis of the July (CEO) interview and just noted the following
"It is significant. We said that our stocks are likely to increase I think …. by about 1.3 million tonnes, depending on what price you take. That could be anything between R2 billion and R10.5 billion worth of revenue tied up,"
Now on my calcs R2 billion at 1.3M tonnes is a price of R1,538 per Tonne or $105
R10.5 billion is R8,076 or $553 per Tonne. where is this high price coming from, especially as the stockbound coal is lower rate contract.
If a reasonable rate of $210 is used at 1.3M Tonnes that is $273M about £200M.
£200M of profit not realised (bottom line cash) at 30% is £60M
136M shares in issue losing £60M is £0.44 less per share. Most were calling a divvy of £0.50 t0 £1.00 per share weeks ago. This is a big hit. Just my take on it and welcome to be educated if i am totally off on this.
The SP has no effect on the dividend. The divvy is mainly linked with the profitability and cash balance of the company. The divvy in theory will dictate the SP but as you have seen over the past few days lots of other factors affect the SP.
There has been many guesses on the value of dividend ranging from £0.50 to £1 per share based on the predicted performance and coal prices.