Member Info for CarsCoffee

Yes 3M, but I am done. Just a spectator now.

Will if you are thinking about getting back in under 60p you better make it Monday or Tuesday. Time is running out on that one.

https://youtu.be/_vdB7gphtyo

Interesting analysis for traders

They can’t be that smart as a majority of index funds outperform the traders. Basically a monkey would do better than a trader.

When we are talking about ultimate value and where the price might go we can only look at one comparison.
Ferrari, I don’t have illusions that we will reach the Ferrari market cap however you do have to compare. They produced around 10,000 cars and have a market cap of €29 bil. For arguments sake £26 bil.
Let’s assume that in the next 2 years Aston produce the same number of cars as current Ferrari production. They also work on a 30% margin by the way.
Let’s also assume we have good F1 success and great global exposure as well as the board executing the manufacture on demand model to keep margins high.
I accept that Ferrari have a huge lead in the super car world however seeing the sales McLaren have achieved (disregarding the financial troubles) means that the market will still accept new comers. Enter Valkyrie, Valhalla and Vanquish.
On the GT car side Ferrari are actually trying to get in on Aston’s turf with the Roma as well as the current Portofino.
With the fastest growing SUV market Aston have the jump on Ferrari who are probably 2-3 years away.
I see no reason with the moves Aston are making and with the team onboard along with the incredible brand name that Aston cannot be worth 50% of Ferrari. Remember producing the same number of cars.
So at £13 bil that would put us in the £8.50 region. I am not saying this will happen this week or any time soon just giving a perspective for anyone who might think about putting this away for retirement.
Just my opinion of course and we could be bankrupt in 12 months so DYOR. Good luck everyone.

Not Poland obviously, I don’t this they have a big market. What I meant to say was plan

Ghost, decent DBX orders is not really leaps and bounds as it is expected to a certain degree. I think we will need a bit more for bigger gains.
Valkyrie or debt restructuring along with a good future Poland would do it.

Hey Symondo and welcome to the madhouse.

Nixon, the strange part that confused me was that the the price went from in the 60,s to 28p after the money had been raised.
It was a very strange situation and I think had a lot of shorts manipulation involvement. I am not mad as it gave us opportunities to buy in at a low level.
The lowest price anybody was into the shares before and after the RI was 49p and that would have been my bet for the bottom.
I was very wrong, in the short term anyway. I would agree that this is currently just a correction the real rise is yet to come based on the company stability and success and how they execute that.

Difficult to know fair price as it is quite subjective in terms of brand value. I am certainly not a proficient enough economist to try to guess that hence my vagueness of over £1

Ark, it would probably have to be north of £1. Can’t see any big holders agreeing to anything less.

Mercman, absolutely the debt is the biggest issue and could come back to bite if Covid causes more destruction of the market.
This is the main reason the share price is so low. The fund raise and RI has bought some much needed relief and the hope is the new leadership will be able to restructure the debt in a way to cut interest payments and possibly additional cash if needed.
This is one of the things that could be brought up at the AGM.
Definitely still risk here due to the debt but the upside in my opinion with all the positives discussed previously is that the upside outweighs the current debt issue.
Good luck and if the debt issue is sorted by great sales and profits or restructuring your entry price will look very cheap.

TipTree, I know that they are invested. Therefore I know the motivation and they are aware of all the things that have been discussed.
Your motivation was obviously to try to encourage a lower price so you could buy in. I called you out and now you are just trying to come up with excuses.
Just telling it how it is.

If your opinion is that it will drop for a particular reason that you have knowledge of please let us know because I for one would like to know.

Actually no I don’t think what we say makes any difference to the SP but it can effect other people on this site.
I would not say the price can’t drop to under 50p I am just questioning your motivation for saying it.

TipTree they have made a commitment to move to on demand production rather than flooding the dealers with cars so your (negative) point has been discussed by the team already.
The focus is on maintaining high margins and not pushing production for the sake of it.
I am happy for productive discussion regarding share price, positive or negative but yours was an obviously troll to try to get a lower entry so you can make money on the rise.
That I don’t agree with as sometimes people listen to these opinions and lose money. If you substantiate your claim and give reasons for the drop in price based on new information you have please share.

You could have just said yes I sold and want back in. Don’t try and hide.

Tip tree I guess you sold your stock to early last week.

I think we are likely to see over 60p before the AGM as people will want to be onboard if the message is positive and order numbers for the DBX are strong.
If any debt restructuring and good news on DBX and Valkyrie is announced then the price will fly.
The danger is lower order numbers due to cancellations or plans for additional fund raising.
I think the board will want to put a positive message out so I feel we will see a nice rise this week.
My opinion and the downside listed above is still possible. The current price is still very low representing this risk so still Risk reward proposition on this one.

Jj, Aston Works does this to a certain degree. You can get a donor chassis and they will build whatever you want but normally a rebuild of an old classic.
This service normally costs between £300-500K. In theory they could expand this to a more custom nature of modern cars but I am not sure the demand is really there.
This is also how Zagato started back in the day and they still make models for Aston look at the Shooting brake.
I think Aston have a good custom build and specials structure that actually is superior to any other brand with Ferrari on a similar level.