Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Market definitely thinks I have sold out!.
CM
Hi G.
I'm ok with holding at present.
I knew I wasn't the only one who feels if I buy the price is likely to fall, if I sell the price will go up.
Looks like the mkt couldn't decide today if I had sold up or was holding. A bit of a battle. Maybe some encouragement in that there was some positivity.
CM
Hi portswigger.
The news mentioned led to the share price rising on Friday(?). Since then and indeed since I invested here the share price has only done one thing generally...........fall back. Maybe I was the catalyst for the retrace. A good set of results may help the share price short term, but the results are generally already known. It will be the trading update on the back of the results which will make the difference, one way or the other. I think I invested too soon when the share price had got ahead of itself and should have waited; same as my other holding (TPG).
The markets have been hit today by the worry of another spike in Covid, so BEG is one of many shares affected. I feel I/we have to sit this out. No doubt if I sell out the share price will rise..........so.........what am I bid for my 900 shares?. No, not much invested I know........but less to lose...........and I am happier these days with that.
gla
CM
Spread is unusually large right now of over 4% at just gone 4 pm. Would expect to change somewhat before close, but which way?. 2% would be more in order.
Jimmyloot - good spot.
CM
Very interesting post threeput. Thanks for that.
CM
Robbie Burns, Naked Trader.
Taken from any/all of RB trading diaries:
COPYING TRADES: I can't stop you from copying a trade I made but remember the price may already be a lot higher than I paid indeed I hope it is as buying at good prices is what I do for a living. You may be buying at the top and could easily lose money. Also I can make terrible mistakes and have done in the past. I could also sell before you or before the share tanks. I may still be holding in a year when you sold at a loss. Always do your own research, don't jump in blindly. Market makers are very clever at knowing how to make you pay top dollar and then push you out at a loss. This site is about sensible investment and learning how to trade sensibly and is not a tipping site. Beware. Never push buy on anything till you've done proper research and got yourself a sensible price.
Website to your email PLUS extra trades which do not make it to the
website (a bit higher risk)
If you'd like the website material sent to your mailbox so you
get everything before the site itself is updated every other Thursday
plus one or two exclusive extra higher risk trades not featured on the
site mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com with "email" in the
subject line and I will send you details on how to subscribe.
I have emailed Robbie asking him to send me details of how to subscribe. That may help in finding what price he has bought/sold any shares in a company and when rather than find out he paid 5.95p for TPG when by the time we find out the share price has risen to over 7p or so. RB updates his trading updates every other Thursday, but we know that and have to take that into consideration and the associated risks.
Everoptomistic - I don't understand what you mean by having the benefit of 2 weeks hindsight?. RB will naturally sell before a stop loss kicks in if he believes that is what is necessary. And I know sometimes he is prepared to change his stop loss if it is too near to the trading price and believes it to be right to do so.
RB would always say be prepared to take a small loss before it becomes a large loss; you can always re-invest if things turn. Also never invest more than what you are prepared to lose.
The trades I make I take full responsibility for and blame no one but myself if things go wrong. I use RB Naked Trader as a point of information, research., opinion. I have read 3 of his books which I recommend fully. They are well written and easy to read.
More positively - it is nice to have a day finishing in the blue. Have we worked through the seller?, who knows?. Is it about to show some leg?, again, who knows?. Tomorrow is another day.
gla
CM
An interesting post giving your views. Good to hear from someone who has been invested for some considerable time and has stayed invested.
My investment decision was influenced by Robbie Burns having invested, usually a good sign, but as he would say himself, he too makes mistakes and not to follow him. I don't usually invest in any company with a share price less than at least 20p but this time made an exception; not that I was/am expecting it to jump mega high or be a multi bagger (nearly said multi bugger). Not a huge amount invested but frustrating none the less.
Time will tell. Perhaps patience is needed in large quantities.
Greenspan - you mention about making a massive loss - here is the CFO report regarding it taken from the RNS dated 21 May
Operating loss
The Group has moved from a break-even position in 2018 to record an operating loss of £1.7m in 2019. This was driven largely by the impact of acquisition-related costs that accounting standards require to be written off to profit and loss in the period and masks the strong increase in the underlying profitability of the business. Acquisition costs expensed during the year include:
· transactional costs of £1.5m (2018: £0.7m) related to acquisitions; and
· earn-out provision of £1.6m (2018: £0.6m) relating to Westek, Sapienza and Polaris.
Excluding these acquisition-related costs, the Group would have made an operating profit of £1.4m (2018: £1.3m).
So maybe not as massive as suggested. As I have already said, time will tell what will happen here.
