Prop5 I pointed out the their own RNS stated that they thought their Covid orders for the second half of the year were on target to exceed their orders for the first half, which given that they weren't really producing anything in Jan, Feb and March, suggested to me that their orders might in fact be tailing off?
It turns out that their management just likes to under promise and over deliver! Yeah right.
I'm hopeful however that Avacta's Covid related orders for the second half of the year will exceed those for the first and the orders for the first half of 2021 will nothing short of sensational.
If you can't quote from a company's own RNS on a bulletin board dedicated to that company then what's the world coming to?
I think he'll talk about it but not name it.
I was slightly anxious that last time he did this he said that they won't be ready for a...
"long time.... er.... some time".
A week is a long time in Politics and during a Covid pandemic second wave I'm sure a week feels like forever.
The house broker says that Condor 'may' get the BBI test strips in September but more likely October?
Validation during October and November whilst BBI, Abingdon and others(?) build up stock piles and ready to go by Christmas is my time line.
Not the summer for sure but I'm still not seeing anything else out there that looks like it might challenge a good Avacta/Cytiva LFD and the new web site just makes me realise how much of a 'shop window' product for Affimers this test will be.
The share price is at an almost all time high despite what are undoubtedly fairly significant delays.
The Avacta Investors Presentation.
Updates on all their various activities and looking at the new website I suspect we'll be hearing everything that we want to hear and quite a lot that will be new to us.
Between now and then stuff'll happen I guess?
Lots on the new web site, all we've been told but now more obviously worked up and ready for others to utilise via the IP/licensing route. Affimer pairs for sandwich assays etc. Bespoke diagnostic Affimer generation whatever your diagnostic or laboratory requirement.
Too much to mention really but so obviously a different company to even 6 months ago.
Affimers are now becoming available to one and all for a multitude of potential uses.
Avacta continue to go for Covid but they're laying the groundwork for so much more.
There's going to be a lot of licensing work and income generation coming our way over the next few years regardless of Covid.
Today isn't even the start of the beginning?
AgentB the Affimers 'latch on' to the Spike Proteins.
They're exquisitely selective.
They wouldn't couple even if you set them up for a cosy candle lit dinner on a blind date.
They have eyes only for Spike proteins.
I agree Pigster.
Smallpox of course was eradicated by a coordinated global vaccination strategy.
For a similar outcome with Covid we'll first need a vaccine that's as effective and then the will and finance to implement it as well as teams of armed 'hit squads' with changes in the law to compel people in the USA and closer to home to be vaccinated against their will.
It's a crazy World out there and I fear the reality will be that it'll settle back into the background with occasional flares and ill people who'll be managed as many are today with similar serious viral respiratory tract infections with the difference however being that Avacta neutraliser therapy will significantly improve their chances of a full and speedy recovery.
Herd immunity isn't a 'plan' Pigster it's how the 'battle' between species and infections has been played out over the last few million years.
A little over 100 years ago the expectation that a mother or baby or both might die in childbirth was a very real prospect now either eventuality would be viewed as a tragedy.
Covid is no different from many other infections that have come and gone. What's changed is our perspective that humans, or actually humans in the developed World, shouldn't die from them. Which is a relatively new mindset really.
How many infectious diseases have been eradicated by humans in the last century? Small pox and... ?
What makes you think Covid can be eradicated? It doubt that it can. Individuals will just have to balance the risks and benefits at an individual level and Governments on a societal level.
People will die. They always have and always will. We're not living in a Disney movie. Effective vaccination or long lasting herd immunity is the only way to reach the end game here for the vast majority of the population.
Fairplay Chrisar, it's a view.
Underplay and over deliver.
It might happen but some companies deliver their financial results in a way that they don't rely on investors filling the gaps in themselves and hoping that they're right.
When companies do that it's ambiguous and that's not ideal.
Good luck your share price has certainly been doing OK recently.
And the line from the NCYT RNS ShearClass?
Is that just a 'ramble' too?
Can you answer my point rather than drifting off at a tangent rather choosing to avoid the point.
Genuinely no more posts from me but I'll put a challenge out there for investors.
Can anyone make a decent stab at explaining how NCYTs own statement that their Covid orders for the second year are 'on track' (ie might not happen?) for the second half of the year might exceed the orders for the first half of the year is a positive.
Lets say they do exceed those of the first half, perhaps by 10% but for a full 6 months of sales as opposed to the likely 3 months of sales in the first half.
Be fair, it's a good point to discuss and if it can't be argued away in any meaningful sense must surely be something that investors should discuss.
I'll pop back later to read the usual nonsense and name calling but hope someone will give it a fair shot without muddying the waters by mentioning France, USA, Winterplex or their planned diversification strategy (whatever that actually is).
