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imo, we will either get to next drill with a partner (so money not relevant) or it won't be us that will be doing further drilling after data rooms open. my preference is the first - there are not many investments that offer opportunities that pantheon offer - it's a good investment against inflation having 17 billion barrels to support it and field underneath to prop it up for good measure. not getting ahead of myself till we see the production data. i think we are in good hands.
hi peaky, listening to jay, my understanding (don't quote me) is that he sees two paths to 'glory' - partnership or sellout. with partnership, if my memory serves me, it will only work if partner demonstrates a progressive plan to production (dyor and all that). too often companies make deals and plans get put on hold with bigger partner that result in sp of smaller company being affected. with sellout, the price has to be right so no problem there. regarding my reference to 'window', it's between now and datarooms opening (and weather -not sure if they can drill during winter) which I guessing Q1 latest. imo, it's ulikey a deep drill (near alkaid) would take place if a sound offer is made after data room opens- that's why i say window.
last interview i watched, jay was asked about the 'deep' and he said that focus was on current drill and to complete that before thinking about anything else - i think it has to be on the cards now. if they don't manage it during this window, i don't think we will see it as we will be bought out. the concept of going into production is great, but i think they need a serious partner (which will happen if jay doesn't take the golden handshake later this year) because it will be slow a lot of unnecessary work. it's a big operation for a small operator. i don't see panr becoming an operator unless they have the partner (and the offer will be there).....so going deep makes sense to me, imo.
if i was interiewing jay and bob, i'd ask him if he is going deep on next drill. personally, imo, nothing to gain doing another horizontal drill and future sp has been secured with current drill data - everything to gain and nothing to lose by going for it....i could do with another couple of billion barrels on top of the 17 billion that we have. good luck all.
november ;)...from RNS.
'The operations to date have recovered approximately 10% of the frac fluid used, with oil cuts averaging from 8% to 12%. Typically, a better indication of ultimate production performance can be ascertained after recovering over 40% of the frac fluid, which the Company expects to achieve over the coming weeks.'
jazbo, nice quote - no doubt there will be plenty of visitors to the data room. i guess lots of data to process and samples to analyse from this drill which will take time. hope jay can get the rooms opening in december...santa could be early this year. all we need are good results from us elections and a peaceful resolution to ukraine as a bonus.
peaky, it has to be a high probability. the other side of the coin for me is that they will want to do long term testing on well and also analyse data. what's been interesting is the 'strong' flow and new learnings from reservior- there's lots of vairables that need to be assessed before making any further drills. one conclusion that may drop out is they don't need that many perforations....and the big question - how 'strong' is 'strong'? i think all the major technical hurdles have been crossed and it's now a case of tinkering with optimum conditions for perforating.
sq, you are right. these results are either one step closer to a serious farm-in partner or one step closer to a buy out - the operator's in alaska will know exactly the value of the data that panr are producing and will eagerly be anticipating more. i'm more relaxed than predrill with this data - it's now a case of seeing who is going to lay down the first throw.
that is certainly one interpretation - i read it slightly different. i think the reason they may be having so much sand is that they may need to review the size of the propent they have used in perforation for production. there are 30 perforations over 5 km and rock morphology/porosity will not be completey the same. as other posters have alluded, the sand has likely blocked parts of the production tubing, hence they can't remove all the clean fluids and ahead of the blockage, they are getting oil.
pawn, you are right about patience. with that many perforation, clean-up was always going to take time. i think the major hurdles of uncertainty have been cleared regarding viability and proof of concept. clean ups are standard procedure - just need to let the guys get on with it. imo, the clock has started.
1000s of barrels and strong flow. this is new territory and with it comes new learnings. by the wording, production is much more than anticipated. reading into rns they want to try and evaluate each of the perferations. also, looks like they have undersized the set-up which has impacted on clean-up capability and production....have to wonder, how many thousand barrels of oil this well can produce?
IMO, the extended flaring is normal for current situation as they have 30 perforations to clear. As each perforation is relatively low flow compared to conventional higher pressure wells, each perforation will need tickled into production (which is also normal). The key to producing from lower production wells (perforations) is to bringing them on slowly to minimise damage to perforations/sand stone formation. I think Jay and Team are going to bring this 17 billion barrel monster to life and when it does, everyone will want in on the action. Good luck all.
mlf, i'm with you - although larger would be nicer. this drill is all about proof of concept. if we get a positive result, demonstation of potential profitability - that's all we need and i don't think panr will be here next year. i've been mulling the sell-off from directors last month and looked to find a plausible reasons....it could be cognitive bias ('what the thinkers thinks, the prover proves' as RAW would say)....were they offloading a big tax liability resulting from a potential buy out and at the same time making shares availble for family before the anticipated deal goes through? the majors are making big profits, but the problem for them is protecting these gains from inflation...buying a low politically low risk field containing +17 billion barrels on you back door with an infrastructure to supply the largerst economy in the world would be a good hedge against that.
they are going to take it very slowly to bring well on - there's 30 perforations - any attempt to bring well on too quickly and it could damage some of the perforations resulting in lower production rates. they may even have to do an acid work over to stimulate well before they hit the green button - imo, all this accounts for minor delays and is normal. it's good that this is not being rushed. good luck all......on a side note, saw that the biden regime yesterday said that they are looking to increase US oil production to +13 million a day from 12 million....with those kind of increases, alaska/northern slope must be of strategic importance given the existing infrastructure that is in place which can deliver such an increase. good luck all.