RE: Future production volume growth2 Dec 2020 20:40
Hi Nobull, I appreciate where your coming from now, and you also know the history (I also had some Lendu & Bertam before amalgamation).
mpe's last annual report did say that 'during 2019 the RSPO adopted a change to its standards affecting any new planting' so this was paused - however they are committed to buying land to try and make optimal blocks of 10k hectares and 1 mill. This includes trying to secure another 5k hectares near kota bangun as it has 15k hectares.
Like aep they used to never have any debt, (but partly perhaps with klk pressure) they have upped dividends and land purchases, so I think they will buy more land when cash flow grows in earnest as the cpo price rise / if opportunities arise.
Your absolutely right to teach your relative about commodity pices, as whether its gold or cpo they always go in various lengths of cycles. mpe and especially aep are also examples of small companies with small amounts of shares in issue - so often the price can go both up and down far more dramatically than the industry giants - small company risk and reward, but as you point out the overall longer term direction is ever upwards.
Overall I think mpe will continue to grow, or be taken over by klk, if this happens fingers crossed for a full price - something that looks favourable with the rising outlook for cpo. Hopefully having already failed with the last bid, they have missed this cycles low point.
Old fashioned tortoise I know, but I look at my dividend against my original purchase price as a 37% yield - always a close follower of the FT's John Lee!