Thanks...so you're suggesting that it's a temporary blip due to top slicing as opposed to a fundamental problem, which has yet to be reported? It;s had a good ride and I can imagine that people are selling on results day as nothing out of the ordinary, going forward, was discussed.
This sell tip is not a zero. I do not expect it to go bust as its boss, Dave Richards, is a fellow who always seems able to raise money and to do so at full prices. But the valuation of Wandisco (WAND) is just plain bonkers.
Wandisco describes itself as a data activation platform. Right from its IPO getgo it has been announcing big contract wins and, to be fair the wins are getting bigger. But that has not translated into cash generation. As at June 30 2022 cumulative losses had reached $191 million. They will be higher now. The company listed in June 2012 so after 10 years on the market it is still loss making.
Now call me a dinosaur who has not got a clue about the new economy but surely the point of companies is to generate cash nit to burn it with *** abandon?
At 30 June cash was $32.7 million with trade receivables at $12.5 million. By the end of the third quarter despite all those contract wins, revenue growth yadda, yadda, yadda, cash had fallen to $26.3 million with trade receivables down to $10.3 million implying, ceteris paribus, an underlying three month cashburn of $8.6 million.
I suggest to you that, however many contracts Richard conjures up, however many costs he capitalises, before the company becomes cash generative as opposed to cash guzzling, it will need to raise fresh equity yet again.
Meanwhile the valuation is insane. At 935p the market cap is £616 million ( $742 million). For a company guzzling $8.6 million of cash per quarter and with cash likely to be sub $20 million by the year end, that is bonkers. Wandisco likes to tease the bulls by talking about its large bookings but its actual revenues are pitiful, in H1 they were just $5.8 million.
Most new economy unicorns have seen their valuations slashed as folks realised that the emperors new clothes were not that impressive. Somehow Wandisco has escaped the carnage in 2022. In 2023 as it races towards yet another bailout fund raise surely reality will strike, investors will wake up and smell the coffee and realise that the current valuation is bonkers.
A SELL on Wandisco at 935p is my third tip of the year.
Consequently, WANdisco said the irregularities will "significantly impact" its cash position and lead to "material uncertainty" regarding its overall financial position.
The firm now expects that financial 2022 revenue could be as low as USD9 million, and not USD24 million as previously expected. In addition, the company said it has "no confidence" in its announced financial 2022 bookings expectations.
So, your options are simply that you will see the sp drop considerably when it goes live again.
A great analysis. Unlike some, who ramp a share to death, or who ask why has the share price gone up so much in a day (err, read the RNSs) you have given a fair appraisal of the current situation. Irrespective of what a company will do, if punters do not wish to take risk, then they will move away from a share. Now this can be due to macro or micro issues. Listening to various American commentators, they mostly suggest that the world should be in recession now. However, the markets say different. TUI is still in the mire with the debt that has been piled on it, but, there is light at the end of the tunnel as travel stocks, which have taken a while to increase after the Covid issue, appear to be enjoying a breath of life again. So I, probably like you, am bullish. BUT, I am still concerned about the Russia situation, which if it goes pear shaped, could see an immediate drop in markets, which will also take TUI down too.
Have a good wochenende!
Agreement with WSF to replace state aid - AGM decides on reverse stock split as basis for planned capital increase
In the previous financial year, the TUI Group had already started to repay the first aid granted by the state during the pandemic. The aim is to repay all government loans and credit lines as quickly as possible. Due to the very good and sustainable operating performance, in particular in the past summer 2022, TUI reached an agreement with the economic stabilisation fund in December on the conditions for a full repayment of the remaining WSF aid. The agreement also allows for a further substantial repayment of KfW's credit lines. Mathias Kiep, Chief Financial Officer of TUI Group: "Together with the WSF, we have agreed on a structured path for the repayments. 2023 is a year of transformation in which we will implement this consistently. It is still important for us to strengthen the balance sheet, i.e. we want to lower our net debt and reduce interest costs. We will replace state aid and make TUI fit for profitable growth. Now is the right time to take these steps."
