Member Info for CarsCoffee

I do think the General market is about to get a huge drop Starting this week. Short the FTSE and European markets. Probably back below 5,000 and more. Does that mean I am selling AML? Definitely not.
Sorrry but I feel it is coming but it is just my opinion and might be 7,000 next week. Well it makes it interesting.

Plonked shame you didn’t buy at 30p. We feel very sad for your short.

Agreed up to date accounts would be useful for decision making.

Bully it was basically pointed out by Leo. The main issue was the oil price. The ability to get funding was reliant on the oil price.
At the time this deal was set up the oil price was $20 and below and people suspected this could last for 2 years.
My view on the funding was based on that period which prompted the decision.
Although the oil price has unexpectedly recovered to a decent level the confidence in that price is currently a bit shaky.
This merger allows a better strength for additional funding to be raised.
If the oil price was at $45-50 for 3 months then I would have a different opinion and I think the CERP entity could do well on its own.
The Bahamas does give a huge upside but I do agree that it comes with a large risk which some at CERP didn’t buy in to. I do think this deal “AT THE TIME” was done out of necessity on both sides and I believe currently that is still the case.
With a prolonged recovery of oil this may change but again you are taking a large risk in that scenario also.

Bonus I think you will find that the “certain Conditions” have not been met hence this move which gives them more than the one high risk play.
This then allows them to get the funding they need and more for future projects. It may also give a better chance of getting the preferred farm in partner.

CERP currently cannot get more funding without a higher oil price. That is a gamble at the moment as it is fluctuating a lot. CERP is on the brink of failure.
BPC have some cash and huge potential but once again are not attractive to get the funding needed to drill as it is basically a single high risk proposition.
In combination they have the huge Bahamas potential along with some actual assets and some cash flow from production.
This allows the combined entity to re structure the CERP existing debt and attract more investment needed to complete the drill and ramp up the CERP assets.
It is a win win scenario with the risk of complete failure which was likely to be the outcome of both parties anyway. This gives both parties the big shot at the Bahamas and with a hit everyone wins and the CERP assets get utilized on top in short order.

Harry you didn’t give me any information regarding the funding gap and the obvious lack of any further funds without the CERP assets.
Listen to the first 15mins of your boards presentation a few times you will get the message eventually.

Bonum have you listened to your boards presentation. They are obviously stating that they did not have sufficient funding and could not get any more due to having just speculative high risk asset and investors do not want that risk.
They are obviously saying they need CERP and the assets with production to attract more money to get a drill to commit.
I can’t understand your stance either you just don’t get the the hints they are giving or you are shorting and want the stock to go to 0p. Very strange Bonum.
CERP are potentially getting 0 out of this without an oil find and BPC are getting assets and production.

It’s called track record. 10 years to get a few charts and 3d pictures. What makes you think they would from the information from the last 10 years?

I can’t believe that you guys are not seeing that BPC without the merger would not get the drill done.
They have been talking about drilling for 8 years then blamed the government for a while. From 2016 they could have drilled but nobody would offer a farm in.
Come 2020 they had a fake drill for April that wouldn’t have happened due to insufficient funding in place.
They will loose the drilling rights within the next year and your shares will be worth 0.0p
The option is merge and Leo has sorted and put in place the drill and the funding necessary using the access of CERP.
CERP would not be able to get this kind of opportunity on its own and BPC would go under without CERP.
The dilution represents less than 1p of the BPC share price And this will be completely irrelevant if Leo can drill the oil.

Tilburn, I agree this is significant if they strike oil by January. If not just back to waiting sand speculation which has no value.

Sorry should have looked over the mistakes before I posted but hey ho.

This is how it went down

SIMON: hey Leo we can’t get a farm in parent and out drilling rights run out in January. Any chance you can help?

LEO: send the details over and I will have a look.

SIMON: OK, sending over now

LEO: I got you covered, I will have a drill books by May and drilling in January. By the way you have a shed load of oil and I can get it out the ground.

SIMON: Sounds good lets get a deal done.

Maybe they could run a bronze statue on the bonnet

F1 is just a bit of advertising for Aston not that significant to the overall company. £20 million advertising budget for great exposure to a good target audience.

I posted this a while back about ultimate value. As you can see the potential in my opinion makes the £9 not so crazy. Obviously talking quite a few years down the line.

When we are talking about ultimate value and where the price might go we can only look at one comparison.
Ferrari, I don’t have illusions that we will reach the Ferrari market cap however you do have to compare. They produced around 10,000 cars and have a market cap of €29 bil. For arguments sake £26 bil.
Let’s assume that in the next 2 years Aston produce the same number of cars as current Ferrari production. They also work on a 30% margin by the way.
Let’s also assume we have good F1 success and great global exposure as well as the board executing the manufacture on demand model to keep margins high.
I accept that Ferrari have a huge lead in the super car world however seeing the sales McLaren have achieved (disregarding the financial troubles) means that the market will still accept new comers. Enter Valkyrie, Valhalla and Vanquish.
On the GT car side Ferrari are actually trying to get in on Aston’s turf with the Roma as well as the current Portofino.
With the fastest growing SUV market Aston have the jump on Ferrari who are probably 2-3 years away.
I see no reason with the moves Aston are making and with the team onboard along with the incredible brand name that Aston cannot be worth 50% of Ferrari. Remember producing the same number of cars.
So at £13 bil that would put us in the £8.50 region. I am not saying this will happen this week or any time soon just giving a perspective for anyone who might think about putting this away for retirement.
Just my opinion of course and we could be bankrupt in 12 months so DYOR. Good luck everyone.

I think the credibility to actually be able to drill oil is a bigger factor than the CERP assets but they will help with the funding requirements.

I just put some money in CERP but definitely do your own research as it is a very high risk stock with a possible merger happening.

2% shorting is not a big factor.

You have one side with a massive unproven site with what seems to be a lack of confidence from the big players probably due to the team involved.
The other side you have a proven entity in finding and drilling oil but with a smaller potential in the ground and some assets that have deals attached that struggle to bring a profit at the current prices.
Together the plan and drilling will be pushed forward with a much higher chance of success with Leo on board.
This in turn will give confidence to investors and bigger players. The drillers will also be willing to strike a deal in order to prevent further dilution to cover the cost of the drill.
The time scale cannot be ignored either as BPC run the risk of the rights being withdrawn if they miss another deadline to drill.
Seems like a beneficial partnership to me. I can’t elwork out what the No guys are not seeing?