Member Info for CMgoldgard

Did DB ever mention what they'd do with the silver mined from La India? In view of China's export ban on the metal, it's obvious that silver is structurally short on supply and has become a strategic metal.

Thanks @freefaller

I agree with this take. Any news that the second jurisdiction deal is off is going to hold back, though not crater the SP. I think it's safe to say that we will rerate on the back of La India going into production. But I doubt the multi-bagger scenario will actualise until a second jurisdiction mine is acquired and operational.

Where I'll push back is regarding Runruno, as DB did clarify in the interview that the plant equipment would be put into storage and await new opportunities.

We can only hope the second jurisdiction mine has a similar chemical and geological profile that would allow MTL to repurpose the Runruno equipment for it.

But we don't capture the full market value of gold do we? If I recall, the mine produces gold dores of +/- 80% purity, so if 99.999% gold is trading at US$4500/oz, we'd maybe only get 80-90% of the value of gold? It has to be discounted from the spot price to account for further refining costs etc.

DB did state in the annual meeting that they wouldn’t be issuing a dividend until at least 2028?

I understand 2028 is also the target date for the acquisition of a second mine for the sake of jurisdictional diversification. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

If I recall correctly, DB did state that running a specific segment of the mine (was it the mill?) would be economically unfeasible. And the current cost of fuel has already added 400k / month to costs.

Either I didn’t pay close enough attention or misheard. I assume he is aware of the POG and yet he still put it on the record that running the mine on genset power just doesn’t make sense.

SpaceX, and by extension, Tesla, imho, its greatest asset and strategic value is the starlink system. It is close to establishing a monopoly on low earth orbit LEO satellite link systems. That would make it practically indispensable to any user on earth. Like oil, this is The sort of leverage countries go to war over.

Thanks everyone for sharing their thoughts. I have nowhere near the holdings of many fellow board members, but my stake is personally substantial enough.

And yes, I am desperate for news, particularly the long lead time transformer order. Any electrical engineers who have had experience manufacturing one ought to know how tight the manufacturing tolerances are. Like turbine blades for LNG power plants. It’s a small part of the overall mine build cost yet crucial enough to bring production to a standstill. And diesel gensets simply aren’t economically feasible.

On the off chance that Warsh pulls a Volcker, things could get ugly.

The structural trend for gold in the long term is only going one way, up. I get that. Especially after the freezing of Russian sovereign assets. Gold and bitcoin are, as far as I know, the only assets with zero counterparty risk and cannot be consumed unlike other commodities.

I’ve no positions in AI companies simply because it doesn’t make sense for just 10 companies to make up 40%++ of the S&P500. Korea being even worse, just 2 companies make up half the KOSPI.

thanks. i am not trying to de-ramp @kat-079.

there are no risk free investments. and i am asking again in view of the latest annual results being published and wanted to seek out fellow shareholder thoughts.

if one is so ****sure about this stock, they’d place their entire life savings in it. i reckon no one here has done that?

I know lots of people on this board are up by multiples. Just want to revisit the bear case again. What would make / turn this stock into a terrible investment?

I’d really like to hear the bear case for MTL. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

What could Plausibly cause this investment to fail? Darren Bowden leaving? Insufficient global supply of diesel causing massive delays? Cratering of the gold price?

The bear case because I feel there’s too much giddy optimism that this stock cannot fail, When clearly single mine risk is real as is single jurisdiction risk. All it takes us one tailing dam failure or one political regime change and it all goes to hell.

DB has said that MTL are looking at acquisition opportunities and only projects that are shovel ready.

Wonder if anyone on this board has come across Wilton resources? Came up on a screener and what looks like an absolute s*it show of a management.

The project is in Indonesia and has been beset with problems from the outset. SP has collapsed and it’s mostly due to incompetent management who are unable to get the mine up and running.

As with most mining projects in historically junta run countries like Indonesia, expect local official connivance, palm greasing and active/retired military personnel involvement.

And maybe a massive delay to the power transformer at La India that would cause the stock price to nosedive.

Political upheaval in Nicaragua is probably the only thing that could derail this stock. Heard anything from Americans about another planned kidnapping of a head of state lately?

Fair point, freefaller.

Somehow reminds me of the only investor I know who still has a 100% success rate and has never suffered an investment loss in their life. My grandma.

Bought gold and hard assets prodigiously in the 80s with whatever spare cash she had lying around, kept the gold in a safe deposit box at the bank. Now she’s really banking it! Boom time Charlie, anyone?

At current gold prices, Fair value probably in the mid 30s assuming La India comes online.

Anyone else see the irony in using fiat currency to buy a gold mining company stock?

Paper money, the USD in particular, will continue to be debased. International Trade will eventually find alternatives to the mighty dollar, but barring some major economic collapse, it won’t be completely replaced in the near future.

I added to my position today. A further vote of confidence in this stock.

Thanks LHC, Pj70, Sakura, for clarifying. This yellow skin should’ve taken a closer look at the share register ;-)

I was not aware of any institutional investors in MTL. My bad. If they are, I reckon they wouldn't be substantial shareholders.