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Keep in mind West Canadian oil blends are trading around $68 bbl.
tk,
Because it makes more sense to bring in a major who can turbocharge exploration. If it's a well crafted earn-in arrangement, all that heavy lifting can do wonders. Perhaps the best example of this in recent years is GGP. Every earn-in milestone should out greater value.
Keep in mind, any deal will ONLY be within the Hu****si area limits. Which means KAV can continue to pursue exploration over the remaining Central and Southern KSZ licences it controls. In addition to its other interests.
Cash
Hi MT,
I was concerned as you were when the RNS came out on hole A2.1 being complete. Maintained my position as they announced 6 holes and there were positive indications at the least. It's virgin territory with lots of drilling that needs to be done before they can truly understand the geology. Regardless of a discovery they have loads of knowledge gaps that will get filled in with the current drill programme. I think lots of drilling is still required before anything meaningful will get announced.
Which takes me to my next point, we need them to really push hard for that EMP at KCB and/or hire another rig to get going on KCB area. I am particularly interested in the non-JV LVR licences (PL82/83) as KAV can earn upto 90% per the agreement. But it'd probably better they let POW take the lead and learn from Kanye license drills. But I think it's crucial they go ahead and move on this if KSZ
ops and subsequent analysis start to drag out.
Ella,
Ben said in the stockbox interview post RNS (near the end) that based on what we see from A2 area it makes sense to go for our biggest target (B) and not C1. I read that to mean, if A2.1 and A2.2 confirm AC corridor does not work, then no point drilling C1, move straight onto B1. Some could also take it as, if the methods being used confirm AC, then the cortidor is in the bag and money is better spent at that point going after B using same methods, and they can come back to AC later.
Until those assays are out, could go either way.
Notably he said, with the downhole EM, they really want to understand what 300-400m below bottom of hole and particularly to the west (gap between 2 holes) looks like.
Cash
Hi Keith,
There are 2 key possibilities here for me;
1) They have seen (initial inspection only) enough to warrant the second A2 hole to establish a possible source or conduit that would help demystify the geology further.
2) They have not seen what they want yet, thus have moved towards the feeder zone area to see if there maybe something of interest, a little deeper.
Clearly, whatever they find at A2 will have an overall impact on the 'feeder zone' hypothesis for their model. It could literally make or break them (in this area atleast).
Cash
Why change plan and drill a hole to test the feeder zone hypothesis, especially if there was little to nothing of any significant interest they could glean from initial inspection of the core? Surely a poor outcome would bring C as a target into question aswell?
It does sound cautiously optimistic but could yet throw up some surprises. We'll have to wait and see.
Cash
Tony,
Thanks for that. I also see Divi growing over the medium to longterm if the oil and gas price improves, or even hold and they drive synergies across the board yo lower unit costs.
Here's the thing, I am not so concerned about serenity. It's still in the higher risk bracket, let's leave aside for s moment. Without this deal, they can only really grow organically, through development and reactivations. That's capital intensive, laced with operational risks and also time consuming. If it's backed by substantial debt or some revolving facility, even that is full of risks - for anyone who has been in a geared producer you will know loan covenants and triggers can wipeout the equity. This has happened in all price collapses - which happen every few years ; look at the circumstances we acquired the current Canadian assets.
So on both counts, I am happy with outright acquisition of assets and financed in house without major debt obligations.
The key metric I look at is FCF and sustainability of Divi. And that's looking better going forwards.
Cash
GGG,
What are your thoughts on FCF after this deal given Divi is based on it and how that may impact shareprice.
Cash
They are becoming a dividend payer now, so a different league of investors (HNW and institutional/Fund) will be onboard here. The retail will cause the occasional spike, but that volume is being driven by income/yield chasers who have deep deep pockets.
Easy decision. Kav over POW. The number of projects means POW are spread thin - plus they continually issue RNS like confetti.
Also, there is nothing in POW's portfolio that comes close to the potential scale of KSZ, an emerging play which Kav all but control. The management and team at KAV have done huge amounts of work to get this to stage it's currently at.
The KCB is a nice lower risk element that helps.
But make no mistake - it's all about the KSZ here.
Cash
A rare opportunity for a UK minnow in a superhot space to be listing in the US.
You can still buy, just put a fill or kill or limit order in a penny or two above current price - that should secure your stock.
Expecting this to be much higher once the US investors get on board.
With the US listing coming up shortly, the excitement will only continue to grow. £1 coming folks - this is ARB all over again but faster!
Bought via limit on EQI a few days ago. Stick a limit order on above the price and go for it.
Online brokers like EQI, Barclays, ii, Saxo and any others who you pay a quarterly fee and trading free for the privilege every time you trade, really take the ****. Any trader or investor needs to shut those accounts down quickly and move funds over to the likes of HL, AJBell or Jarvis/XO who actually had the IPO shares in accounts before trading was done on Friday. The delay for many has cost them money and the only way around this poor/slow performance on the brokerage side is to take your custom and money away from them. They must learn that in the era of Robinhood and Trading212, to pay fees and get such a poor level of service reflects terrible value. Unfortunately, the only way they learn is the hard way - being nice to these folk doesn't work.
Hearing some brokers like EQI and Barclays may not allocate shares to nominee accounts until end of the week.
Traderdan,
EQI are a low performance and efficiency broker. You need to take your money away from them and open an account with a more reputable outfit like HL or IG.
Zak Mir has spoken - 36p short term if chart stays above 20p by close of play.
Cash
Depending on risk appetite;
If BTC gets to $100k from here ($57k) - that's a 75% return.
Same scenario ($100k btc) ARB shareprice I think will be between £8-10 once PE multipliers kick in. A 180-255% return.
Cash
Zak Mir has just put a 6-8week target of 65p on this. No doubt it may playout as it coincides with newsflow window.
MassiveRay,
Clear as daylight. I think there is considerable upside at GGP across its various assets plus cashflow on the distant horizon. However, in terms of the value creation for shareholders in both, OMI offers far more 'bang for buck' than GGP does at this stage. GGP has had its low hanging fruit. As mentioned below - OMI is yet to really have its major discovery value creation uplift based on drilling and scaling resource. Given the grades and thickness of intervals at Anza thus far, there is greater potential for more of a rerate here in the short term than at GGP. I hold both and intend to keep them both longterm.
Cash