Load factor may be down... but it escapes the notice of most of the (shallow) press reports on the figures for last month that when Tegel started up, load factor for that operation was only about 50-60%, because they inherited the routes, timetables, etc. As Easyjet get into their stride, the business has improved, which is why Tegel figures are now included in the monthly stats. Tegel is a substantial operation, but not yet fully optimised - so the numbers are up and the overall load factor is down. Simples.
Lo and behold, all is not well with Zimbabwe Airways... From News24:
"The price of planes bought from Malaysia for a new Zimbabwe airline may have been inflated by up to $140 million, prompting a probe by President Emmerson Mnangagwa�s government, a private newspaper claimed on Friday. Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa and Transport Minister Joram Gumbo said on Wednesday the government had paid $41 million for two Boeing 777s and a smaller Embraer aircraft from Malaysia, to be leased to a new airline: Zimbabwe Airways. But the private Daily News, citing "highly-placed sources" said $140 million couldn't be accounted for, prompting a probe by President Emmerson Mnangagwa. ...Questions have been raised as to why the government is supporting a competitor to its own national airline Air Zimbabwe. "
Thanks faltherelmer, So for January, that's 176 + 346 E45 flights = 522 flights = 26,100 seats @ say a cautious 90% load factor = 23,490 passengers. And for Tanzania it's 474 E190 flights = 45,504 seats @ say a cautious 80% load factor = 36,403 passengers.
Total passengers for the 31 day month therefore = 59,893. For a full year, on current volumes, that would be say 705,000 passengers - which is less than the 2015 and 2016 volumes, the last we have, of c.790,000, but of course with a much lower cost base (cheaper fleet costs, running costs, pilots, head office).
Finally, let's say $85 income per passenger (reasonable?), would be say c.$60m pa.
Happy to take adjusted figures based on better info!
I see there's an (undated) announcement on the fastjet website: "Fastjet achieves 91% network-wide on time performance during January "Fastjet is proud to announce that during January 2018 we achieved a 91% network-wide on time performance. 996 flights were operated across 5 countries and 11 routes. A 91% on time performance was achieved in Zimbabwe, 94% in Tanzania and 82% in Mozambique." Wonder of wonders, we have some facts and figures!
The impression I have is that the Facebook moaning mainly relates to Mozambique, where the LCC pricing model is unknown, and they are therefore 'behind the curve', so to speak. Given that we set up an airline there from scratch in a month or so, it is perhaps not surprising that explaining the pricing wasn't top of the list. But fastjet need to get on top of this locally, before things fester.
PJMINVEST, I agree with you (that "Nico said we would be in profit during the last quarter not For the last quarter"). In fact I will be ecstatic if during December we make an operational profit in all three bases (Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Mozambique), as this would be a firm foundation for a share price hike. Hopefully the big fleet problems/changes are behind us, and as we go into December we do seem to be operating moderately well on all fronts.
Any contributions to Group costs from the existing operations would be a good sign, as these central costs should stay relatively fixed as we expand, eg into South Africa with FedAir, new routes with the three ATR72s, etc.
Yes Fjetcrazy, we now have three liveried E145s - but if we are talking style, the best one is ZS-DFC, 'cos that has a pure white base without the original Solenta cheat line and grey lower area of the other two. The 'purer' fastjet livery, like the original A319s and the new E190s, is especially better for E145s, as they are already rather long and thin! In my opinion, obviously. See ZS-DFC at https://www.jetphotos.com/photo/8759185
Mozambique joins the real world...07 Nov 2017 12:30
Some interesting views from the Mozambican Transport Minister Carlos Mesquita at the fastjet launch, including that �The government deposits great hope in air transport, as a catalyst and a strategic industry for valuing the vast resources spread across the national territory, and to guarantee the accelerated development of our economy.� The whole approach seems more informed than I expected for Mozambique - let's hope it continues into action!