Member Info for chestermikeb

Hey mole_man, I had similar thoughts here. Also once the economy starts to get back into recovery mode, there's going to be a lot of new startups businesses who are all going to need flexible office space. WKP is ideally placed to provide it.

Hi TimBob
Thanks for the reply. You are right that this board seems a bit quiet. Not necessarily too bad a thing though.

Yeah the company's focus on the out-of-town warehousing space has been a fortuatous one and now that lockdown is being eased, I can see things starting to improve again here.

Looking forward to those monthly divis!

Just bought in here today. Good management team with a great track record, decent strategy, and regular dividends. Perhaps a little over-exposed to retail sector, at a time when retail is taking a battering, but given that their focus is on out-of-town warehouse businesses, these should do well during Covid-19 as shopping habits have moved and continue to move to the online-shopping space.

FFS, so whats the bet that the 2.2p "discount" will actually be a 2.2p "premium" by the time the 22nd June rolls around?

Just wanted to drop this in here as a bit of extra relevant info. I emailed Colm about this a few weeks ago with similar questions about funding to your own. This was his response to the funding question.

"Gas flow rates are not having any impact on project financing. Based on our gas reserves (and particularly that they are independently certified) financiers have not had any concerns about gas.

Financiers are keen to see a pathway to revenue (even if this is initially small) to reassure them of Tlou’s ability to repay debt. Although initial generation is planned up to 2MW, part of the proposals being discussed include an interest moratorium for the first 12-24 months, where interest would be rolled up into the principal rather than having to be repaid in cash. This would facilitate cash flow for Tlou and ideally aid expansion beyond 2MW."

I too am fed up with staring at a massive negative value on my portfolio, and really want this to shoot upwards, but being realistic my new view is that it probably won't for some time.

Can I ask a genuine question though about the interim PPA (which isn't actually signed yet?). What actually does that mean in practice? Is it basically saying that the Bots Gov are agreeing to buy the power that we are currently making from our own generators or that they agree to buy power from us once connected to the grid? Sorry if thats obvious but I am a bit unsure about what benefit exactly its bringing/going to bring.

@NoEasy I'm wandering if you posted your questions to the company directly? If so have you received a response yet? Thanks

Olda, yeah I know. I am (and have been) kicking myself for weeks about not selling some of my holding during the fall in share price. This latest drop has me hovering over the sell button...

Looking at this from an investment perspective technically nothing has changed, in fact I'd say the news in the latest RNS was really positive. Flow rates are higher and more stable, no blockages or blowouts. Higher dewatering time could mean much higher flows once achieved. Government are on board and appear to be kicking BPC into gear to get a move on. We already have a huge local investment from the Botswana pension fund and we're looking to get more buy-in from local companies and investors etc. Plus other plus points like solar, local community projects etc.

But the time involved is just mental.

If you are able to just ignore all the ups and downs then I still am sure it will pay off....but after 3+ years I am starting to lose sight of that now. Just gott switch off from it all...

This line in the RNS gives me hope....
"If necessary, the Company has the flexibility to reduce costs while waiting on key events to occur. "
But what that means in practice, I'm not sure.

How far underwater are you BTS? I'm down over 50% here and I must admit I feel like I should have sold up a while ago...but on the other hand I also feel that technically nothing has changed.

Time is the killer here because the threat of yet more dilution is hanging over us, albeit (hopefully) a fair way off yet. One thing I'm still clinging to is that Tony has a huge personal investment in this venture and massive amounts of "skin in the game". People are blaming the BOD but to be honest I am not sure what else they could do. The BG on the other hand....hmmm. But they are not answerable to us so its out of our hands....just have to wait.

Ultimately what others have said here is true, the story hasn't really changed. However the share price has....massively.

They way I see this is actually a pretty big buying opportunity if you have the available cash. I just wish I had more money to invest becuase this share price is pretty rediculous.

I remember that too, but as I recall, the company was engaged in some very high cost activities at the time (core drilling etc) and ASX were basing their annual expenses on those 1-2 months outgoings...which of course wouldn't have been maintainable for the long term.

Costs right now must be next to nothing other than wages.

