Morgan Stanley on Copper27 Mar 2024 21:55
Robert Friedland
28m
@robert_ivanhoe
Morgan Stanley on #copper: Perennial #copper supply deficit materializing. As of mid-2023, our house view was that the #copper market would be in a slight surplus in 2024 and 2025. On the back of widespread #copper concentrate supply disruptions and delays in the ramp of new mine projects, the #copper supply balance has changed quickly and our commodity team is now forecasting a shortfall in 2024 and significantly higher deficit conditions throughout the rest of the decade.
.............
#Copper TCs were fairly stable last year, averaging ~$84/t, but they declined rapidly over 4Q23 to a current spot of ~$9/t. This highlights that the concentrate supply stress that has been building in the past few months will finally start to tighten the refined #copper market. Against this backdrop, our commodity team is increasing its price forecasts to $4.38/lb in 2024 and $4.41/lb in 2025.