Facts and figures1 Apr 2011 18:21
I apologise to those who have seen this before. However, for anyone new to the board it will make interesting reading. Our market cap today is just 28m
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Three British offshore project sales in 2008 demonstrate the increase in value as development progresses, says Joel Staadecker, CEO of independent developer SeaEnergy Renewables.
He points out that developer Fluor sold its 50% stake in the post-consent 504MW Greater Gabbard project off Suffolk in the east of England to its joint venture partner SSE for £40 million, including development costs, in May 2008 — a value of £157,000/MW to be installed.
At financial close in November that year when all the contracting was completed, SSE re-sold the 50% project share to RWE for £143 million, or £567,000/MW.
Meantime, Vattenfall had bought the 150MW Ormonde project in the north Irish Sea just prior to financial close for £340,000/MW.
Assets:
920MW Beatrice (75% Airtricity SSE, 25% SeaEnergy) = 230 MW
905MW Inch Cape (100% SeaEnergy) = 905 MW
1,500 MW Moray Firth (75% EDPR & 25% SeaEnergy) = 375 MW
TOTAL TO SEA = 1,510 MW
Benchmark examples:
Fluour – Greater Gabbard – POST CONSENT - £157,000/MW
VATTENFALL – Ormonde – FINANCIAL CLOSE - £340,000/MW
SSE – Greater Gabbard – PRE-CONSTRUCTION - £567,000/MW
Potential sale value of SERL (based purely on MW price)
POST CONSENT - 1,510 MW x £157,000/MW = £237M
FINANCIAL CLOSE – 1,510 MW x £340,000/MW = £513M
PRE-CONSTRUCTION – 1,510 MW x £567,000/MW = £856M
SERL's UK developments are timetabled to reach the 'post-consent' stage in 2013.
It will cost around £50m to take the assets to 'pre-construction' stage.
So SERL will be worth around £200m based on assets alone in 2013 and that value will more than quadruple by 2018. That is not including the value of anything that may come to fruition in Taiwan or indeed the industry leading expertise of the Beatrice team. The big question is - what is it worth to the buyer in March 2011?
If it will be worth £157,000 per MW in 2013 - here are some possible values per MW now and there effect on the SERL valuation:
£10,000 x 1,510MW = £15m
£25,000 x 1,510MW = £37m
£50,000 x 1,510MW = £75m
£75,000 x 1,510MW = £113m
These are simply scenarios based on the per MW price.