Member Info for chester18

I realise that it's frustrating, to be once again waiting for SP moving news.

Medical breakthroughs, the type that Scancell are attempting, can take many years to cross the threshold of 'science hope' to 'accepted and valuable science fact'.

There are two facts that we need to acknowledge:

1) Without Vulpes £4.5m and subsequently Redmiles £40m Scancell would be many many years behind where we are. Those two investments were crucial in paving the way to afford both trials and bringing many functions in-house.

Also to attract the quality of staff we now take for granted.

2) Both Scib1 and Modi1 have had to start in populations of very poorly cancer patients. We long term holders all hoped that Moditope would be the new miracle treatment for human cancers after the outstanding lab tests on mice.

In time we may find that Moditope is what we wished for when treating very early cancers but that has to come after it has proven itself to a population of patients that are willing to take the risk. The terminally ill.

Looking backwards from where we currently are, you can see that it was inevitable that we needed the influx of large funds and poorly patients willing to be our guinea-pigs.

As far as I'm concerned the results so far are outstanding considering the challenges facing a new drug. The fact that Standard of Care 'Checkpoints' have also allowed Scib1 to do its best work is also a matter of very fortunate timing.

Chester.

From the AGM we know that the 1st Neoadjuvant patient was given their first MODI1 injection just a few days after the AGM. That very first patient should have their tumour removed at the very end of January or the first week of February.

This Cohort requires 15 patients in both, with and without the addition of the single checkpoint. I have no idea of how many patients can be treated each month but I'll guess at 6 per month, that will take us to April / May with a read out sometime in June or July.

The next 3 to 6 months are packed with potential news and results to finally unshackle the SP.

Chester.

Posted back in Feb 2023 :

We have four GlyMab collaborations. I presume the GenMab one was the first back in September 2019.

The second announced on the 16th December 2019 was with a Chinese BioTech.

The third 20th January 2020 with a US Based Clinical Stage Antibody company.

Then the pandemic shut everything down for a year at least.

The fourth and most recent 17th March 2022 with a Major European Pharma.

Bringing that list up-to-date we need to add in the announcement back in June that a new Biotech / Pharma Co was doing a six month evaluation.

Chester.

Morning Burble

Thank you for your thoughts on my questions.

The fact that we can make any significant dents in these hard to treat late stage cancers is a credit to Scancell's science.

I'm reminded that the journey of Checkpoints was a hard sell in the mid-90's.

mRMA is the current in-vogue path to treatments and cures but maybe Immunobody and Moditope with continued success will supplant any in oncology.

I hope that there is sufficient interest in our GlyMabs to win at least one new customer in 2024. I think AvidiMab will be a great success but it will take many months of laboratory work to prove up and achieve the first deal. After the first one is over the line there could be many more.

Again thank you for your insights.

Chester.

Hi Burble

There is a kind of blinkered view that mRNA is the way forward. That's where the money is and that's why the scientific talent is being drawn towards it.

In late stage cancer tumours Modi1 in monotherapy has found it difficult to mount enough of an attack to overcome the vastly mutated micro-biome. It would be very interesting to see how it performed at a much earlier phase of a tumours development.

Do you agree that it's because Scancell are having to start with the most difficult stage cancers that we are flying so under the radar.

Chester.

Thanks Ray,

So the idea of 30 patients is a threshold where the the sample size is not thought of as being to Small to be representative of larger group study outcomes. That makes sense.

Large Pharma probably just use it as 'Risk Guide' when considering early clinical data. They do seem to suffer from the 'Fear of Missing Out'. To understand where Scancell are we need to see at least 30 to 40 patient outcomes and if we are still hitting that 80% to 85% range then job done in a very positive way.

Chester.

Hi Ray

Yes, my thoughts are that at the AGM LD said it was 11 out of 13 that had responded.

One of the 2 was Progressive and had left the trial and the other had reached a 24% response which is classed as Stable. The hope is that that patient would respond further as time goes by and does reach 30% at some point. That would be amazing at 12 out of 13.

The key clinical response would be 27 out of 34 ( 79.4% ) as that would be statistically significant.

