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Apologies to you, RockyRide: I wrote RockyRoad in my note below.
I also left out the need for a detailed update on the entire liability side of the balance sheet. Step up, Nick, please.
I fully concur on IR: I feel more knowledgeable than they are, tbh.
AGM might end up like the Smithfield Market scene out of The Long Good Friday; or an old Eurotunnel AGM. Sadly, I won't be there in person.
2/2
The current level of engagement is woeful. Management need to respect shareholders if they want their support.
Ends.
1. You have a large number of long-term shareholders who are deeply dissatisfied with business progress and level of engagement on a number of fronts. Read recent comments on this bulletin board from me, TrustILie, RockyRoad, Zengas and StreetsOfGold, amongst others.
2. Suspension from trading is not an excuse for lack of communication on operating businesses and financial updates.
3. In AK's 31 Dec 2021 presentation to shareholders, quarterly operational updates were proposed. There have been none. Who has advised you to stop communication with investors? Why?
4. It is understood that South Sudan and Chad-Cameroon updates are not possible. This does not give you an excuse not to update on Nigeria and Niger. It does not give you an excuse not to provide operational and financial updates.
5. I (together with another shareholder) wrote to you at length in April with a list of questions and requested an operational update in May. The very short response from IR, flagging the publication of the 2023 financials and little more was wholly inadequate. I do not even know if either Andrew or Nick has read my letter.
6. If all we can expect is more of the same in terms of communication, I propose saving the overhead of an IR team and putting the money to work elsewhere.
7. I'll be voting against the reappointment of the NEDs in the AGM (except the incoming chairman) for failing to hold management to account on investor communication.
8. As Zengas pointed out on this BB, the Niger assets have been there for years and we still have close to zero visibility to first oil.
9. What, if anything, is going on with the renewables projects?
10. Where is the detailed explanation of the highly material impact of Naira volatility on cash held and on future receivables? Where on Earth are we on the debt restructuring? A single sentence that it remains wip is unacceptable.
11. The AGM will rightly be deeply dysfunctional if these issues aren't addressed in advance. Filibustering will not do. Andrew and Nick should both be there in person and both should make presentations.
12. Finally, I'm reposting an excerpt from Zengas' recent post. Please take note.
"Seriously, come results/agm there needs to be a credible plan of action. Six months of this year will be gone. We are not a charity no matter how much the company claims societal good. It's just no longer credible or acceptable to be doing nothing of meaningful size. To go back to my opening lines, 10 years is shameful and any further waffling about future intended plans will no longer wash. Management need a collective boot in the hole re this fiasco of a situation not to mention their divergence to wind and solar while the oil assets there go nowhere fast. I intend to voice this directly to them and i urge other shareholders to do the same that this situation in my view is no longer acceptable and can't be dodged come results/agm."
The current level of
Agreed, bangrak. I'm an investor in both BHP and AAL.
I like metals and oil & gas. London listing in that space finally getting a little bit of love.
I'll certainly reconsider buying here too, maybe you might too. Just with ex-cash PE at about 15 and the strong possibility of a dividend cut to zero, this is far too richly valued right now. It's a single-strategy commodity processor in SA, after all. Great exit price here before the Q3s drop.
Morning all.
I'm reposting the presentation which Andrew Knott made on new year's eve 2021 at the time of the CC announcement. I don't believe that it's on the website anymore.
I posted this a few weeks back but it got a bit lost in an RNS which fell immediately afterwards. Obviously it's a very long time ago but I thought some of you might want to revisit it.
Many of the Nigerian, Nigerien and Cameroonian elements are still relevant, I assume.
The Gantt chart at slide 23 is particularly interesting. It proposes quarterly operational updates. The Niger slides also set out progress to oil. Debt profiles also give an idea of ambition.
Clearly after this was published, the company’s attitude to investor engagement changed significantly. On who's advice, I wonder...
This is worth reading in conjunction with the upcoming 2023 financials in advance of the AGM. That meeting needs to significantly outperform last year's effort.
Best wishes,
https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/Restoration-to-AIM-and-major-acquisition-presentation-December-2021.pdf
I agree, bangrak.
It may be a while away, but when Ivanhoe brings phase 2 of this project on line, that could be a significant driver of global PGM supply.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jbb-O6KOFbQ&feature=youtu.be
I expect a profit marginally higher than Q1 or Q2, but only marginally (on account of Rh having nudged up a little).
Profit for the year is heading for around USD8m, bar any exceptionals.
This is a pretty easy share for which to estimate value.
Https://twitter.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1782311038769156384
Quite the response (albeit somewhat garbled).
This is what happens when Investor Relations stop doing investor relations...
I'm out of patience on the lack of info on Nigeria and Niger as well as lack of meaningful financial updates (but not on SS or CC). Inadequate.
You understood perfectly, SoG. Was similar to Rocky's point on stranded gas. I probably wasn't v clear.
The reason I don't favour dividends, is that we must be paying about 15% interest right now: a distribution is unjustifiable in such circumstances.
Given the significant burden of servicing of debt finance, I'd sooner see debt paid down or money put to work in high-IRR, low-payback-period projects and capex than any distribution.
On the Chad stuff, it can't be appealed forever. Others understand arbitral timelines far better than me. Injunctive seizure of cargo, either at Kribi or at destination port is how we get paid (should the arbitration be successful), I believe.
It'll be interesting to see if the growth in deferred revenue leads to customers seeking relief.
Thanks Trust.
Whilst I'm here, thanks also for all your thoughtful posts here over many months. You're a big part of keeping this board alive and keeping us all thinking: it's appreciated.
Cash plus 4-5 times projected FY24 net profit gives a share price in the low-to-mid 40s. Add 5 pence for sound management and potential growth in ounces produced. Deduct 5 pence for country in a big political and financial mess. I still end up with FV around 43-45 pence.
...have rather a long way to catch up with the share price.
Ok, this is what I imply:
One imagines Russia does not follow similar codes of conduct to Savannah when undertaking its international transactions.
And with that, I'm going to bed.
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1776239858173763666
They'll have to put something out today as they flagged it last week.
It's becoming increasingly clear that the Mexican stand-off between management and the South Sudanese decision-makers continues.
One more:
https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1774026440956072009?s=20
Https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1773794529268695184
Whilst I'm posting, I'll comment that I do not believe that shareholders will be the intended audience for next week's RNS. But we are probably close to the edge of some sort of denouement.
Happy Easter, everyone.