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I think they should sell the US school bus business and pay down debt and invest in other faster growing higher yielding businesses.
I think if you are waiting for £1 you may as well buy the stock now.
Reminds me of when the bears were saying that USDGBP was going to parity. And the low was 1.05
PS. High debt in the price. Maybe not in the sentiment, but in the price. This stock will gap up 20%+ in one day and you wont be able to buy it. Can't wait for it to turn.
Hadn't realised stock closed so low yesterday. Very bearish market. Nasdaq needs to adjust back down.
Maybe National Express interesting to takeout. Stock so low. Company recession proof. Secular growth trend.
Thanks QD. I will look into Avidity.
What did you buy Quickdip?
At some time, with everything else going so much higher. National Express will play catch up. I just hope it's because National Express goes up, and not because the other stuff goes down.
I don't want to wait 5 years !!!
If you own National Express now. You are obviously hoping for a turn. The stock has been smashed, it's halved in 12 months, whilst the broader markets have gone up. Clearly things have been bad for the company. And the newsflow and macro economic drivers have been negative. But the argument is that this is IN THE PRICE... and thing should at worst stabilize but in actual fact really get much better from here. As soon as there is a flicker of momentum to debt reduction, increased margins, secular revenue growth, this stock wont just go up a bit, it will fly. You wont be able to buy it. You cannot wait till it turns. That is the bull case.
Asos and Boohoo benefited from Covid and have suffered because of the recovery. They have no moats around their businesses and their revenues have been contracting and their margins are tiny if not negative. Totally different ball game to National Express. Incomparable
Noggers. I don't think they'll have to respray stuff etc. Because they are retaining all brands.
This is clever. When I first looked at National Express, I assumed it was UK. But UK is only 15%.
This name change helps investors understand that the company is a portfolio of mobility assets.
Seems to me that any kind of profit warning / rights issue very very unlikely in the short or medium term now.
Would be crazy to change name and then follow up with that.
Pure speculation obviously.
Yes. I think brokers do this in the background.
I changed a name for a company myself. It costs very little.
National Express brand retained in the UK.
This is a good move.
Reflects the business' ambition for global growth.
https://www.busandcoachbuyer.com/record-numbers-on-manchester-london-services-natex/
Hope so!
In early 2021 First Student sold out to private equity for $4.6bln. Of that, $3.6bln was, I think, for their school business. I think First Student has double the number of school buses to National express. 44,000 compared to 21,500 (2018. can't find numbers now). Rates are higher now, but we are also out of Covid. So it's not crazy to think NEX school bus business alone could be worth $1.8bln or £1.45bln.... that's about double the current market cap. Or 90% of EV...
To be clear, these numbers are pure back of the envelope speculation on my part, just looking on the internet.
Last June National Express had a profit warning, citing margin pressure due to wage inflation.
Since then, the stock has gone -55% from 270 to 120, during this period the ftse has gone up.
Now, almost a year later, the momentum of wage inflation has slowed considerably and price rises for school buses in America will kick in at 13% from September. Fuel costs have also collapsed and borrowing costs stabilised with peak interest rates probably having been seen in the US, at least for now.
There is every chance that the outlook is better than expected for H2.
This stock could fly.
Hope so. Company doing a buyback. Did you see the RNS from April 12th:
"The Board firmly believes that the current market price does not reflect the substantial potential of the large addressable market opportunity of the Group, nor the significant operational progress it has made as it has successfully migrated to a cloud-based SaaS model. This migration further positions the Group to deliver on future growth and enhanced shareholder value."
May 3rd. The last rate hike for the Fed.
A big inflection point for National Express share price.
Share price has halved since a year ago because of margin pressure and debt fears.
Both of these will ease significantly now.
And as we enter recession, National Express top line should be ultra defensive.
Thanks stargate. Technically it does look like a coiled spring.
But I wonder is there any news out, anything fundamental going on as well?
Volume has picked up dramatically.
I feel like I'm in the dark here.
Hi there,
I've been holding this stock for a while and it's been very difficult.
Does anyone know why stock is so strong now?
I can't find any story.
Many thanks