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So I've tried to do some crappy maths and it's probably as bad as fag packet maths, but across the board, we have an average of 31% chance of hitting on each of the 9. So we're looking at 3 successful drills.
I'm not weighting any calculations, but if I take each individual well's chance of success and factor that against the expected MMboe, then take into account the share longboat has of each one of these, we should be looking around 26 MMboe.
And correct me if I'm wrong, but that's worth around $431m at today's prices.
I'm still positive about the long term share price. I'm ****ed off that Helge has gone down the exploration route, but I'll get over that quickly enough.
But what is inexcusable is raising at 75p. It's a middle finger pointed at all of us.
Thanks Paul, good write up, I personally like your fag packet maths.
My fag packet maths says that on average there is a 1/3 chance of any of the 7/8 fields striking black gold. So odds are slightly in our favour for hitting 3 rather than 2.
Obviously anything could happen, but if 3 did come good, this is going to turn into an excellent prospect very quickly. And we don't have that long to wait to find out.
I'm glad to hear it munch, given the odds of hitting on any well, we really should be hitting 2 or 3 pots of gold over the next 12 months.
I had planned on selling when I hit my first bag, but now I'm starting to think more long term. One announcement of a positive drill could be added to a few months or even weeks later by another one.
When I bought in here I was hoping for a quick buck, now I'm here for the long haul, even if it takes a few more years. If we start seeing £8 SP in a few years time, that's an almost life changing amount of money for me. I think it's worth the hodl.
Absolutely Dave, this is why I've stuck it out so long. I don't for one second believe that this is all they're going for, I suspect they've got their fingers in a number of pies.
But even if I'm wrong, this is still 7 drills which should net us 2-3 operational fields at the end of it. I'm ecstatic, I don't know why anyone holding wouldn't be.
Most of the drilling will be done this year. And on average we're looking at a 1/3 chance of success with each drill. So by the end of this year there should be at least one if not two successful hits. I wouldn't be surprised to see a £2.50 - £3.00 SP by December.
Of course it's conjecture. We'll find out in the next few hours if I'm right. Of course they may not come to a settlement even if I'm correct, but only got to hold for a day to see the dizzy heights of 4/5p anyway.
There's a lot in there, but nothing to make me particularly optimistic for a deal in the next couple of months. I reckon we could be holding all year before we get a good deal across the line.
Still holding, but surprised the SP has gone up, would've expected a drop.