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This is a good visual representation of the Variants and Mutations. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1368430097267580930
B.1.1.7 covers many mutations. Mutations are likely to persist. There is likely insufficient clinical samples present in the UK to allow for B.1.351 "South Africa" Variant LFT testing. However, Affimer proteins are fit to deal with evolving mutations. Affimer protein generation employs a bacterial expression system that allows for quick creation of Affimer proteins with engineered Specificity.
I have not checked into the board for some time but I continue to hold and expect to do so for a very long time. The RNS issued on 16th February - "Results of Initial Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 LFT", was a significant de-risking step.
Thanks,
Celtics.
Hi Harel - Sapote well targets the same Maastrichtian-Campanian interval and potential deep per the presentation.
Rather than taking more time to reprocess and integrate the dataset as well as having an updated CPR before deciding the next drilling targets, JHI Associates have already explicitly outlined in their communication to Shareholders dated 3rd March 2021 that they continue with plans to drill Jabillo and Sapote.
Although these are prospects are independent, there must be some read across from Bulletwood-1 to Jabillo-1 with them a) being prospects at the same intervals and b) in close proximity. Similar to how Tanager-1 was drilled, evaluated and a new CPR on Kaieteur had Kingfisher-6&8 higher-graded.
There was a video previously available on the JHI Associates website (it was removed about 1 month ago) which showed the 3 detailed prospects - Bulletwood, Jabillo and Sapote (including reservoir shapes and actual locations on the block). Bulletwood and Jabillo were were right next to each other with the lower portion of Jabillo under/overlying the upper half of Bulletwood.
Thanks,
Celtics.
What is also important, is that the 3rd March 2021 Shareholder communication from JHI Associates outlines that Exxon will still pursue the drilling of the independent prospects of Jabillo-1 and Sapote-1 over the following months.
Data from Bulletwood-1 would provide some read across and indication to Jabillo-1 with its close proximity and interval similarities. Bulletwood-1 was a channel complex of "Maastrichtian-Campanian age" per the Tanager-1 RNS that Westmount Energy issued (https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/WTE/tanager-1-results/14758511). Jabillo also targets those same intervals, that is "Maastrichtian-Campanian" per a Shareholder presentation on the Westmount Energy website.
With JHI Associates now outlining that it intends to continue its exploration drilling program with Jabillo-1 following the Bulletwood-1 drill result, there must be some degree of confidence that the Jabillo-1 well will return a commercial result otherwise they would have taken more time to calibrate and integrate the data to select better target(s).
thanks,
Celtics.
A disappointing update, but pleased that Westmount Energy has updated Shareholders.
I hope Westmount Energy is able to disclose how many meters of net oil pay were identified at some point in a future update, in the case of Tanager-1, Westmount Energy was able to disclose that 16 meters of net oil pay was discovered and a published CPR confirmed about 43M recoverable barrels of oil on Kaieteur.
In summary, with JHI Associates carried on 3 more wells, Exxon has real drilling data from Bulletwood that will help guide them on their next well on the Canje block.
What's important for me at this stage is that this block contains oil.
Ranger-1 a Commercial discovery was far outward and at similar water depth (2735 meters).
Secondly, the updated CPR on Kaieteur published by Ratio Petroleum, indicates that Kingfisher-6&8 potentially holds 450M+ recoverable barrels of oil that is in close proximity to Tanager and has a COS at 57%.
It's a sit and wait for me. I do believe Exxon will find a commercial discovery at some point outside the Stabroek block in Canje.
thanks,
Celtics.
I do expect an Update from Westmount Energy to be released before the end of the week since Exxon has now publicly announced that "quality reservoirs and hydrocarbons identified".
Westmount Energy would no doubt have already enquired directly to JHI Associates with regard to the Bulletwood-1 well result and JHI Associates would have already informed its Shareholders privately in a letter to Shareholders. My expectation is that Westmount Energy is now awaiting permission from JHI Associates to publicly disclose the well result to its Shareholders.
Thanks,
Celtics.
Jabillo-1 and Bulletwood-1 wells almost overlap each other. If Jabillo-1 is also a find then I believe that region could be a hub for development. Hopefully, there will be some light on the call indicating the size of Bulletwood-1.
thanks,
Celtics.
Size of the discovery must still be under evaluation.
Canje was noted first in the sentence (before Kaieteur and Suriname) which to me indicates that it is more significant than those other finds i.e. Tanager-1 and Sloanae-1.
"Quality reservoirs and hydrocarbons identified in first wells in Canje, Kaieteur, and Suriname".
We will have to wait and listen.
thanks,
Celtics.
Investor Days (sometimes known as "Analyst Meeting" or "Capital Markets Day") are a significant event that Exxon has conducted annually in the past.
In my opinion, if the well was unsuccessful I believe that Exxon would have taken the opportunity to notify the market prior to the 2021 Investor Day, so that the market could absorb that negative news rather than the 2021 Investor Day being overshadowed by a negative well result.
I believe that the Bulletwood-1 well result will feature at some point tomorrow.
thanks,
Celtics.
Drilling is complete at Bulletwood-1.
Koebi is being spud on 3rd March 2021 using Stena Carron (Notice to Mariners 30)
https://marad.gov.gy/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/No.-30_2021_EEPGL_Operation.pdf
Positive or negative news to be disclosed any time now.
thanks,
Celtics.