13 at the AGM had reach their 12 week 1st Scan, so now, some 7 weeks later it could be, fingers crossed, anywhere from 15 to 18 ish. Obviously it depends on the recruitment timeline.

Chester.

Hi KonarA

No we don't but LD was excited by the prospect when we were awaiting one outcome just after the last update. So I expect that we could have 1 or 2 extra 1st Scans to add to the data.

Chester.

The future for Scancell hinges on progress in the trials and the success of the science 'possibility' becoming science 'fact'.

There are four thresholds that we await to cross, by successfully passing each one the 'what if's' change to 'how encompassing and valuable' will Scancell's Platform's' be.

SCIB1 + CPI : Can the ORR % move into the mid 90's with the remaining patients reaching 1st Scans.

MODI1 + CPI : Is the same uplift in ORR seen in the two remaining Cancer Cohorts, Renal and Head & Neck. If we see that the checkpoints protect the Moditope created 'T' Cells ( as is the case with SCIB1 ) and the battles inside those tumours start to show Stability, Regression and Removal we could move towards another Registration Trial.

MODI1 + CPI Resected Tumours : Will we see the compelling 'T' Cell activity sort after by Large Pharma in those removed tumours. The first of which may be analyse in our lab in the next 3/4 weeks.

iSCIB+ : A few months away yet, but confirmation that it is also non-toxic, it increases the ORR as in SCIB1 and how well does AvidiMab do in increasing the ORR still further or even if it increases the patient pool further.

These four steps forward all added together will mean Scancells potential will not be doubted and should lead to large investors taking positions because the potential of a buy out will become very probable.

Tuesday could begin to throw some light on the direction of travel.

Chester.

TF

If Tuesdays presentation is purely as you say 'to engage with investors or analysts' with nothing new to add to the story so far, I will be very disappointed in their use of management time.

We know that even with 61 staff that they are extremely busy running the trials, engaging with clinicians and developing the science.

What would the rationale behind organising a presentation with nothing new to make it worthwhile ?

You cannot be serious in thinking that my observation is not a valid point to post about.

Chester.

I think there are many of us that feel the tide is forever going out, but, the data coming from Scib1 + checkpoints has so far been outstanding. I cannot see any logical reason to be giving a presentation on Tuesday that is just going over old ground.

As Violindog pointed out, if its not new data who are they trying to engage. The money is in the bank and we know more or less where we are up to on both trials, iSCIB+ has been approved. What else can it be that warrants a presentation.

It has to be an extra bit of something.

Chester.

Ahh !

Very Good point Violindog

I think that line relates to a past presentation only so Bobbust is potentially correct that next Tuesday's presentation could cover both trials.

One thing that I expect is the SCIB1 + CPI will be reporting on a higher number of patients who have had their first scans pushing the Overall Response Rate ( ORR ) over 90% and maybe a little higher.

Chester.

By clicking on the link in the RNS :

https://www.lsegissuerservices.com/spark/ScancellHoldings/events/f581274b-146c-4a89-af15-05bcae874775

It does say 'Positive data from Phase 2 SCOPE trial with SCIB1'

Chester.

Hiya Ray

I thought that was Stephenson's Rocket ...... 😄

Chester.

Hi Chelsea7

Its good to have you posting on here again.

I think we are mighty close to our Scancell investments being past the gambling stage.

Two major pieces of news will, to my mind, take the 'what if' worry out of the equation.

1 ) Will the Checkpoint Inhibitors do the same job for MODI1 as they have done for SCIB1 ?

2 ) Does iSCIB+ produce the same of better results as SCIB1 with the Checkpoints and is the 'non-toxicity' the same ?

If we achieve both of the above then the days of 'hoping' Scancell is a good investment are over and we will enter a stage where the question will be, "do we go it alone and become the UK's version of BionTech or what price for a complete by out.

I do hope these things come about and you can get back in early enough to reap the rewards you deserve for all your years of patiently waiting.

Chester.

Hi BOJO

I'm no expert on how BioTech's interact at the enquiry level but we do know that NDA's form a basis for opening discussions. I see no reason why an NDA could not extend to proving the capability of increasing the Avidity of an existing Mab product.

