Member Info for cf456

And a pretty good pattern it is, especially given the market backdrop.

Strong uptrend with the inevitable profit-taking pullbacks along the way.

3m +36.4%
6m + 43.6%
12m +73.7%

Looking forward to the farmout gap up.

"wanted to know about the pipeline and Paradox, i did not like the answer"

Treading a fine line here imo...

"UK MAR prohibits persons in possession of inside information from using that information to deal or attempt to deal in financial instruments or to recommend or induce another person to transact on the basis of inside information."

https://www.fca.org.uk/markets/market-abuse/regulation

https://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/154384_-016_-The-Take-Over_Bookmarked_5.7.21.pdf?v=28Jun2021

When a company is in a bid situation, TR1 holders have to declare their position size.

Nice opportunity to get in on the pullback this morning.

ADVT just bought £24 million worth at £2 and see significant upside from there. The recent trading statements show trading is materially ahead, so there is clear momentum in the business. And the share price has just pulled back from a new yearly high.

Follow the money.

My Investment Returns (Q1 2021): 3 Months That Changed My Life!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMaHsvVKgLY

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/cpt-company/riverfort/

announcement of mature transaction "imminent" according to latest interview

https://twitter.com/power_thompson/status/1313024393229066240/photo/1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXxb67sPjPs

Indeed. Very near term by the sounds of it:

"Truell said it was on the cusp of reversing into a listed cash shell, Sabien"

"Ptarmigan is developing the Evolène Valley (Swiss Canton of Valais), into an exclusive, sustainable world-class Alpine destination.

Ptarmigan has a land bank comprising of 89,000sqm, including development permits in Evolène village – the heart of the valley."

https://www.disruptivecapital.com/portfolio/ptarmigan

RTO imminent then by the sounds of it. Exciting stuff!

The move ties in with what was mentioned in the corporate update on 18th Oct:

"the Board is also examining broadening the Company's reach in the green sector, and in particular the health and medical rehabilitation destination sectors"

https://investegate.co.uk/sabien-technology--snt-/rns/corporate-update/201910181447134319Q

Disruptive Capital certainly know what they're doing.

£1000 invested in 1993 is now £268,300.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z78KureYGas (from 12:24)

"Conclusions

The company aims to consolidate a series of small-to medium-sized consultancies in the €5-€15mln revenue bracket, where there is an opportunity to develop top-line and cost synergies, targeting a consolidated group that is in sum more valuable than its separate parts.

The current enterprise value of ORPH of circa £13mln offers an attractive entry point ahead given the rapid scale-up plans, as well as profitability targeted in H120. On this EV, ORPH has a valuation multiple of only 1.1x trailing twelve-month proforma revenues of €14.3mln (£12.2mln). To give context, peers in the contract research organisation (CRO) sector are valued at 1.5 to 2 times EV/revenues, suggesting that an EV of the business of £18-25mln is justified, with upside as it delivers its revenue scale-up plans."

https://tinyurl.com/s557ulm

https://tinyurl.com/txvofb8

From 12:37 in that interview:

"So when we talk about the value though, the value here is astronomical and I say that kind of wisely. We're targetting to get 10,000 data records within the next 2 years. If you look at precedents in the marketplace, each of those records are valued nominally at about 5000 euros. So the value of the database, assuming there was a linear uptake of the data is 50 million. Now I say that carefully because that's a nominal value. We're assuming there's going to be multiple pharma companies looking at this data at the same time, so there'll be multiples of that value on the database."

Must be getting very close now to that tipping point after which the business really starts to take off.

---

"We've got 227 headsets in the field at the moment. We've got an extra 30 odd that are going in over the next few weeks. And then we've got 118 that are agreed and that will go in place in the next few months, certainly all before the end of the year.” - 2:21

“So we're starting to see this snowball effect. But it's a snowball effect with really high quality partners.” - 2:41

“We'll have about 400 by the end of the year. And as we said in the statement, 400 based on historic, old numbers on our total universe would get us to breakeven. But if you actually look at that on current averages, then that breakeven falls considerably. So our current running average is over £350 per week per headset so that then reduces the breakeven much nearer to 300.” - 2:57

“And obviously once we hit that magical breakeven figure which will be later this year, early next year at the latest, then everything that we do just flows straight to the bottom line.” - 3:32

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ymk2eDp7Rg

"Cathal Friel has invested a couple of million,he has a lot more than that!" - is that just speculation or do you have a link to his net worth?

Retirement age - "Maurice is 57, I'm 54 and Brendan's 67 so we're not going to be in this for a long time." - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix6GhEQYVYQ (from 7:11)

The management is clearly very convinced it can do it, having invested a significant portion of net worth:

“We're very focussed on shareholder returns because the three of us own over 1/3 of the company and we've put most of our life savings into it”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix6GhEQYVYQ (from 21:49)

---

They have also locked themselves in for 3 years with their investments.

So basically all fairly close to retirement age, investing a significant portion of their net worth and not being able to access or use that capital for anything else. They'd only do this if they were very convinced indeed that they could make a decent return.

Good to know at least that the management is highly motivated to engineer a rising share price, whatever that takes.

https://www.digi-capital.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Digi-Capital-AR-VR-Leaders-June-2019.png

Exit target of 200 to 300 million in a couple of years vs. current £16 million market cap. That's a lot of potential share price upside if they get anywhere near that kind of growth.

"We're acquiring the other companies at 1 to 1.5x revenues, so it's the valuation arbitrage. We buy them for 1 to 1.5x and our exit will be 3 to 4x revenues. So if we get it to 50 million turnover, which is the target for 2 years, we'd expect at least 200 if not 300 million exit price."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBogHS5uocM (from 4:28)