CM
I bought into TPG at 8.25p a couple of weeks ago. Very briefly I was in a very small profit. Over the last few days or so the share price is getting hammered. Always a risk of buying into a company whose share price has risen sharply returning to more of its' norm price I guess. Can't see any short selling on it. Probably got ahead of itself when it reached 9p. Maybe some short term weakness but the rate of fall back is rather alarming. Could do with another positive RNS, although that may just lead to a short term small rise in share price. Sentiment needs to change.
gla
CM
Market makers obviously think I have sold out.............which is why the share price has gone up.
CM
....if I want this to go down it might actually go up!, rather than the other way around?. The share price is not down 4 p today, I'm sure it didn't close at 104.5 p yesterday. I don't know where they get these prices from sometimes. Given up with the meaning of the buying and selling of very small volumes - they must mean something but Heaven knows what. Some folk have tried to interpret them in a particular way as a code but never successfully in my opinion. Maybe someone in the know from being an insider reading this can enlighten us?, or maybe not.
Back at work for the first time on Monday from being furloughed. I am in retail and what I saw/see was/is a pretty sorry story at present. I work in the heart of the Lake District and we are very dependant on tourist trade. With no accommodation open, nor restaurants and pubs retail is going to be severely affected not only short term but at least medium too. This retail atmosphere is not good. There is no queuing outside the shops, the shops are about empty. There are still a lot of frightened people out there. Talk is of 3 Winters, ie Winter 2019/20, Winter (Summer) 2020, followed by Winter 2020/21. I don't think many of the insolvencies have started to come through yet.
Nevermind, we have the U.S Presidential circus to look forward to in the coming months. Trumpty Dumpty will find something to keep our minds off anything else but him.
Good luck all
Regards
CM
Good morning BT.,
Hope all is well with you all and those who have self isolated will be out of isolation in the very near future. It's amazing that we have got to the year 2020 without having a endemic previously since 1918 and how much we have taken for granted. Over time things may well revert to the old normal or pretty close to it I hope because I don't see how things can go on long term as they are now with all the social distancing etc., and in particular the restrictions on visiting folk.
RR has now gone into respite care at a care home but in truth it is unlikely she will return home after 2 falls recently including a stay in hospital for 5 days. Her confusion is no better. Although she seems to be settling in it is still raw with me having to tell her that the time had come for her to leave her home and be properly looked after 24/7. Very difficult to take I can't visit for the foreseeable future.
Good to see GBG holding up. Some good news posted by Alwaysone. I still keep an eye on GBG, like keeping an eye on an old friend, rather like BT, less emphasis on the "old" though!. Would have been far better had I kept my investment in GBG and sold others and not invested in others, but everything is easy in retrospect and with hind sight. There will always be opportunities of course. Had I been coming into investments new now I wonder what I would be thinking?.
Hope everything is good with the new house BT. Have you caught up with all the jobs Mrs. BT has found for you?.
Regards to all and good luck
CM
Thanks for the post anon3. Unfortunately I can't read the full article, think I have to subscribe to the Telegraph. Any chance you can post the last paragraph please?.
There will always be losers whenever any company goes into administration or liquidation and the hardest hit are usually the very ones who can least afford it. Every job lost affects real people with real lives and real needs; they are not just another number. In the case of Carluccios 31 out of the 72 sites were bought, which perhaps they wouldn't have been otherwise; small change to some I know. And some companies do charge a very high fee for their services.
Incidentally, I have been made redundant twice, so I know what it is like being hit by bad news. The first time was the month after I had had a minor heart attack and was off work. I was called in to be given the news. The second time was in the same industry, civil engineering, by the company who had taken over the contract from the first (who had head hunted me back!) and wanted to re-locate everyone with no help to do so. As we all know, companies can be ruthless.
I respect your views anon3, and as I posted previously, I do know where you are coming from.
Regards
CM
Guess one of these days we'll see a change in momentum here. Maybe once lock down has been totally lifted and we can see the full impact on businesses of the virus. I don't wish to see businesses fail but it is inevitable that many will. Support can only last so long. The plaster has to be removed at some time.
Anon3 - I notice that you feel it is immoral that a company should profit from others failures, or at least to a degree. I believe the fact is that there is a need for companies such as BEG to help distressed companies. They try to turn companies around where they can. There is an inevitable cost associated with it naturally. Without the likes of BEG what would these companies do?. I feel very differently about companies who are involved with gambling and tobacco where they are playing on peoples' addictions and to a degree fast fashion where items of clothing are bought and worn once and then thrown away or not worn again at a environmental cost. But I know where you are coming from.
gla
CM
This was on Radio 4 last night:
tps://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000jnbc
One of the contributors is Julie Palmer, Regional Palmer of Begbies Traynor. Worth a listen if not all completely relevant. Hope the link works.
Regards
CM
Thanks for your kind comments folks re care homes, appreciated. My Mum is 94 on Saturday. She has dementia. Trying to get a Covid19 test this evening was like playtime at the zoo, bless her!. Well, not quite perhaps but she didn't understand what was happening or why. These could be her last days in her own home.