Maybe we are already doing that in-house as part of our sales and marketing budget.

Chester.

Hi VanVan

I've been out all day so only just had chance to respond. I think miavoce's reply is a good part of where we are on the deals front.

My honest take on AvidiMab is that it has the potential to be taken up by dozens of Mab related Biotech and Pharma Companies but it will take time to convince them and then lab test each new product. When the first deal is signed it will give confidence to other Co's to test AvidMab on their products. This process could take another year at least. When AvidiMab has been proven to improve the Avidity of a third party Mab and that translates to better clinical outcomes in an already licensed product, it will lead to even more deals.

The GlyMab situation is different because GenMab have already given the first green light and stumped up £5M to tie up an exclusive deal for a Target ( Oct 22 ). It was way easier to sell that to GenMab because they have known and worked with Scancell for many years. We still need to hear that GenMab are going to enter a Ph1 Trial using our GlyMab Target.

Selling other GlyMabs or 'Target of a GlyMab' will take a lot of time but getting another deal over the line will make the next deal easier and so on.

I'm not convinced we will see much in the way of new deals in 2024 but its pretty obvious that Scancell are already having multiple discussions on both AvidiMab and the GlyMabs, hopefully any potential buyers will be in a rush to get a deal done.

So much can happen this year and let's hope it's at least a continuation of strong and positive results across all cohorts of both trials.

Chester.

Hi VanVan

I agree with you that Scancell has had to react as the science / investment picture changed. Their was a fantastic article linked on here in the last few weeks that talked about the strategy being employed by many BioTechs.

Under the guidance of our new ( 12 months + ) Chairman we have ensured that cash is in place to allow some freedom of choice over the next year and a half.

Our CEO has said a few times that as the trials progress and the data becomes more compelling the deeper any suitor will have to go into their pockets.

It does seem that the SCOPE Trial is on track to produce results that the owner of the Checkpoint Inhibitors will find it almost impossible to resist. If SCIB1 and then iSCIB+ pan out as hoped for in the recent RNS, Bristol Myers Squibb could see an opportunity to be dominant in that market. The addition of AvidiMab would give an extended patent life of 15 years.

If the ModiFY Trial shows similar results in the Checkpoint Inhibitor cohorts both of our platforms will become very coveted by many Large Pharma Cos, as many of them need to build their future pipelines with cutting edge treatments.

As has been the mantra here for many years, what creates the value is 'data data data' and 2024 should see enough clinical results to finally get the share price on its way beyond 30p. Add to that the values of any deals done for either GlyMabs or AvidiMab.

Could be a fantastic year for you if Scancell take off and Greatland Gold start bringing Havieron to life.

Chester.

Great summation to my Question, thanks Ray,

It will be a glorious day when the long dreamed of potential actually translates into to patients being given their lives back. It is one thing to be an investor in Scancells endeavours and not knowing if that day will actually come about.

To be someone told that there is nothing further that can be done in their struggle against their illness and then in the 'last chance saloon' Immunobody gives them back years of life to enjoy with loved ones ....... that is amazing. Where we could be in 5 years time probably looks like science fiction in 2024.

Fingers crossed it comes about and progresses as you have outlined.

Chester.

After re-reading the SCOPE Trial update dated 27th November 23, I have a question ?

Taken from that RNS :

"The SCOPE trial has now successfully transitioned into the second stage, which will recruit a further 27 patients (for a total of 43). The aim is to achieve at least 18 further responses (i.e., 27 responses in total) which would statistically demonstrate that SCIB1, in combination with doublet therapy, exceeds currently achievable ORRs. Recruitment is on track with data available in H1 2024. Based upon the first 13 patients there is a greater than 90% probability that the second phase will also be successful.

If validated in the second stage of the SCOPE trial this will provide confidence to initiate a randomised phase 2/3 adapted registration programme in patients with unresectable melanoma which represents a potential $1.5 billion per annum market. The Phase 2 part of the adapted trial should take 18 months and will likely generate significant partner interest".

So if the success of SCIB1 Monotherapy can open up a $1.5B yearly market, does that mean that if iSCIB+ is just as successful that the yearly market size becomes somewhere around $3.75B ?

Chester.