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I don't expect anything until some days after (at the earliest) the Chadian political summit in the capital which is currently two weeks in to a scheduled three week conference. It may well drag on longer, we shall see. I think there's more to this than a divorce payment from Exxon.

I still don't know how things are going on the ground; I assume Exxon is there doing what it contractually has to...and that's about it.

Nice, modest, Accugas addition this morning on zero capex. Well done SAVE Nigeria.

Now, about that Chad thing...

...plus c'est le même blimmin' chose.

You can't blame them, to be fair.

https://tchadinfos.com/tchad/tchad-lust-annonce-une-greve-de-trois-jours-a-partir-du-17-aout/

The Union of Trade Unions of Chad (UST) calls on all workers in the public and private sector to observe a three-day strike from August 17, 2022 throughout the national territory. This is following a general meeting held last Saturday.

Contacted, the president of the UST, Barka Michel confirms the information and indicates that a minimum service will be provided in hospitals and emergency services.

Following the case of embezzlement at the Société des hidrocarbures du Tchad (SHT), the Union of Trade Unions of Chad, furious, had demanded, among other things, the resignation of the Prime Minister, the increase of wages by 50%

Thanks, Mr Streets; exactly so! There's just over seven and a half months between those two releases on the Perenco deal, which is what I was trying to show.

It'll also be interesting to see if we do get the Doba premium over Brent which you've flagged, sog.

I think Knotty has been advised not to release any further RNSs which might be in any way related to Chad. Quite why this means we've heard nothing on the Niger plans, I don't know. I suspect it will become clear in the autumn. Releasing the interims can't be avoided of course. I wouldn't expect them too early.

...some dates for context
https://www.reuters.com/article/glencore-chad-perenco-idUSL1N2RV1XD

https://energycapitalpower.com/report-perenco-glencore-chad-upstream-oil/

May be of interest.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/8/chad-military-govt-opposition-groups-sign-peace-deal-in-qatar

Thanks, Velo

Try this link with wwwdotedisongroupdotcom.

https://*********/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Sylvania-Platinum-Excellent-Q4-production-but-lower-PGM-basket-1.pdf

It's all rather quiet here. The year-end financials and Andrew Knott's very upbeat interview with Malcolm Graham-Wood were eight weeks ago. Given the significant changes in debt capital markets, I imagine the Accugas debt restructuring is once again delayed (Nick Beattie's main task currently?)

Still hoping for the publication of the Nigerien plan that was flagged back then (AK mentioned negotiations being undertaken about how the crude will be sold).

Can an update be provided on these, absent the closing of the Chad-Cameroon deal?

So many questions. Perhaps I am too impatient as West African business moves at its own pace.

Best wishes, all

https://ecomatin.net/tchad-la-sht-prevoit-un-renforcement-de-ses-activites-au-3e-trimestre/

Chad: SHT plans to strengthen its activities in the 3rd quarter

According to CEMAC's Economic Outlook Test (Tpc) for the 3rd quarter of 2022 published on July 27, this trend could be explained by the probable increase in production by the Esso consortium, due to the start-up of the Miandoum fields.

Photo by marius zogo marius zogo Email 8 hours agoLast Updated: July 28, 2022 78 2 min read
Chad Hydrocarbons Company (SHT)
After the strike by Esso consortium employees, the fire in one of the Miandoum oil fields at the end of 2021 and very recently the "SHT gate", the Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad (SHT) intends to strengthen its activities. This is revealed by the General Directorate of Studies, Finance and International Relations of the BEAC, which has just made public the Forecast Forecast Test (Tpc) of the CEMAC for the 3rd quarter of 2022 (June-September). This outlook is based on two factors.

Read also: Misappropriation at SHT: Orabank will draw the consequences, CBT washes its hands of it

Esso and Miandoum as reinforcements

First, "the probable increase in production" of Esso Exploration, a subsidiary of the American oil company Exxon Mobil. The latter, which had an average production of around 33,700 barrels of oil per day in 2020, was affected by the staff strike which led to the suspension of production at the Doba field. In essence, the workers demanded the termination of negotiations with the British company Savannah Energy for the acquisition by the latter of Exxon Mobil's 40% stake in the Doba project as well as its 40% stake in the Chad-Cameroon pipeline.

Read also: Chad: Abdelkerim Idriss Deby appointed PCA of the National Agency for Investments and Exports

In the CEMAC Tpc for the first quarter of 2022, the SHT already forecast a drop in production given that the incident caused a drop of around 10,000 barrels/day. During the 2nd quarter, it envisaged a gradual resumption of production. This optimism was then reinforced by the rise in world oil prices during the same period following Western sanctions on Russia as a consequence of its invasion of Ukraine.

