Member Info for CleverSheep

SR123: "As expected, started to rise and getting harder to buy :)"
chrissev1: "Just bought 8 million this morning. Not sure if brave or stupid."

You guys need to do a better job of coordinating your ramping. Chrissev1, you just tossed out £100k on a punt. ha ha ha.

"Oil is not dead because of Biden"

Famous quote from Saudi oil minister some years ago:
"The Stone Age did not come to an end for a lack of stones". Meaning when better alternatives are developed, things move on. So it will happen with fossil fuels. Not to worry for us now, oil will be needed for many more years yet to come.

Paris to dodge the shareholders while keeping travel costs for co. Officers down. No other reason to come to Europe then not have it in UK.

News item is dated january 2013!!!!

I'll repeat my fag packet calculation from a few weeks ago (which seems to have disappeared).

We have 520m tonnes of coal in the ground. If valued at $1/tonne "in the ground", that's $520m, or around £400m. Spread over 98m shares, that's £4.08 per share.

Now there will be arguments up and down. The Chinese will be saying "well you can't sell it to anyone else, so we'll give you £1 a share". Tang will be saying "well you can't get the coal you need anywhere else, so you can have it for £5/share". I reckon they will settle for a value based on an industry-standard valuation of coal in the ground, adjusted for capital requirements and ease of mining.

Regarding timing, the Chinese won't make an offer until they are sure of getting government approval for the whole project (or at least until they know "the fix is in"). If the latter, they may make a low-ball offer on the basis of "take this now, or take your chances of not getting final approval".

Interesting times, but I'm still convinced Tang is aiming to sell outright - for the right price - and won't want a long-term partnership agreement.

Ah yes, thanks! Easy to forget sometimes that GCM is a UK company.

Probably something I’ve missed, but why would they want/need to stay below 30%?

I reiterate my point from a few days ago. I think the end result will be a 100% buyout og GCM by the Chinese. Why?

Because (1) we’re a tiny company that knows absolutely NOTHING about power engineering or building and running power stations. We have nothing to contribute to a JV - except our coal. The cost to the Chinese of buying us out would be a relatively small part of their overall costs for the full project. (2) if we DID take part in a JV we would be a (very) junior partner. I don’t see Tang being happy getting trampled underfoot by the Chinese, AND as a JV partner we would have to wait 5-10 years to complete the projest before we see returns. A lot could happen in that time, so much better to take the bird in hand now.

I’m convinced a BO is what will happen, the only question is the price, which is an interesting conundrum. In most negotiations there are usually several possible buyers and sellers, here there’s really only one of each. The Chinese can’t easily get the coal from elsewhere, and we don’t have any other obvious customers.

All IMO, from no particular fount of knowledge.

I’m sure it’s just the Chinese playing hardball, and Tang pushing back. Remember, the Chinese idea of JV or any form of cooperation is that both sides work together in harmony and friendship for the benefit of the Chinese side.

GP, I'm no expert but I think £10 per share is way over the top.

Don't forget the coal is STILL IN THE GROUND, not mined, washed and in rail cars waiting to go.

Coal in the ground is worth what, $1/tonne?

We have 572m tonnes, so $572m worth. With 98m shares, that's $5.84 or £4.50 per share., And I think that's probably optimistic.

Interested to hear what others think.

Like many here, I've been in and out of this share several times over the past 5 years or so, always viewing it as a binary gamble - multi multibag or bust.

Here's a few of topics I haven't seen mentioned on this BB before.

First, Bangladesh ranks 143/180 on the world corruption index, which means that nothing official gets done without brown envelopes changing hands. As a UK-quoted company, GCM is legally prohibited from doing this, and the directors risk massive penalties if they do. Not so the Chinese. You can bet your life that they know exactly where the brown envelopes need to go, and how much to put in them, and will have no compunction in getting this done. This is one of the things, IMO, that will finally get this project moving.

Second, I see talk of GCM becoming a "power company" - but how long does it take to build a huge power station from scratch, in a country like Bangladesh? 10 years? 20? GCM will not be a "power company", and will not see revenues from all that coal, until those power stations are built. The only way revenues will come sooner is if GCM are allowed to mine the coal and sell it elsewhere (within BD or export) while the power stations are being built.

Finally, given the length of time it will take to build the power stations, I don't see PowerChina wanting to take the risk of what might happen to GCM or the price of coal in the meantime.I think they will want to ensure their supply, and the cleanest way to do that is to buyout GCM. (Yes, I know Tang has said he wants to mine, but I think that's just a negotiating position, unless of course he sees opportunities, and will have permission, to sell the coal elsewhere as I said above).

All IMO, from no particular background of expertise, except that I know the Chinese.

Strongman - thank you. Much appreciated.

Strongman, you stated earlier that you have previously posted your targets for PREM sp. I’ve looked back through your history but can’t find them. Not doubting you at all, just that there’s a lot to read!

I find your input sensible and informative so would like to hear your views on the sp. Please would you re-post?

Thank you
cs

Very nervous now about Monday. If the news was good I can’t see why it wouldn’t be announced today.

I’m now half thinking we have another Cadance moment here. RNS Monday “Regret to announce unable to agree terms with Zim govt. Will now proceed to legal option which will take several years and multiple placings to pay for it.”

As LTH I sincerely hope I’m wrong but it will be an uncomfortable weekend.

“RE: SP ?Today 08:58More likely an RNS logged and the MMs trying to accumulate shares”

Why would they want to accumulate shares without knowing what’s in the RNS? Could be bad news.

... use the LSE mobile site. It's showing as UP nearly 12% there!!! Pathetic.

On the mobile site. Only 6% on the desktop. Which do you prefer?

(But only on the mobile site).

Correction, original post has now appeared. Doesn’t change the facts though.

Seems L.S.E ignored my recent post about % change figures on the mobile and desktop sites being hugely different. Check it out yourselves. I’m done paying for this useless site.