The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Notice the Hannam stamp on the slide.. this whole sale is being substantiated, and backed, by the proclaimed King of Mining himself. I literally can't think of a reason to be unsettled at this point, and this is coming from someone that's sat on a significant five figure loss, and a 46p average.
Old Ian's been out in the Alpes this week on holibobs making use of the fresh snow, I haven't gotten out there since before covid regrettably, but between he, MC and Mellon - they're all calm and going through the motions as is typical of a sale where, there's NOT MUCH TO DO but get your contractuals in order, and show prospective buyers around
The purchaser is looking at *PROFIT* of, well, billions.
To be clear, this isn't a "hundreds-of-millions-profit" opportunity, this is a Billions-making opportunity.
It's actually insanity, when you do the maths.
1. This rise is a normalisation I feel - hovering 35-50p is where this should have stayed without US intervention, most recent news should have pushed us to 50-70p.
2. With 9 prospective buyers in the data room, there's simply no world in which this won't go to multiple bids. The upside is absolutely monumental for a buyer
3. Mark's words and demeanor in the latest interview is an excellent indicator of progress. They have a target offer in hand (a low ball would have shifted the intonation around the offer itself) which means anyone else that wants a look in must exceed that offer. The audited revenue forecasts as part of FS make this a multi BILLION dollar venture. 50m here or there for a prospective buyer is inconsequential. Simply put, the sale will exceed the 225m. Hannam knows this, Jim knows, Mark knows
4. Above is most likely the reason for Mark's bonus - which I'm absolutely fine with
5. The BOD are effectively grabbing prospective buyers by the shoulders, trying to shake sense into them - if I had the available cash right now I wouldn't hesitate to throw down six figures on this with the very real prospect of doubling in very VERY short term.
6. My avg continues to be 46p. My portfolio is currently fully allocated.
GLA. Said without hyperbole or for the benefit of newbies (I don't care who's in or out at this point, most positions of significance have been taken), we're nearing an end game, and a prosperous one it's about to be - even for me, at my average. It's been a wild ride - I think I'll actually miss this BB!
We're effectively only normalising here back to pre sanction levels, which is brilliant if you got in at the Open Offer price, but we should all just consider this as a normalisation. It's a move in the right direction sure, but you ain't seen nothin' yet.
Certain comms are doing the rounds in certain circles; we're beyond "Phase 1".
Condor's day is soon - this is going to pop massively from base. As a point of ref I consider base to be roughly 35p. My average is 46p. Sale price, depending on bidding war, anything between 65 absolute minimum, and £1.10.
Whoever picks this up is sat on a bn dollar company.
Yes I saw one poster mention comfort around the fact that their avg was 17p, and it was a measured level of exposure.
My man best move over for the mid 40s club...!
I think I read Mellon's avg was now low 30s, or even as low as late 20s by this point. If there was any way we could manage a sale price that would help us recoup at least some of our losses, at this point I'd be happy to take what would be a 10k haircut for mid 30s.
A massive shame, I had a realistic target price in my portfolio of just over a quid when I bought in years ago. What a time that was...
Closing point's a good one there.
This really has been dragged out more than was ever necessary - Mark and Jim seem to be having a "well, if it isn't the consequences of our actions!" moment. I've said before, they thought they'd be able to brute force their way to a higher share price though high levels of productionisation - and not only has that gamble NOT paid off, but they've pivoted the whole strategy, more or less, making LTHs look foolish. I'm sure that'll have something to do with the depressed MCAP.
If I wasn't invested, and looked at this roadmap of events, I wouldn't do so now despite the obscene entry price compared to my average. I just don't trust them to deliver at all.
sla - check this in the scale.
who's owning the alcumus
QQI review.
Can we atleast entertain for the moment that Jim and Mark are doing the right thing and inject a bit of positivity into this chat-circus.
It's now all or nothing - if you're continuing to bag hold you'd do well to let that percolate, and decide on whether the risk factor's for you or not.
This is no longer a strategic long-term jhold in your portfolio. It's a gamble. Question is,
1. are you prepared to gamble on Jim's wits, that he;s even able to achieve a pallitable sale price?
2. even if he does, what do you think his mechanism for filtering that value back to the shareholders is?
If you can't bet on either of the above, SELL. It's no longer the investment for you. Frankly speaking, it's no longer the investment we all thought we were making - which was road to production!
Productionised, this is a gold mine (pun intended). THAT'S the USP, and that's what Jim's going to leverage.
Mark's nothing but a talking head at this point. The conversations that are actually happening will be happening above his pay grade - and believe you me, you'll be the last to know about it.
what are you talking about? There was no "official sale date".
Do you mean, RNS re notification TO sell?
Which - doesn't mean anything... If Mark's response yesterday is anything to go by, there's literally nothing yet on the table. I sincerely hope I'm wrong!
also - how do we close at a8, open at 17.38 and Google assumes a drop of 0.12, or .7%? This never made sense to me.
I think the problem is that there has been a stack of misinformation elading us up to this point.
Last year we - quote - had people on site running final due dilligence. This has amounted to nothing (possible scuppered by sanctions).
We spend several million on a mill that's gathering dust
The land ownership "issue"
Artisinal miners on "our land" continuing to extract whilst we can't get our house in order
The board valuations
The open offer price (WHAT!?)
Jim and Mark made the fatal mistake of assuming confidence would prevail and we'd just brute-force our way to a higher share price based on nearing the gateway to production.