Well, that price drop is a kick in the teeth..even though there is nothing particularly new or actually very surprising in that RNS. I mean, its a quarterly operational update...you don't tend to get big news in quarterlies. If there had been any material news in the mean time they'd have reported it in a separate RNS. The main issue here is just the "lack" of any material news.

I've always been quite bullish on Tlou and I still think there is a lot of potential here...particularly for anybody buying in right now...however for those of us who bought in significantly higher, this is not a good day.

I keep reminding myself of the positives here (of which there are many), but have to admit that today I feel quite despondant. I hope those of you like me who are somewhat "stuck" here, don't feel too miserable about this. Remember, nothing has actually changed today, other than time passing. The price drop is hopefully a temporary rut in the road. GLA

Hi all, thanks for the replies.

Sorry if I got the technical terminology wrong, but to clarify, the RNS states the following:
"...the pods are now producing sustained gas flows with initial rates of approximately 20 Mcfd from each pod..."

And from the March 2019 Operations Update:
"The two development pods (comprising three wells in each pod) have been completed and are de-watering prior to controlled gas being produced"

So wouldn't that be 20Mcfd per pod? (40Mcfd from 6 wells?)

You are correct though that I should probably just email this question to the company to get an official line on the expectations. I'll let you know if I hear anything back regarding that.

Thanks again. GLA

Can I ask a question...because its something I've been a bit usnsure about since the initial flow rates were announced:

Is the figure of 20 Mcfd per pod actually not quite low? I realise the flow rate will increase with time, but how much of an increase are we realistically expecting? Looking back at the data for the selemo pilot, that achieved a peak production rate of 395 Mcfd, but I can't find data on what the initial flow was from that pod.

Can anyone with more technical knowledge fill me in on that? Cheers.

If memory serves, I think the reason they couldn't stay suspended any longer than they did was due to AIM rules which state that if a company remains suspended for more than 6 months (I think) then they have to de-list and re-apply for listing when the suspension is to be lifted...which I'm guessing would not have been a pretty sight either?

Agreed JC. Has anybody asked the company this question? Was anyone at the AGM recently and was this subject mentioned at all? From the sound of some of the posts here it seems the company are being a little tight lipped these days...

Hi BTS
Your post made me think back to my reasoning for investing in Tlou (also over 3 years ago). I agree with you that at times its been a very frustrating share to hold, but I (perhaps unlike you) am very comfortable with my holding here, particularly given the recently approved RFP, which was my biggest concern to date. In some ways, I don't mind the price dropping a bit now because I am tempted to top up again in the future and would quite like a lower entry point :)

Looking back at the share price over the last 3 years, I do sometimes kick myself for not selling at the 17p mark (Which I seriously considered doing at the time) but because I could see the long term gains being far greater, I decided to hold on for the long term.

I often like to revist this page which was from a LTH of Sunshine Gas (one of Tony's earlier successes) and I find it interesting to note the time frames involved there.
https://tlouenergy.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/sunshine-gas-timeline.pdf

As you can see, the timeline in the post spans about 7 years, but shareholders were handsomly rewarded in the end. I know this is a completely different company and the situation to Tlou, but I find it quite comforting to review these timelines every now and again and rest assured that Tlou have actually achieved pretty much every milstone that they have set themselves. OK things have taken longer than expected (not Tlou's fault I might add) and the share price is stupidly low, but at the same time, I am confident that things will change. I believe that once flow rates are known, we'll start to see things turn around again.

Stay confident and enjoy your retirement! :)

The reason the company didn't ask for more was because they didn't want to tie themselves into a fixed sale price at this stage. They anticipate that the unit price of energy will increase over time as demand continues to increase in Botswana and therefore when they come to negotiating further power sale agreements down the line, they will be able to sell at the going rate which should be much higher than it is now.

To me this speaks volumes because the company clearly have a long term plan for Tlou and aren't only interested in short term gains.

For me personally I couldn't be happier about this award. I am however not surprised by the reaction, given that many posters on this forum have been saying that they expected a 50-50 split of the award. However the company have always been really clear on this from the beginning that this was never their plan.

GLA and keep the faith. It'll be worth it!

Been underwater for a long time here and finally popped my head above water today! Awesome, things are clearly on the up again at last! Although like many others on here, I for one will not be selling for quite some time yet...SP is still crazy cheap.