The agreement with the WSF is the basis for the corresponding resolutions by today's virtual TUI AGM. The agreement sets out the terms and conditions for the repayment of Silent Participation I for a nominal amount of 420 million euros and the remaining part of a warrant bond subscribed by WSF for a nominal amount of 59 million euros as well as accrued interest. The state waives the right to convert the two instruments into shares in TUI at €1.00 per share until the end of 2023 to enable the repayment. Independently of the agreement with WSF, TUI also plans to successively and substantially reduce the existing credit lines with KfW. A capital increase with subscription rights is planned to finance the repayments. The corresponding capital has already been approved at the 2022 Annual General Meeting. In order to successfully implement the capital increase, TUI AG's share capital must first be reduced and the existing number of shares must be reduced accordingly through a consolidation of shares. The measure creates a better starting position for TUI's refinancing. TUI shareholders will vote on this step at the Annual General Meeting today
Frankfurt. The plan is radical: on Tuesday, the shareholders of the travel group Tui, which has been hit by the pandemic, will meet. The most important item on the agenda of the virtual AGM: the vote on a ten-to-one capital reduction. After that, Tui wants to increase the capital - by up to 1.8 billion euros.
There is much to suggest that shareholders will approve the plan. This is not the first time that the company has put its shareholders under strain. It is already the fourth capital increase within a few years. The company has raised a good two billion euros in equity capital this way.
With the current measure, the management around CEO Sebastian Ebel wants to shake off the consequences of the pandemic and pay off the remaining state aid. The company had received 4.3 billion euros from the state in several steps. Some of the aid has already been returned.
TUI on Tuesday, 14 February, will provide a first-quarter update that follows up from an upbeat final results statement in December.
The Anglo-German travel group confirmed at the time that it was planning a rights issue to pay back state aid received from the German government during the pandemic, with around €737mln still owed, though that could rise to a possible maximum €957mn depending on its share price.
Otherwise, the update confirmed holiday demand was recovering well, with a swing back to underlying profits for the year to end-September, a reduction in net debt to €3.4bn and prices up 28% for the winter season.
"TUI isn’t yet basking on a sun lounger, but it’s benefiting from a take-off in bookings and, finally, pent-up demand has moved the travel giant out of the emergency exit row," said analyst Susannah Streeter at Hargreaves Lansdown.
The recent welcome rays of recovery from the industry, backed up by the recent results from European airlines "bodes well for the sun to keep shining for TUI", she added.
"All segments of the business have returned to profits for the first time since the pandemic and investors will be keeping a close watch on that trend continuing, especially given the debt and state aid TUI took on during the pandemic."
But Streeter said the continued household squeeze will mean its not going to be a completely smooth journey ahead, as holidaymakers sniff out the best deals and perhaps favour a DIY booking approach, which could provide a headwind.
Sorry, but been here for too long to be bullish prior to a rights issue. But, once announced and the sp readjusts then I will pile in as this company will do very well. Shame that the Bundestag aren't content with converting their debt into equity. Ach, ja!
I too have been sniffing around since Tone's presentation at that s****y hotel in London. I like his dreams and the share volatility. let's hope that our noses are nor put out of joint! And , after my yomp around the Ruhrgebeit today, I bought loads more!
Mole. Perhaps a take over would be good for future prospects?
Share Sub-Division
The cost of a single Share of the Company is significantly higher than most investment companies
traded on the London Stock Exchange. Accordingly, the Company proposes that each Share should
be sub-divided into ten Shares of the same currency class so that the cost per Share is closer to
the market standard and which, therefore, should facilitate the acquisition of smaller numbers of
Shares and thereby further increase market liquidity. The Share Sub-Division is subject to
Shareholder approval at the Extraordinary General Meeting and is conditional upon the sub-divided
Shares arising pursuant to the Share Sub-Division being admitted to the premium listing segment of
the Official List of the FCA and to trading on London Stock Exchange plc’s Main Market for listed
securities (“Admission”)