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I find the language of the union so inflamatory. And they misrepresent the profitability of the company, and describe National Express as greedy. Very political.
Workers should be paid more, yes, of course. But Union has it's own political agenda which is hurting it's own members.
In terms of the share price, it's very difficult, but if you wait till after the pay deal, you may well miss 10-20% upside.
Hopefully they will reach a deal on pay before?
Maybe hedge funds are expecting / have been tipped off of a large gvt block coming?
Totally unfair if so. But that's life.
To be clear this is pure speculation on my part.
Better than expected as expected I guess... Just makes me look across to the Atlantic at stocks like Nvidia and Tesla and think they are so extremely overvalued.
Was the buyback also inline with expectations?
More likely shorts new of a big seller and then got tipped off seller finished. Really low quality.
Totally unfair to retail investors like us.
Many thanks. Much appreciated. I didn't realise I was being diluted. But I think I'll stick with what I have. Such a shame it's so illiquid.
The coil tightens
Agree. This stock is a coiled spring!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/buffett-of-hammersmith-heads-for-exit-at-liontrust-3n7sqv08v
These guys are listed as big holders. Maybe they've been cutting. Might explain relentless weakness.
In my opinion they should sell their US school bus business, and then focus on everything else.
In 2021 First Group sold First Student and First Transit to EQT Infrastructure for $4.6bln.
I think about 75% of that business was school buses - though I am no analyst and this is back of the envelope.
I think First Student had double the North American School buses National Express had. 50% of 75% of 4.6 is $1.725bln or £1.44bln. Even if National Express got a half of that it would be realising value!
Hopefully the company will come out and saying something reassuring.
https://www.socialistparty.org.uk/articles/107369/08-02-2023/national-express-west-midlands-workers-prepare-to-fight/
Found this negative article. I own NEX shares. Agree workers should be paid more. I trust management to sort things out. I don't trust the union who seem politically motivated and phoney.
Today/tomorrow is capitulation for National Express shares in my view. But the panic.
If you look on the holders list. There are a couple of very big holders. Perhaps one is selling down every day for months. Perhaps hedge funds are short because they somehow know there is a big seller. Totally unfair advantage over retail investors who are risking their own money. But that's life! Gotta stay long and strong. This stock will rerate massively to the upside. It should double.
It literally could just be one large seller, selling every day. Stock is so illiquid. Its a real head fake. Sure it's a low margin business. But the revenues are defensive and it should grow quicker than GDP over time. The debt is high, but that was because of covid, and they are locked in at low rates and revenues will be higher than pre-covid soon and they are generating loads of cash and debt will come down and they will start paying a dividend. Stock is trading at the wrong price. This stock could double, even in a down tape. It could also be bid for by PE or a corporate.
Thanks for this. National Express such an outlier. Hopefully they will reach agreement with Unions soon. Earnings will be fine. Dividend reinstated. And stock will rerate. Structural growth here (environment friendly). And recession proof.
Small part of overall business, and temporary problem, but not good.
Union has been using incendiary language in my view and making it very political, misrepresenting NEX profitability, and demonising management which is totally unfair. No one disputes workers need to be paid more.
Does anyone have any idea / insight how this will play out?
The ship is in the harbour and the sails are spread...
WOW. Thats great thanks CraigJD.
JG68 this is great feedback from the company thank you.