Member Info for CF73

For the moment, we're in discussions with two monster companies where, as things stand, they are to keep a minimum of 60%:and us a maximum of 40% of a $billion dollar project which is expected to produce annual revenue of between $250million to $300million, where GE and CMEC lead on the debt financing. They're working on the Financial Model (FM) and should be completed this month. From the May 3rd RNS; ------------------------------- Ncondezi's Non-Executive Chairman, Michael Haworth, commented: "Although still at an early stage, the preliminary results from the updated EPC and O&M information in the FM are positive and allude to the potential for delivery of a more competitive tariff to the Mozambican Government and EDM for approval. This also represents a significant milestone in the Project development process as the Company did not reach this stage of development with its previous potential partner. The next phase of the partner process is to finalise the FM by the end of May 2018, confirming a new tariff envelope which can be submitted to MIREME and EDM during June 2018. Should support be received for the new tariff envelope, the Company believes it will be well positioned to close out the JDA process and progress the Project to Financial Close." ------------------------------- To date, progress has been excellent. Tariff envelope is important and seems we're on target both in terms of project returns (profitability) and being competitive (tariff).

Now that's extremely helpful!

17p about to crack! Gor bless us all!

As things stand, the JDA we're working towards stipulates that 'GE and CMEC lead on the debt financing, in conjunction with NCCL' (as per RNS 20th Oct 2017). With binding JDA signing by July and Financial Close later in Q4 (with percentages yet to be announced as well), I don't think such a time line would've agreed if securing the financing was a major issue.

Lurker, actually in that 'slug- read' as you call, Hanno was drawing attention to some of the aspects you raise (and which gods did as well), showing that they are mindful of it - clearly - and that progress us good. Hanno talked ensuring 'returns' and about the financial model. Fair enough, hadn't answers all the areas you talked about but clearly drew attention to some

Continued: ��we have now submitted our model to our partners who are reviewing the results of that model. There will probably be some more optimisation discussion to see if we can further improve on certain things, and there�ll be probably some Q&A sessions on the results as well. The objective is to get sign off from our partners, on the results of the model. At which point we will submit it to government, to get support for the new tariff envelope. In terms of timing, the good regular news-flow coming. We�re hoping to have the financial model signed off in May. We will then go to government in June. And then subject to all the necessary approvals, from government, to move ahead, we should then be a in a solid position to finalise the Joint Development Agreement with our partners in July. Lots of news flow. Lots of work to do over the coming months. A very exciting period for us.�

Lurker, we'll be hearing about the financial model this month, as per podcast. You need to listen to the most recent podcast. Sounds as if you haven't and so would benefit from doing so. I'm posting the transcript below (apologies gods as you been through this already but is for the benefit of others). It addresses many of these issues you raise (and by that podcast, it seems that the modelling is working, both in terms of returns on investment and tariff); --------------------- �Updating of our integrated financial model, to reconfirm the project economics. And really critical to that process was receiving updated EPC and O&M from our partners. EPC and O&M is a power term for basically the CAPEX and OPEX assumptions that go into your financial model, and then provide you with the project economics and crucially your tariff target envelope to deliver on those economics. And really this is a major milestone for us because we�ve basically received the information over the course of he last two months, we�ve now been in a position to update the financial model, get a sense of how big is, what it�s returns look like, and what sort of tariff envelope we need to agree with the Mozambique government in order to receive those returns. Anyway. we received that information just over ten days ago. We�ve been able to turn it around very quickly, internally update our model. The initial results from that model are positive in that not only are we getting the target results we were after in terms of project returns, importantly we�ve come with a more competitive offer in terms of what tariff we can go back to government with, to finalise the power offtake agreement, which will be a 25year offtake agreement. And that�s been very crucial for us because it means we�re going to go back to government with a more competitive bid than we previously had agreed with government. That�s very important allowing us to drive the incentive with government to approve the project and move forward. We�re obviously very excited at this stage. �We previously work with another Chinese partner that we terminated discussions with, about this time last year. That followed a three-year project with that partner. And I�m really happy to say that where we have got to with GE and CMEC at this stage currently in the development process is further than we ever achieved with our previous partners. We�re more advanced than we�ve ever been, to date. Results are looking good. And with everything going on in Mozambique, with Tariff pressures that the region are experiencing, and for us to come back with an even more competitive Tariff, is very exciting.�

We have major news every month to binding JDA. News on financial model this month, so a matter of a week or so, if not days. We already know from the podcast the modelling has led to a more competitive tariff than they'd initially approached the authorities with, so all looking extremely good. Good luck folks!

