Member Info for CarpeDiem1

An update to my previous calcs: Griffiths owned 13,792.038 shares at a cost of £2,409,000 He sells 1,792,038 at (say 14.5p?) realising £259,845 He is left with 12,000,000 shares cost approx £2,149,000 which is 18p a share. Guesses on takeover price..somewhere about 25p a share? I am happy to have bought in on that assumption.

Griffiths sold 11 million on the 4th May for 15.25p so presumably the 10 mil buy today was most of those shares. If accurate they were bought at 14.50p so somebody made a .75p loss per share on the deal... But we have yet to discover to whom Griffiths is selling.

Plenty of Sells too, apparently. Where did that 10m come from. A stock overhang from the open offer maybe. It will be interesting to see if there is any RNS tomorrow. Good to see some progress on cost savings.

As I pointed out in previous message, Hendersons only need another 20% to take control. Thats 34million shares. We can speculate they might have bought RG's 11 million already, and I think RG might sell his other 14 million for 30p. Hendersons only need to secure another 9 or 10 million at around 30p to achieve a 50% holding. I think they would succeed in buying 10 million on the open market at around that level. Thats only three million quid and probably loose change to Hendersons.

I have been thinking that although RG sold 11m shares, we have not been notified of anybody increasing their holding. 11m shares is well over the 3% disclosure level for an RNS. Are these shares simply on the market makers book, or have they been parceled up in 2.99% chunks to third parties awaiting an outright offer by Hendersons. It looks to me that there is a certain amount of positioning going on and the next few weeks will be interesting.

SGD Yes I misscalculated by £400k. Anyway, the general point still stands. Regards CD1

I have done some calculations on Richard Griffiths. All info taken from the issued RNS and the share price chart. We know that on 15th Feb Griffiths bought shares taking his holding over the 3% threshold. I have assumed he held no position prior to this and therefore bought 1,581,546 on 15th Feb at 66p. Cost £1,438,000 On 23rd Feb he bought 774,000 shares at 43p, cost £332,800 On 26th Feb he bought 1,346,500 shares at 46p, cost £619,000 On 4th April he bought 21,297,954 shares at 10p offer price cost £2,129,000. He now owns 25,000,000 shares at a total cost £4,518,000 Then 4th May he sells 11,207,962 shares at 15.25p realising £1,709,000 He is therefore left with 13,792,038 shares at a cost of £2,809,000 which is 20p per share. So far Griffiths has not made a profit so I presume he is looking somewhere north of 20p a share for his remaining holding. Now we can speculate on how much he thinks SGI is worth, but it would be my guess that he is looking for a million quid profit on his capital outlay, so I imagine he won't sell them for less than 30p a share, or roughly double today's price.

Griffiths has sold off most of the open offer shares. He went from 3.7 million share prior to 25 million post offer. Hendersons need to acquire another 36 million shares (or thereabouts) to take control of the group. With half of Griffiths 25million apparently available, Hendersons would only have to buy those plus another 14 million from Griffiths, plus another 10 million from elsewhere to take control of the Group. Pure speculation on my part, but that is what we like, isn't it?

I did hear that a lot of Spinks coin staff have walked out. Is Baldwin's up for sale? They might be going there......

The company has increased its gold deposits but there has been a bit of ii profit taking after a big rise in sp in Jan and Feb. The sp has moved sideways since then but there seems to be another movement up so I am thinking of a possible move to 16p. I have added move of these recently.

Banksman: I think you are overvaluing the stock figure. I can't tell you how I arrived at my figures, without virtually revealing my identity, but I do have extensive knowledge of their business. Short term we have seen a bit of a bounce in the share price but it remains to be seen where it will be come xmas.

Although I must add that using the chart comparison, over 3 months we are up 76% and HOC is also up 76%, so I guess others are catching us up rather than the other way round. I expect the next move we might start rising.

I was about to post the same thing Phoebus. We are in the doldrums whilst others storm ahead. I can only presume some ii's are offloading to bank a profit and there is a stock overhang. Hopefully we will catch up soon.

I think an mcap of £30m is still excessive given the expected losses already announced. Unfortunately with SG in such a mess, investors panic and rush for the exits causing further downwards pressure on prices and alarm amongst collectors. My view is an mcap of somewhere under £20m is possible, which on your figures equates to about 12p a share today.

An SP of 20p seems unlikely

Unfortunately the cash does not alter the dire state of the biz. There are certain areas of the Group doing well which will be sold off when the Group is broken up. However you can add up the sum of the parts and reach a figure some way under the present market cap, particularly now the investment side is unwinding and presumably SG will have to honour the various buyback guarantees which were in place when SG originally embarked on their philatelic ponzi scheme. I wouldn't buy into any company whose catalogues (i.e. price lists) dictate the value of a stock. I prefer to leave it to market forces to make the value of anything and everything.

What did Gibbons pay for it and did they lose on the deal?

GLIF looks rather oversold now but I confess their business model is fairly confusing. Nevertheless dividends have been steady until now so there may be a cut on the horizon. Lending to others is usually profitable, but I'm glad I shifted funds out of here a few months ago. I think a management statement might be useful at this point.

Unfortunately I don't think this is a long term investment. Stanley Gibbons stock value is underpinned by its own catalogues. Even if the market in stamps collapses SG is not going to reduce catalogue values and reduce its stock value, and yet the market in stamps is declining. SG will end up with a stock level that does not represent market value. If Gibbons are not buying for stock, this will have a real knock on effect in the market place, and speed up the decline in 'real' stamp values. I think the prospect of stock writedowns will have a continuing impact on the share price.

Thank you for information. I will research further.