Do not be surprised if news is released prior to 15th March. Tanager-1 was extended to 30th November 2020 (per notice to mariners 68), while the result was officially released to the market on 17th November 2020.
I feel confident in the Canje block acreage. Tanager confirms extension of the play outwards, while prospects on Canje are even closer to the source rock per JHI technical information and 3rd party research notes.
Thanks,
Celtics.
Would recommend the group to look at this video released by the JHI technical team some time in the past, if you have not done so already - https://oilnow.gy/videos/ace-2020-jhi-guyana-suriname-deep-water-hydrocarbon-system/
At 7.18 minutes, look at how widespread the maturity of the Canje source rock is.
Tanager-1 has demonstrated that oil has migrated far outwards.
There is oil in the Canje block if we find the right reservoirs that have been able to successfully trap the oil inside.
Extension of Bulletwood-1 to 15th March 2021 is encouraging, if the well was dry I would think Exxon would have quickly moved on by now to the next prospect Koebi-1. Rig rates are not cheap, there is a reason why Exxon are still continuing at Bulletwood. Recall JHI have disclosed that Bulletwood-1 has a DHI (direct hydrocarbon indicator).
For your information, Liza was announced as a discovery 76 days from spud date
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/Locations/Guyana/News-releases/ExxonMobil-announces-significant-oil-discovery-offshore-Guyana.
thanks,
Celtics.
Fingers crossed that this well discovers oil in a commercial volume.
Exxon /Hess have in the past disclosed dry holes or non-commercial discoveries within the Stabroek block very quickly to the market, for that reason I am confident that oil at Bulletwood-1 has been be found.
Hassa-1:
a) Spud on 9th December 2020 - Notice to Mariners No. 82
b) Result disclosed on the 15th January 2021 - https://www.reuters.com/article/exxon-mobil-guyana-idUSL1N2JQ2G4
c) 15m net pay at Santonian interval, a deeper target - Hess 4Q20 Earnings call
Sorubim-1:
a) Spud during April 2018. "In April, drilling commenced at the Sorubim-1 well with the Noble Bob Douglas drillship" - https://investors.hess.com/node/22221/html
b) Result disclosed on the 25th April 2018 - Guyana news outlets
Nevertheless, if the Bulletwood-1 well fails then we look forward to Jabillo and Sapote in this campaign. On the other hand, if oil in a significant volume is found then I suspect JHI will immediately attract offers from the existing block participants or 3rd parties to purchase their interest in the Canje block. I would however expect JHI to see at least 2 wells being drilled and adding volumes before agreeing to an asset sale.
News must be close now. Good luck everyone.
thanks,
Celtics.
hi Harel,
May I ask where you oberved 20 api gravity disclosure for Tanager discovery? I could not find anything on the Ratio Petroleum website. I do recall that an updated CPR was due to be released this month. Nevertheless, 20 api is very much commercial. I would expect lighter oil at Bulletwood and Canje more broadly over the Kaieteur block with it’s closer promity to the Turonian Canje source rock.
Thanks,
Celtics.
There has been quite a bit of movement in vessels at the Bulletwood location over the last few days.
There are 2 vessels currently on location (including the Stena Carron), and 1 High speed craft.
The point I would like to make is that it is an encouraging sign that there has been no news reported to the market so far with respect to the Bulletwood drill. Monday 15th January (next week) will be Day 49 of drilling. In exploration, Dry holes are often reported fairly quickly to the market and discoveries take longer due to logging and testing.
For your information, Hassa-1 was spud on 9th December 2020. The outcome was announced to the market on Day 38 - 15th January 2021. "The Hassa-1 exploration well in the Stabroek block did not encounter hydrocarbons in the primary target reservoirs,” Janelle Persaud, ExxonMobil Guyana Public and Government Affairs Advisor said. “However, the well did encounter hydrocarbons in other intervals."
During the 4Q20 Hess earnings call towards the end of January 2021, it was disclosed that 50 net ft. of oil was found at the Santonian level in response to an analyst question. This interval is about 3000 ft. deeper than the Campanian.
I am positive that something of interest has been found at Bulletwood, whether that is Commercial or not is another matter. Time will tell. I am pleased that no news has so far been reported.
Thanks,
Celtics.
Hi Tomy - I am not surprised that there was no comment on the Bulletwood-1 drill on the earnings calls of Exxon and Total. If there was a question from one of the analysts during the Q&A session then I would expect the companies to provide an update on extending operations to the Canje block and not disclose any price sensitive info. Take as an example, the answer that Greg Hill (Hess COO) provided during a November 2020 investor conference with respect to the drilling operation at Tanager.
With respect to the average drilling times. The average Stabroek drilling time (to the Campanian interval) from Well spud to Oil discovery announcement takes between 35 to 60 days. There is also a period of time within those timeframes for laboratory testing of fluid samples.
Payara-1 spud to discovery announcement - 61 days.
Uaru-1 spud to discovery announcement - 50 days.
Mako-1 spud to discovery announcement - 35 days. (notice to mariners no's 93 & 94)
Bulletwood-1 was spud on 29th December 2020, and is now at 43 days. We will have to wait and see.
thanks,
Celtics.