Member Info for ChrisToffer

How did the SP drop on Stephen Holgates comments? Did he make them at the top of the spike at 0930 today?

You're correct Ghia, there is legislation prohibiting the promotion of unlicenced drugs. To run a promotion campaign for the home trial would be a minefield.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/824778/Blue_Guide.pdf

Investowin, yes I think there is scope there for joining international trials like Activ-2/Warpspeed. If they are backed by US gov in doing so then you would expect some sort of concession for inclusion. However any concessions would open up the US market therefore I would think it would be in the interest of us (as shareholders).

Mat, I don't think placement money would be funding a US home trial, it would need huge funding. That's what NAIAD are for.

The contract with parexel? Its on the 14th October RNS. Parexel are running the P3 trial

Hi Mat, what makes you think that it wouldn't start until completion of the home trial here? In my mind, once the company receives IND approval its all systems go

Thanks for the update CW! Hope the're all on the road to recovery!

I don't imagine vaccines will fail Doc but i think you're placing a little too much faith in them to suggest that, globally, ICU beds will be empty by summer. This is not black and white answer where vaccines fix this problem. It'll need all sorts and when RM said that they expect to be treating patients in UK hospitals next winter, I (unfortunately for those patients) believe him.

Doc, 'ICU units will be empty long before the summer holidays. Ox/Az alone will produce at least 1 billion doses next year.'

Isn't that a contradiction? Is 1 Billion doses enough to empty ICU's by June?

By holding out to the bitter end, do you mean Q2/Q3 2021 when, as RM puts it, the window for licencing the drug is open?

In the meantime, conditional offers coming in from government(s), coupled with the realisation that 100k a month isn't that much in a global market, could see demand outstrip supply even before the approval arrives. If that is reinforced by positive home results which prove SNG001 to be the first home treatment for Covid then we may see licencing sooner.

There's a lot more that can go in SNG's favour here than we think over the next couple of week & months.

If it gets to £5 its going well beyond it. For SNG to reach a billion mcap the prospect would be completely de-risked and if that's the case it's gonna be worth a lot more than 1B.

They might not even need P3 results to lift the SP. One pre-order from a wealthy government and this is flying past the placing price.

davidpqz filtered, go do some research!

Shemar filtered
Tiger2009 filtered

I completely agree with you Greggs. As much as current sentiment is questioning resolve, RM/SNG have made it clear what kind of value their looking for and you'd be brave to bet against them over the next few months.

Shemar, Of course this is not the only treatment in development but instead of throwing out generic numbers can you point to one of those treatments in development that has had P2 peer reviewed results that are more promising than SNG001?

Hi Dave, they are usually pretty quick at updating the website following any Tr-1s

It wasn't just that Doc. RM was talking about the broker notes and how they got to that kind of forecast. RM quoted the broker reps by name so it was pretty clear that they took advice from him on the price. There may be adjustment based on agreements but, unless its a developing country, it'll not be less than £100/dose (£1400/treatment) which is still 1.68 Billion in annual revenue.

Seb the pricing, demand and market for SNG is not determined by market sentiment. Time will tell if they get their projection of 100k treatments a month correct but i suspect, based on form, they'll not be far off.

No worries, hope your nephew feels better soon!