Good to see some recovery here late on. I am coming out of furlough on 15 June as will many others. It may be after that we get a better idea of the state of the economy. Surely insolvencies have only been postponed. Certainly things are worse than before lockdown.
Gla
CM
I have more important and pressing things on my mind at present (very old mother having to go into a care home) than BEG share price but disappointed all the same that the price has fallen back again. Guess it has something to do with the govt. providing more help for companies but expected it to be reflected first thing. Perhaps the market thinks the economy is far rosier than we have been led to believe. Doesn't seem to have affected FRP nor MANO.
I haven't a huge amount invested here but could do with a winner. I seem to be picking exactly the right share but not at necessarily at the exactly the right time.
Good luck
CM
The below is taken from Hargreaves Landsdown site yesterday:
Sharecast News) - Insolvency specialist Begbies Traynor said it was well-placed to benefit from a spike in distressed companies following the Covid-19 outbreak.
Updating the market on full-year trading, Aim-listed Begbies - which specialises in business recovery and financial advice as well as property services - said results for the year to 30 April would be "broadly in line" with expectations.
Revenue is forecast to come in around £70m, compared to £60.1m a year earlier, while adjusted pre-tax profits are likely to be around £9.2m, up on 2019's £7.0m.
It conceded that its commercial property valuations and business sales agency teams had "experienced reduced activity levels in April" because of the lockdown.
But in contrast, the business recovery and financial advisory business had performed better, with profits ahead 30% year-on-year. "Insolvency appointments increased through the year prior to any economic impact from the Covid-19 outbreak, which has significantly increased the level of distress in the UK economy," Begbies said.
And looking forward ahead, the firm struck an upbeat note. "In the current economic environment, we expect that our mix of service lines and counter-cyclical focus places the group in a strong position," adding that it expected "progressive increases in the number of insolvencies".
Ric Traynor, executive chairman, said: "We remain well placed, given our strong financial position, the likely impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the UK economy and the counter-cyclical focus of our business."
Shore Capital, which along with Canaccord Genuity is the firm's joint broker, said: "The unprecedented level of government support being offered to keep businesses afloat makes it hard to determine when we will start to see a steady increase in the number of insolvencies. With the largest share of corporate insolvency appoints in the UK in volume terms, Begbies stands well placed to benefit when volumes do eventually pick up.
"The balance sheet is in great shape, with plenty of headroom to fund growth."
I think a lot of yesterdays' negative movement was down to the last paragraph plus its' commercial property valuation and business sales agency being affected by the lockdown. A bit of a lacklustre report. May see more positive reaction once Government support is cut back or abandoned altogether; it can't last for ever.
Good opportunity to add to ones holdings?, quite possibly.
Lets hope for a better day today.
CM
No, neither can I bar say that we have been told it is volatile.
CM
This is Graham Nearys' view on BEG from Stockopdia. today:
(LON:BEG)
Share price: 105p (-4%)
No. of shares: 128 million
Market cap: £134 million
Year-end trading update
Results to April 2020 are "broadly" in line with expectations at this insolvency practitioner and professional services group.
Broadly means "almost" in stock market parlance.
Revenue is a small beat at £70 million, but adjusted PBT is a small miss at £9.2 million.
Net debt is less than £3 million - close enough to zero that it doesn't matter too much at this stage. Cash of £7 million vs. drawn borrowing facilities of £10 million.
Lockdown impact - PBT took a £0.6 million hit from lockdown's effects on some property-related services in the last six weeks of the year. Less work was available in commercial property valuations and business sales.
Business recovery (insolvencies) - this division should be doing very well, and it is. Profit growth of 30% for the year and it was growing even before the lockdown-induced disaster.
Outlook - expects insolvency appointments to keep rising and more disruption to property services, until economic conditions return to normal.
My view - has great momentum and very benign economic conditions, given the nature of what it does. The tailwinds might be priced in at a high-teens P/E multiple.
To me it is the use of the word "broadly" which doesn't help. From memory what it said in the Midas tip on Sunday was pretty much what has been reported. Nothing drastic, but nothing to shout about either when perhaps the market was wanting more. Nothing strange about it when we are living in very sensitive times. Hopefully it will keep its' feet. There may be a write up in the press this coming weekend I guess.
GLA
CM
Hello Theosus, thanks for the post.
Yeap, I've been looking at the naked trader website for some years. I have read 3 of his books. I don't follow him religiously but I like his style of writing and I genuinely believe he isn't pushing anything for his own agenda. He speaks/writes a lot of sense and easy language. I was hoping I may find out how much he paid for FRP, assuming he has. We will no doubt find out in due course.
A little more settle regarding BEG today. Hope it stays that way.
Regards
CM