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I reiterate my point from a few days ago. I think the end result will be a 100% buyout og GCM by the Chinese. Why?
Because (1) we’re a tiny company that knows absolutely NOTHING about power engineering or building and running power stations. We have nothing to contribute to a JV - except our coal. The cost to the Chinese of buying us out would be a relatively small part of their overall costs for the full project. (2) if we DID take part in a JV we would be a (very) junior partner. I don’t see Tang being happy getting trampled underfoot by the Chinese, AND as a JV partner we would have to wait 5-10 years to complete the projest before we see returns. A lot could happen in that time, so much better to take the bird in hand now.
I’m convinced a BO is what will happen, the only question is the price, which is an interesting conundrum. In most negotiations there are usually several possible buyers and sellers, here there’s really only one of each. The Chinese can’t easily get the coal from elsewhere, and we don’t have any other obvious customers.
All IMO, from no particular fount of knowledge.
I’m sure it’s just the Chinese playing hardball, and Tang pushing back. Remember, the Chinese idea of JV or any form of cooperation is that both sides work together in harmony and friendship for the benefit of the Chinese side.
GP, I'm no expert but I think £10 per share is way over the top.
Don't forget the coal is STILL IN THE GROUND, not mined, washed and in rail cars waiting to go.
Coal in the ground is worth what, $1/tonne?
We have 572m tonnes, so $572m worth. With 98m shares, that's $5.84 or £4.50 per share., And I think that's probably optimistic.
Interested to hear what others think.
Like many here, I've been in and out of this share several times over the past 5 years or so, always viewing it as a binary gamble - multi multibag or bust.
Here's a few of topics I haven't seen mentioned on this BB before.
First, Bangladesh ranks 143/180 on the world corruption index, which means that nothing official gets done without brown envelopes changing hands. As a UK-quoted company, GCM is legally prohibited from doing this, and the directors risk massive penalties if they do. Not so the Chinese. You can bet your life that they know exactly where the brown envelopes need to go, and how much to put in them, and will have no compunction in getting this done. This is one of the things, IMO, that will finally get this project moving.
Second, I see talk of GCM becoming a "power company" - but how long does it take to build a huge power station from scratch, in a country like Bangladesh? 10 years? 20? GCM will not be a "power company", and will not see revenues from all that coal, until those power stations are built. The only way revenues will come sooner is if GCM are allowed to mine the coal and sell it elsewhere (within BD or export) while the power stations are being built.
Finally, given the length of time it will take to build the power stations, I don't see PowerChina wanting to take the risk of what might happen to GCM or the price of coal in the meantime.I think they will want to ensure their supply, and the cleanest way to do that is to buyout GCM. (Yes, I know Tang has said he wants to mine, but I think that's just a negotiating position, unless of course he sees opportunities, and will have permission, to sell the coal elsewhere as I said above).
All IMO, from no particular background of expertise, except that I know the Chinese.
Strongman - thank you. Much appreciated.
Strongman, you stated earlier that you have previously posted your targets for PREM sp. I’ve looked back through your history but can’t find them. Not doubting you at all, just that there’s a lot to read!
I find your input sensible and informative so would like to hear your views on the sp. Please would you re-post?
Thank you
cs
Very nervous now about Monday. If the news was good I can’t see why it wouldn’t be announced today.
I’m now half thinking we have another Cadance moment here. RNS Monday “Regret to announce unable to agree terms with Zim govt. Will now proceed to legal option which will take several years and multiple placings to pay for it.”
As LTH I sincerely hope I’m wrong but it will be an uncomfortable weekend.
“RE: SP ?Today 08:58More likely an RNS logged and the MMs trying to accumulate shares”
Why would they want to accumulate shares without knowing what’s in the RNS? Could be bad news.
... use the LSE mobile site. It's showing as UP nearly 12% there!!! Pathetic.
On the mobile site. Only 6% on the desktop. Which do you prefer?
(But only on the mobile site).
Correction, original post has now appeared. Doesn’t change the facts though.
Seems L.S.E ignored my recent post about % change figures on the mobile and desktop sites being hugely different. Check it out yourselves. I’m done paying for this useless site.
LSE, can you please explain how your mobile site has UKOG at ask 2.10, bid 2.20, mid 2.15, % change +13.16%, and AT THE SAME TIME your desktop site has ask 2.10, bid 2.20, mid 2.15 and change ZERO?????
Yes. generally a very flaky and amateurish site all round, especially on the quoted numbers. Seems to me every time I refresh the page I get a different set of numbers, and the numbers at the top of the chat page often don't agree with the numbers on the watchlist. Finally they often come up with a "mid" price that's nowhere near the average of bid and ask, leading to absurd number for % change. The chat here is often interesting and useful, but I'm not sure it's worth paying for. Seriously considering cancelling my premium membership.
Oh, and the first time I tried to post this message the site crashed!!! (again).
I've just compared several of my pf prices shown on HL against those shown here on LSE. LSE's prices are all over the place, giving me absolutely no confidence at all in what I'm seeing. I could do just as well by picking numbers out of a hat. What kind of service is this supposed to be? When will they get it sorted out so we get the information we're paying for???
How come HL shows us up 2.63% but LSE shows us DOWN 7.14% ???!!!! HL shows previous close as 4.75; LSE shows 5.25, which is stupid. Where do they get these numbers from? What am I paying LSE for??
I've seen my name mentioned a few times on here. Sorry I don't comment much but I have a day job as well as coordinating the SA and I don't have time to be on here and the other place a lot. If anyone wants to join the SA, email me at paragon@73east.com, with your username, real name and number of shares. You will then get the "back catalogue" of all correspondence, good bad and ugly, and make your own mind up about what's been going on. Cheers CS
Reminder to any holders wanting to join the Shareholders Association, as I don't look on here very often in the present circumstances. Pleas email me at paragon@73east.com with your username, real name, and number of shares held. All information will bee held confidentially. Cheers CS
And4444 Not received your email... paragon@73east.com