Read also: Embezzlement: Commercial bank Chad declines all responsibility in a scandal of 120 billion FCFA

The first factor is dependent on "the commissioning of the Miandoum oil fields", one of the major fields intended for export to Chad alongside Komé, Bolobo, Moundouli, Maikeri, Nya and Timbré, while those of Rônier and Mimosa in the Bongor basin supply national consumption. This field is gradually recovering after the fire which ravaged 4 of its cubes in early November 2021. A source from the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum entrusted to Tchad Infos in mid-June 2021 estimated oil production between 100,000 and 105,000 barrels/day

Nearly 50m£ profit.
£100m cash
£230m mkt cap

It all looks rather undemanding. But, as ever, it's all about the forward basket price. And now about forward cost management too. Jaco and team are right to flag this.

Chip shortage bottleneck done? Maybe. See the article I posted under the title "Gentlemen, start your engines"

Thanks so much, komakino; much appreciated.

This tells me less than I thought it might. That said, if he's confident enough to do these overseas visits, perhaps there's not as much immediate concern about power struggles domestically as I had assumed. One wonders if the SAVE deal is involved in his discussions with the Saudis, Qataris or Emiratis.

I guess I just need to wait.

I do think it's telling that nothing has been forthcoming in terms of an RNS on the Niger recommencement of works, despite a 3-4 week timeline being suggested by AK when the 2021 glossy was published. I think a blanket blackout is in place. (Much like the UK this winter.)

I've a degree in part in chemistry and I've never seen phosphorus used like that before! Makes me think of Walter White in his RV with Crazy8.

You are most kind and informative, komakino. Thank you!

Two questions come to mind for me:
1. Was the sale from Glencore to Perenco executed in advance of the Exxon-Petronas-SAVE putative deal and how come it has happened but SAVE's hasn't (yet)? I bet a number of you know the details. To me, it seems that a battle for who controls Chad is the stumbling block rather than some nuanced debate about Exxon's "withdrawal" payment. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm really not sure what's afoot now.

2. Who is running the show on the Exxon-Petronas assets now and managing the pipeline to the sea? Who's paying the costs? Where does the revenue go?

OK, more than two questions...

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/val%C3%A9rie-no%C3%ABl-2530228a_electricity-electricityprices-megawatt-activity-6958003779585638400-uJ16?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=ios_app

Would someone with a subscription be kind enough to share the article here, please?

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2022/07/26/mahamat-idriss-deby-expected-to-make-official-visit-to-riyadh,109802120-art

May be of interest. Gives some context to the delay in the CC deal being finalised, albeit that the allafrica pieces are partly opinion pieces.

Best wishes

https://allafrica.com/stories/202207210009.html

https://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00082838.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/15/chads-national-dialogue-to-start-in-august

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/volvo-cars-ceo-suggests-the-global-chip-shortage-is-easing.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

I’m slightly concerned by the Chadian acronyms. They all seem expletive.

Thanks so much for posting this, ZENGAS. We’d be in the dark on much of this without you.

I agree with Mount Teide and others; this action by the Chadian government should put us nearer the conclusion (completion?) of this deal. I actually think it is good news having read it a couple of times. If we’re to believe it, the key blockers have been removed. The fate of the finance minister still seems unclear and, of course, we don’t know what Mr Deby thinks (except, one assumes, he’d quite like some cash and apparently he’s just had his childhood pal arrested). But the oil minister, who is onside for the deal, appears to have won the day, if not the war. There’s clearly a political battle going on to decide who runs the country.

I do wonder what the situation is at the fields. Exxon people are all back in the lone star state. Are the nodding donkeys lying idle? Who is protecting the site and performing maintenance? Savannah? I’ve no idea. May be one of you does.

I’m still trying to envisage a scenario in which the deal doesn’t happen, but having difficulty with that. If Savannah isn’t going to operate it, who is? Certainly not Exxon. The Chad government, one imagines have neither the resources nor the skills, nor the funds to pay out Exxon and Petronas (who wouldn’t accept such a move anyway, unless they had absolutely no choice (assets sequestered)).

Anyway: this deal has taken at least 18 elapsed months of precious management time. Perhaps it’s wishful thinking, but I think this is going to be concluded in the next few weeks. Of course, if it were to fail, then the Chad renewables deals fall away too. And we could focus so much more on Niger, etc.

An update on the Niger plan of action was mooted by AK about a month ago and I also wonder if this has been delayed by a regulatory blackout. I think SAVE are very wise to stay silent on all fronts until the CC path ahead is clear, although it’s frustrating as a shareholder.

I still think the deal gets done and Agadem can come out of his 47 pence purdah (come on, Aggers!)

Best wishes, everyone, and thanks for your top-notch posts.

These financials should mark a turning point for the SP. The groundwork is done and management has now learned not to over-promise, apparently.

Spin-off of BE far preferable to fund-raise in current structure.

Tend not to post much here due to sea of green filtered people to which I regularly add.

Be well, pdub.