Member Info for CarefulBunny

Yes, I met her at the PHE AGM. Had a very brief discussion, in which she amicably deflected the idea of Poland getting operational first, as they were working very closely with PHE (eg sharing notes and de-risking together), and also said she would be addressing the politics in Poland, where there was a big issue of people in the coal industry losing their jobs - and perhaps getting new green jobs with initiatives like HUI's use of PHE. Various quotes of hers mentioned on this board continue to build a picture in my mind of a sensible person, ambitious for HUI and PHE.

Hi Valuation-it-is. Not sure you read all of my post? I did include the section starting
Even if you discount that by half on the "yes, but it's risky" view, and ended up with 344p - not far from your 38.5p.

Anyway, I'm not selling!

Any shareholder aware of the potential of this company will also be aware of the potential increase in its share price, and will not be interested in offers around 15p. Given the possibility of £1 and even £3 - £5 or more in a few years, the rational approach would be consider what would be the present value of say £1 in five years. If you assume growth of value of 5% per annum, £1 x 0.95 raised to the 5th power gives a present value of 77p. 10% gives £1 x 0.90 to the 5th, or 59p. Even if you discount that by half on the "yes, but it's risky" view and/or the "you'll have done very well, you should be satisfied with your gain, you still get between 29p and 39p, say 34p. My view is, whatever company pulled off a buyout at 34p would be making a killing. On this view, shareholders should hold on, and not let the big boys walk off with it, for at least two more years, when the value will begin to emerge. Only my view, not advice: DYOR of course.

I remember from a discussion in the margins at the AGM the main point was they were being hyper-thorough about the first implementation, to be absolutely certain they were de-risking it, so subsequent implementations could follow without incident. From that perspective the share price in the short term hardly matters; the big issue is what happens after the first few builds have been completed. Not much help for shareholders who suddenly need to raise cash, I know.

A few months ago I actually emailed the R4 programme Today about three times telling them about PHE. Unbelievable.

Correction to myself: I now read the heat pump, if configured to be reversible, acts as an air conditioner in summer, which makes more sense than what I first understood.
Watch this space, I guess.

Thanks Dr A. Not sure I'm too keen on a heating system that works best in the summer! Our house has some large spaces (two story central room, high ceiling living room) and a complicated perimeter with many external walls. Our gas central heating sends hot air through underfloor ducts, so we have the great benefit of no radiators. I'm hoping we will be allowed to choose between fully electric and (preferred) hydrogen/nitrogen mix, so we can move fairly seamlessly through a hydrogen-ready boiler to a switchover, just like the coal gas to natural gas switchover of a few decades ago. The heat pump idea seems to me to be a huge capital expense for the country, and perhaps an unnecessarily expensive way of going about it. Clearly something has to be done, as we are in the biggest dead end imaginable at the moment. I expect PHE will have a role to play somewhere along the line, even if only to deal with the plastic clear up. Surely they wouldn't leave that to microbes to deal with. Would they?

The more I hear about heat pumps - and see pictures of them - the more I do not think they are a practical solution to numerous small city homes with minimal or no outside space. The doubts about hydrogen seem to be about cost and non-green production. The world's inventors are now focused on this, but PHE could have a significant part to play , surely.

I don't think so. At the AGM when I asked her if the Polish site would come in first, Ms Aleksander told me no, they were working very closely with PHE, sharing knowledge. The technical chap said the overall approach was to de-risk. I got the impression they were being very careful, getting every last risk covered so that subsequent roll-out would be smooth as possible.

... and I note that the agreement with HUI (other than Greece, Hungary, and Poland) is non exclusive.

I would expect any new CEO to get their feet under the table and do due diligence before any announcements, unless they are someone who has been on or associated with the team for some time. I expect we will hear one or two things by Christmas.

Beware news of how large the market for these kilns will be, and much much hydrogen will be used, etc etc.
Several times I have seen investor euphoria collapse when it finally became clear that, while there are plenty of mice, their mousetrap was not the one the market finally chose.

I’m heavily invested in PHE, but the proof will come in the pudding, and not before!

Sensetalka: Re "I do wonder what PHE are going to do with the mountains of cash they'll be raking in given they'll be breakeven or better with just x3 DMG's in operation."
- it does occur to me that this is a risk. All very well if they rake in dosh, give it out as dividends, and PHE becomes more valuable, but
- if they
- pay themselves a fortune
- do a Marconi and use it for fruitless pursuits
- lose it every which way
then PHE shares may not become or remain so valuable.
Will they invest in more research into more super ideas?
Well, let's not worry about future chickens until they hatch - but keep the risk on the list nevertheless.

Thanks Dr A, and senstalka, that makes sense.

Am I right that HUI's exclusive agreement means that only they can build PHE systems in Hungary, Poland, and Greece, but they will have to (like everyone else) pay £500k per year to operate them? Or do they have a different deal? I found the RNS slightly confusing to read. I have emailed PHE about it, but no reply so far.
Maybe Dr A would know?

Re whether Poland will get there first, I asked about this in the margins at the AGM, and the reply was, “No, we will be working together with UK, checking on issues with each other all the time.” I guess it won’t matter much either way.

Replying to Sensetalka, there is of course a big distinction between the size of the market and the size of the sales. There are many variables and unforeseen things that may limit PHE's expansion. Millions of mice and the world's best mouse trap is a good place to start, and I am please to be a long term shareholder having followed the company for may years and I wish it well and I attended the last AGM. Nevertheless, at this stage it is a speculation still. Fingers crossed !

I was at the AGM. Nothing fraudulent about any of it. This is major technology, which they must , will, and are, getting right, with more than a few bits of bureaucratic hurdles to get over - most of which they have already jumped. Re 2023, I expect the Protos site to be up and running - and available for due diligence inspection and demonstration - well before the final commissioning sign-off. These guys are not fools, and they are finishing off the final stages of important de-risking. It all takes time.

Looking at that link, it seems PHE should cultivate a sense of urgency !

Thanks