The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
...correction, wholly owned...
"Maybe of interest -
Highbridge have been shorting SM since 9th December 2016 and have held well over 2% at times. They are now reducing and have been since 29th May 2019 when they were 2.70% - after continued reduction they are now down to 1.42% but that still gives them the highest percentage of the 5 shorts listed."
Ah yes, highbridge, I know this was discussed recently but just to offer my opinion that there was definately no conflict of interest here between them and 55% co-owners JP Morgan Asset Management - and certainly they would not have been party to any insider information as that's illegal...
The firm was founded in 1992, by childhood friends Glenn Dubin and Henry Swieca. The company started with $35 million in capital and is named after the 19th-century aqueduct that connects Washington Heights and the Bronx. In 2004, J.P. Morgan Asset Management purchased 55% ownership of the firm, and then substantially all the remaining shares in 2009.
The company maintains offices in New York, London, and Hong Kong. The firm operates as a subsidiary of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "
Was the reaction: '...You want how much?' ???
"How in your delusional mind do you think a fair price is between 10-15p ?
Unfuknbelievable..."
maths
...sorry, typed this on my tablet, i see now , yes - pls ignore the £ sign infront of the number of share, sorry for the confusion.
Appy, sorry, 1500p was a typo, the SP would be £1.5 (one pound fifty)
10 billion = 10 thousand million (10,000million) i was using this to keep the calc transparent. hope i didnt offend :-)
...a guess at the SP in 2027?....
The fool predicted a market cap of 15,000million in their article https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2017/02/13/where-will-sirius-minerals-plc-be-in-10-years/
So plugging the numbers in, the SP in 2027? ...
If future market cap goes to £15000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £1.50p (1500p)
So if this transpires, based on an investment of £25,000 today at 3p. You'd aquire 833,333 shares.
Your £25k would be worth £1,25million.
Or flip that around if you took out a short position....
Just hypothosising for fun.
sorry balled that up, i'll try again:-
Anglo American:- Post Tax Profit Last Year 4000million
Shares in Issue: 1,377m , Market Capitalisation £27,258m, Share Price = 27,258 / 1377 = £19.80p [1980p]
Sirius Minerals: 7,019m, Market Capitalisation £220m ( 124th the size of anglo american). Share Price = 220/7019 = £0.03p(3p)
If future market cap goes to £1000million and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.10p (10p)
If future market cap goes to £2000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.20p (20p)
If future market cap goes to £3000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.30p (30p)
If future market cap goes to £4000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.40p (40p)
If future market cap goes to £5000m and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.50p (50p)
Anglo American:- Post Tax Profit Last Year 4000million
Shares in Issue: 1,377m , Market Capitalisation £27,258m, Share Price = 27,258 / 1377 = £19.80p [1980p]
Sirius Minerals: 7,019m, Market Capitalisation £220m ( 124th the size of anglo american). Share Price = 220/7019 = £0.03p(3p)
If future market cap goes to £1000 and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.10p (10p)
If future market cap goes to £2000 and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.20p (20p)
If future market cap goes to £4000 and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.20p (30p)
If future market cap goes to £5000 and share diluted to £10,000million = SP = £0.20p (40p)
.....
because Sirius need cash, and cash is king.
SXX are struggling to obtain funding for three to four times their annual income. In terms of annual revenue it isnt even tha tlarge an amount. 100 year life, 1000 to 3000million a year revenue. That's upto £300,000,000,000 over the life of the mine (if ive got my zeros right). Any the market cap is currently £200million
yes, 2017, it's still the same mine, just closer to completion
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/sirius-minerals-expects-up-to-3bn-annual-earnings-from-york-project-hcfcyi2std7b8ww.html
Just reading an old report:-
the company expects to earn between 1000million to 3000 million a year on production, depending on produciton
the net present value of the company will rise to 27,000 million on production.
The company need 3000 million to get to production. The investment required is massive but so is th eprojected annual income. So much potential.
The current market cap is 200 odd million (that's a couple of months earnings on production).
So much potential. I'd be amazed if the government dont back this project.
Bandanaman, i sadly agree with you 16:12. Death by a million cuts. Shareholder wipe out and aquisition for peanuts by a competator mine just up the road.
But, you never know, they might pull a rabit out of the hat. Further dilution and and a part givernment backing is my hope.
what do you expect. Following SSX over the past year has for me been like supporting a really, really bad football team, that get's beat every week. Except some of us have paid for 250 years of season tickets in advance.
i don't know, i was speaking to my mate Derick who's lover Raul rents a van to one of the window cleaners at 11 Downing Street. I live in hope
this explaination has also be offered on other forumns. So on that basis, more could follow and share price could dip further. i hope not but likely short term. My recent 25k final punt on SSX is already severel eroded after only a copule of week. i'm banking (gambling) on government backing of some sort.
If it does all go pear-shaped - are we all still getting together for a party?
...you sold out because you're mate bumped into a van driver? I suppose he'd have intimate details of Sirius's financial affairs, being a van driver, so fair enough.
There's such a thing as structural integrity - that's what they made the tunner wider.
I live in a cottage close to the mine and i'm sure i have just seen Arthur Scargill pass by my living room window in a tank - it all bodes well...