Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Brockwl
yes there is a reduction for units for FY23 but more importantly numbers in US$ & units are unchanged for FY24 and FY25.
Cenkos basically assume the failure of G2 / G3 to grow over these years in terms of annual new connections. Ditto Aviation.
I agree that Fleet has so far always underdelivered. But I think they have set G3 up to make Fleet happen. That is not in the price / price target.
Fleet may not happen. In which case Cenkos will prove accurate. But my view remains that the market logic of Fleet is big not niche. G3 and this H2 might be when I am finally shown to be right. In which case there is a lot of upside.
I have the Cenkos note in front of me. There are no reductions for OEM on previous forecast - instead a slight increase. There is a reduction for Fleet forecast. However, still showing SEE in profit for FY24/5 at US$14.3m [prior forecast US$16.4m].
I note that Cenkos have added extra expenses for G3 development & additional marketing costs - but they assume sales at Fleet grow at historic rates. imo, very conservative unless you think there is no big market - I think there is.
Similarly, Cenkos assume zero growth on Aviation. Why?
I still think Magna are closer to reality at 11p
You forget about the other latest crap that PM spouted i.e. the Magna & MBYE deals. We got no hints on those. Yet they are really big deals.
You make no allowances whatsoever for the lumpiness of new ventures. Things like the late delivery of G2 - which smallish business has control over the factory?? The advantage of G3 is hopefully bigger orders & new supply chain thru Magna [logically]. That will resolve that.
Yes PM is wrong not to hedge his timing guidance. But to make out he isn't delivering is mistaken
If Cenkos are right viz:
Record first half revenues of US$24.4m position the company well for the full year:
typical 40/60 H1/H2 revenue seasonality implies that Seeing Machines looks to be
on track to exceed our FY23E forecast of US$52.2m.
Then FY wd be approx US$61m i.e. almost achieving current 2024E FY US$62.8m. Some nice acceleration in progress
imo the lowish revenue growth in Fleet [cf fitments] might be distorted by restatement into US$ of prior year [i.e. US$ has strengthened over other currencies over this period - & most Fleet earns in non US$]
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https://www.ft.com/content/477318a9-5b05-4305-9e0d-f605431692db
‘I would never, ever list on the London stock exchange. [I would] much rather see my companies listed in New York where valuations are higher and where investors and analysts ‘get’ growth’
— Hussein Kanji, partner, Hoxton Ventures
I am patient - but I still think the shares will hit 40p this year. But if they do, I will still intend to hold given my increasing confidence in the speed & size of Fleet development [ignoring the rest].
I'm thinking of the size of MBY & its market access. A few million unit sales pa isn't that big a deal - but the arithmetic is staggering.
DR777, the share doesn't know you own it. If you have limited time frame so be it - but looking at the business / share today, I think the prospect going forward is, now, very exciting.
I am not impatient. Not if they are delivering on plan.
Buffet said the ideal time to hold a stock was forever. I agree. The rest is speculation. I am looking for great long term business stories to invest in. When I find them then the last thing I want is premature exit. I have all the time in the world for businesses that are on the path of success. Let's see the whole story.
Very much liked this bit:
"Demand is certain both for "after-manufacture" installation and for #fleet use. Global #commercial #vehicle production is about 5% of light vehicle production, meaning the potential global market is about 4-5 million units per year for #bus, #truck, and #coach. Add on top fleet installs, which also has the potential to be measured in millions of units per year."
Have been saying this since they launched Fleet in 2015. Really agree. This is why the potential here is so massive.
Didn't like Chris Menon's post. Another one who just wants out i.e. a takeover. To me, that would be failure. Success is making this happen. 10m guardian units generating even US$100 per unit net = US$1bn income pa = very big share price
https://seeingmachines.com/a-sword-and-shield-how-technology-helps-rft-deliver-outcomes/
Yes half the posters on here act as though the purpose is to encourage PIs to exit whilst they still can at low prices.
The time / capital whilst you have owned these shares is sunk cost. So the only question today - as everyday - is this: is this share a buy or a sell or a hold as I assess it now? All the rest is BS
The failure of "market recognition" is someone's opportunity. If shares weren't under priced at some point there wd be no buying opportunities.
As to time frames, one thing is certain: shares do not wait until profits are realised. They are defined in the economic textbooks as discounting future cash flows. As soon as perceived risk drops & cash flows are visible - and there are actually investors buying in this sector - then shares move up to reflect that.
Firstly, Mobileye had 75%+ of the ADAS market [last time I checked]
Secondly, great timing with G3 coming into production. G3 shd be the first proper mass market iteration of Guardian hardware / software with easier & faster installation & integration with other systems.
Thirdly, Mobileye had been a bit detached from DMS [focus being on full autonomy] so important sea change
Fourth, no Cipia [with whom Mobileye had a prior relationship & both are Israeli businesses]
Fifth, where does this leave SmartEye?
https://seeingmachines.com/guardian-of-the-long-haul-galaxy-a-dms-to-change-the-game-for-driver-safety/
posted today on the website.
The news about Mobileye today is obviously amazing! This is the propellant that Fleet needs to go BIG. It has to go BIG - or what was the point? The potential market is so large & also highly profitable on the scale up. Given the insurance savings alone, only a nutcase wd fail to install Guardian.
With Mobileye, the scale up can begin
modest guy - thank you!
Consider the significance of that info: 46% of truck drivers suffer micro sleeps.
That means all truck drivers are at risk
That means any truck at any time may be driven by someone who is asleep. Think of lorry, the load, the weight & the carnage involved. Statistically 5x the fatalities when accidents involve lorries.
Target market really is 300 million commercial vans, trucks etc.
Not saying Guardian3 will succeed in realising this vast market.
BUT SOMEBODY REALLY IS GOING TO NEED TO ADDRESS THIS CRAZY SITUATION.
So over to SEE! What the **** are you waiting for?? Go for it - it is waiting to happen.
Every time the FD buys, the PIs sell. My money is on the FD - I think he is smart.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/seeing-machines-SEE/share-news/Seeing-Machines-Limited-Director-PDMR-Shareholding/90054386
Following these purchases, Mr Ive is now beneficially interested in 3,574,987 Ordinary Shares
Do you really suppose that there will not be mass adoption over the next 5 years as per McGlone's market size by 2028 of 70m DMS systems pa?
If so, why won't SEE take a major chunk? Who else looks serious?
If so, the period has begun.