Hanno mentioned projected annual revenue of $250million to $300million. Imagine if we could retain 40%. But don't think we will. Worth looking at numbers posted by Laxey and others. Historic costs in the orrder if £60million plus, to be returned to us, and then add percentages of subsequent JV and/or whatever amounts given up. Whatever way it works out, it's all in our favour. As things stand, JDA with historic costs (£60million hard cash) and 40% retention of project (to produce annual revenue upwards of $300million) would value as at least £150million to start with. That's an SP of 55p to 60p. I would say that's minimum. IMHO DYOR

Ruddy good work everyone.

Thanks again Dandy! Should crack double digits this week. Good luck all :-)

That's put my questions to rest Dandy. Thanks fella!

Lurker5, thanks for thoughts. You got me thinking as I'd taken certain things for granted perhaps. From the 20th Oct update; -------------------------- "20 October 2017: Ncondezi Energy Limited ("Ncondezi" or the "Company") (AIM: NCCL) is pleased to announce that it has agreed in principle the terms of a Non-Binding Offer ("NBO") with China Machinery Engineering Corporation ("CMEC") and General Electric South Africa (PTY) Limited ("GE") (together the "Consortium") to enter into exclusive negotiations to  develop, construct and operate the integrated Ncondezi 300MW coal fired power project (the "Power Project") and open pit coal mine in Tete, Mozambique (the "Mine Project")( together the "Integrated Project")." [And] "CMEC and GE will be responsible for the engineering, procurement and construction ("EPC") and operations and maintenance ("O&M") for the Integrated Project on a build own operate basis." -------------------------- The term 'operate' in relation to the coal fired power project and mine project. From the 9th November Update; -------------------------- "Signing of the NBO follows the previous announcement on 20 October 2017 that the parties had agreed in principle the terms of the NBO. As previously announced, the NBO provides for the entry into exclusive negotiations to develop, construct and operate the integrated Ncondezi 300MW coal fired power project (the "Power Project") and open pit coal mine in Tete, Mozambique (the "Mine Project") (together the "Integrated Project")." -------------------------- Again, something about operating the integrated Ncondezi power and mine project. Not sure how far this 'operation' aspect goes into running the plant (whether simply operation within a maintenance context or running the plant, upto gridding, bringing Alstom and other tech into play?). Also, running the power plant may not be as lucrative (though I couldn't say as wouldn't know enough) but after having built it, would seem like easy money to me. Whatever it is that the JDA means, it's worth a lot to us NCCL holders. Open to thoughts and ideas.

Dandy, TTP, really appreciate your contributions, (and brybags and the rest). You guys been here longer than most. Keep those posts coming! It's time we woke the market to this behemoth of a situation :-)

More on the Alstom deal (from 10th May, 2018) and some further thoughts. --------------------------------------- https://www.investors.com/news/ge-general-electric-buying-alstom-energy-joint-ventures/ GE Must Buy Alstom Stakes In Energy Joint Ventures For $3 Billion [...] "General Electric (GE) will buy Alstom's stakes in three energy joint ventures for 2.59 billion euros, equivalent to $3.1 billion, adding to GE's exposure in a struggling market as the French company exercises its right to sell out." --------------------------------------- That last bit, '...adding to GE's exposure in a struggling market', is telling. The only way for GE to address this is to make - if not forcibly create - the market. Third world in particular still need to use their coal to develop - now way getting around it. This is a huge growth area (especially after years of general global decline in coal). However, not easy developing these projects/programmes as they require enormous amounts//Foreign Direct Investment. Very few out there able or prepared to fund these multi-$$$billion projects. But GE and CMEC/China have the money, not just the tech and expertise, to make them happen and decisively -- to forcibly create opportunities in situations usually too challenging for most (thinking about why others such as KIBO and GCM haven't got off the ground). In this context, it we can why GE approached NCCL and why they need to land the project? (and others like it) As Laxey has pointed out numerous times (respect to him for his in-depth knowledge on NCCL), this is why GE are working closely with CMEC and China with their Belt and Road initiative. They've already worked together on other successful projects and will be kick-started more still through this partnership. This is where GE are now clearly focusing their turnaround, having been on this journey 'quietly' for a few years. Going back to the Dec 27th 2017 RNS update --- NCCL commented, "The Company believes it has identified the correct partners to deliver the Project and is focusing all resources on successfully completing the JDA process." NCCL need GE. Clearly! But GE need Ncondezi, too. Is why we've seen no silly games here. Straight, deal-making. GE have arrived meaning business, no funny games, no sly moves, no waiting for an AIM minnow to go broke. Think we'll be bought out, but DYOR. Good luck to all!

Some great articles there Laxey! Wow! You can tell that GE's been keeping a keen on the most viable advanced projects. No wonder they approached NCCL This is happening, no doubts, no concerns. I'm throwing the kitchen sink at this on Monday.

Apologies, should've been a question mark, not a colon ;-)

Come a cropper or crapper:

Haha haha :D

Flippers and accumulation. All interesting stuff!