Isolating the infectious can reduce the 'R' rate and reduce the prevalence of Covid in the community but it can't rid us of it DOH85.
It will however allow society to return to something approaching normal with flares and hot spots being detected early enough to limit onward transmission. It will also serve to prolong how long it takes for herd immunity to develop more widely, if that is how it ultimately plays out. Successful mass testing will actually lead to a situation where testing needs to continue for much longer. Not bad then for Avacta holders hopefully?
That's the best we can hope for I'm afraid.
I'll not post again as it's not my intention to upset people.
I'm happy to discuss what NCYT's own RNS suggests about what their 'real World' prospects are however.
Sentiment though as risehall says is driving the price of many Covid stocks at the moment but sentiment is a fickle beast and you wouldn't want to be invested the day that someone points out that the Emperor has no clothes on and sentiment changes?
But about the half yearly orders for the second half of the year being 'on track' to exceede those in the first half, which effectively means April, May and June?
It's in black and white and is a relatively easy point to counter.
So rather than name calling and personalising what appears to me to be a very obvious and matter of fact post about NCYT's forward looking orders and prospects why don't you reply to the point raised?
If NCYT's orders are currently plateaued or falling investors should surely at least be aware of that?
NCYT's communications and shareholder updates are far for good and leave posters speculating in a vacuum rather than basing their decisions on hard facts?
The UK is currently doing about 200,000 Coronavirus tests a day but is talking about doing 'millions' of tests daily in the near future.
The current system is widely regarded as being at breaking point.
The current system is PCR based.
What on earth makes you think that in a matter of months the PCR system is going to be able to be increased to provide over 5x the current testing capacity? That's simply not credible.
The Government are clearly anticipating the majority of these tests being done using other technologies and are openly saying so.
The very size of the testing planed is surely a sign that NCYT should be worried and be anticipating reduced PCR testing needs and not more? If other tests are considered suitable for testing they're more than likely to be cheaper and easier to offer than PCR.
Did the recent RNS talk about the massive potential implicit in the Government's Moonshot programme or did it say:
' Visibility of orders for the Company's COVID-19 product portfolio suggests H2 2020 performance on track to exceed that of H1 2020'
NCYT's first half yearly figures include January, February and March when there wasn't much testing being done?
So the figures for the second half of the year (July-December) are on track to exceed the 3 months in the first half when testing was being ramped up?
I should jolly well hope the figures for the second half of the year exceeded those from the first half!
I'd actually be worried that the monthly figures were actually falling and being disguised by language and careful use of which time frame is chosen?
And scanning the RNS again, which of course I should have done before posting, their ELISA test does indeed use Affimers to replace the antibody component of the ELISA test to link the enzyme to the antigen (Covid Spike).
Of course that was why it was so much more sensitive at detecting the spike protein than the other tests out there which use those large cumbersome antibodies. 500 times more sensitive wasn't it?
Tickled guess what?
You're wrong again I'm afraid.
Yes it uses antibodies to detect the protein you're testing for, here the Covid spike protein but it's not testing for an individual's antibody response to Covid. It's using antibodies to detect the Covid spike protein, which is guess what:
So it's using antibodies to be an antigen test!
Keeping up at the back still?
As Avacta was using the ELISA test as it's reference test for laboratory validation I guess they were using antibodies.
Question for the 28th: Is their any reason Affimers couldn't be used to bind the enzyme linked assay to the spike protein and would there be any advantages in doing so? Both scientific and commercial?
No replies and no recs Leewill39?
Well that was well worth a rec and likely to be the best post of the day in my book.
I suggest everyone spends 30 minutes giving it a run through as the presentation is pretty clear and comprehensible.
Mass Spectrometer tests will be being used and they're currently doing in-vitro validation for the FDA-EUA.
BAMS will clearly need to offer something better, cheaper or different if it is to maximise it's use.
Here they're getting 384 tests per day per machine (but that's an 8 hour working day I think) and each test comes in at £2.50.
Samples are collected at home via a gargle/collection pot and posted in.
There was no mention of batch testing.
Comparison was made with 'expensive' PCR testing (sorry NCYT but you know it's true).
Bottom line is that capacity is needed and Mass Spectrometers are being bought it to help provide it.
They're test development time has been 2-3 months and they're not there yet so we shouldn't be too hard on Adeptix.
What does BAMS offer over and above this test? More powerful? Cheaper? Able to offer Batch Testing to allow 3000 samples to be analysed per machine per day (8hours?)
Questions for the 28th I think.
Near term Covid upside looks too good to ignore for the moment Van but I'll tuck it away for a look some time in 2021 perhaps although I do have my own cunning plan as to where I'm putting my Covid fortune.
I hope hydrogen comes good but mainly from a carbon/greenhouse perspective.