They've neglected, massively and STUPIDLY, IMO, to sate the realistic appretite of potential whale investors - and that ignorance is now rearing it's head.
There's no doubt that JM booted Mark through frustration, but he's also got to lok a bit closer to home to find the reasoning behind our position...this should have been a wrap 6 years ago, boyos!
Anyway. I'm bagholding at over 45p and frankly would be overjoyed if I could just get my cash out - have been locked in here for years and have seen my watchlist way out perform even my wilder expectations, which is just the worst.
At least we know it's now or never. I'm just hoping Jimbo pulls a big fat rabbit out of his hat and we can all walk away with a lesson rather than a loss.
Very frustrating indeed - and probably the reason for the snipes. At this point, as far as I'm concerned, it's warranted. This is our money these guys are failing with.
I kind of don't follow the points being made.
Of course if we sold it for 200m it'd make a difference.
Of course it'd make sense to sell in advance of a placing then buy back cheaper - hindsight is 20:20.
Just filing an observation. CNR is hopeless. JM's disinterested. Sanctions have struck. Mark 's over it. And so am I.
They have NOT performed for years, why would the sale be any different.
the market won't care about that in the slightest. Our sentiment is fumes at this point, and it seems there's not a decision that BOD can make that'll alleviate that.
I think we all just need to admit to ourselves - we're nothing but a bunch of hopeful bag holders. The second people find their exits - which as time goes on we're realising that those exits are MUCH lower than we ever anticipated - BB will get mighty quiet, and CNR will continue to be traded as some left field exploratory penny stock / loose change drawer for JM.
We were talking multiple £'s for SP 2 years ago, now we've got 25p for some people looking like a solid return. How incredibly painful that notion is...
Noel have a day off and disappear back down your hole you boring, boring troglodyte. You contribute NOTHING to this community, your inputs are wholly redundant, don't impress, and frankly make me embarassed for you.
Merry Christmas, now puck off.
We thought 30p was the floor several months ago.
I will say, my reasons for getting in on the open offer is solely to bring my average down. I'm down tens of thousands on Condor sadly, and it's majority of my portfolio.
Full disclosure - I'm sure it'll make some of you feel better - the additional shares will put my average to 39p.
I'm very bitter about my entry price - I bought at high 40s when we really started to see some momentum. The fundamentals, which I still believe, indicate(d) that we were sat on a company, that if taken to production would be worth hundreds of millions - a ten bagger for us LTHs.
I'm very bitter about the lack of transparency that MC and JM have presented to holders. WHY oh why we bought the mill continues to be a mystery to me. I can only assume the depleted coffers, and prolonged headache for Jim, has forced this decision. Probably a wise decision given our current sitrep.
I'm sweet on the fact there have been geologists on the ground very recently kicking tyres.
I'm sweet on Hannam - his reputation precedes him (I suggest you google him - the proclaimed King of Mining in the City), and the most recent deleted interview by MC indicates that, above all else, he and Jimbo REALLY DO WANT TO MAKE SOME MONEY HERE - he's sharky, and likes to win.
Unfortunately, the asset's only as good as Jim and Hannam are able to present it. This is now less a holistic value proposition, but rather a gamble on Jim and what he's able to muster. If it sells for 150m, which is completely feasible, well - I'll see you at the bar.
If Jim folds, and leaves the table (this is chump change for him, don't forget), well then that bar will be more of the Weatherspoons variety.
GLA
I've picked up another 35k shares here. MC and JM have absolutely done the right thing, and JM's got the tools for the job.
When a sale's announced, you'll be piffed at yourself for not filling your boots, because this will all happen over night.
GLA
Noel do yourself a favour and take a look at yourself. You are such an an absolute bore it's borderline offensive. Condor Gold, and this BB, both live in your head rent free! You're not a fan of the share, we get it.
Do yourself a favour and move on, Go outside. Find some other excitement in your boring, minor, inconsequential life, you absolute non-entity of a human.
the endless tumble is such a disappointment. The potential here was massive - and I'm afraid I have to agree - Mark and Jim have dropped the ball. It was almost impossible to NOT generate value here, having that much gold just below the surface and not being able to bring this thing to fruition is just the biggest slap in the face.
I'm left with questions such as:
WHY did MC even buy the bloody mill?
WHY didn't Mark nip the land in the bud when he had the chance?
WHY weren't they upfront about the fact they wanted to sell this sooner, rather than letting this whole circus play out, hammering the share price in the mean time?
They've made their bed and ended up HAVING to announce the intention to strip assets in the worst conditions imaginable because the financial runway's running out.
Mark looks foolish (but isn't, he's been paid a fortune over the years) and Jim? Well, he's either smarter than all of us combined (which I hope) or has written this off, and will take what he can get at this point.
My average here is 46p. I was certain of a pound due to fundamentals; at this point I'd be overjoyed with getting out at 40p but have largely written this off. The fact that we couldn't recover and maintain some buoyancy above 30p was the writing on the wall.
is over 40p. And JM doesn't lose money.
The sanction news is frustrating, we all agree., but JM's not bothered, you shouldn't be either. The rather obnoxious Twitter post was practically laughing in the face of the notion, I like to think it was an outward EYE-ROLL without thumbing noses at US govt. directly.
Condor will rocket shortly and rerate based on what's in the ground. This isn't a tech startup with an uncertain roadmap to sustainable profitability - this is actual, cold hard "cash" in the ground that's getting more valuable by the day.
The path has been long - but keep your eyes peeled.
News is coming. I repeat, it *IS* coming.