No russukarian I'm 100% in Matad. It's all or nothing for me. Oil at Heron and or Gazelle however and I'll have a pretty sum to put somewhere else. At the moment I'm minded to put most of it into UKOG. Less upside but minimal risk I think and a possible 2-3 bagger over the near to medium term. Perhaps 25% in here if the Matad result comes out before I3e?
If Matad doesn't help me out however I'll probably need to put it all into a high potential stock like this to make up lost ground, or lose the lot if this one doesn't come to anything. It's a giant game of snakes and ladders. From where I am if I shake a 2, 3,4 or 6 I'm up a large ladder but 1 or 5 and it's an equally large snake. The dice are rolling.
I think the problem for me was that when well 16 was still thought of as the 1000 bopd gusher everyone noted that well 38 was a 'look alike' prospect and therefore should be expected to do the same or better.
Now well 16 is a water laden disaster zone I don't see why there isn't the risk that well 38 is the same? I know they've 'learnt' from well 16 but it might not be as easy as that. Also when the well 38 results are in they're bound to be more cautious (honest?) in how it's reported and if it ain't great I don't expect the share price to react well.
Thanks Ophidian. I've looked in a few times before but it takes a while and more intensive input to really get a feel for what a company is trying to achieve. People appear to have been backing this one as the 'next big thing' for a while but to date it's been mainly promises with little follow through? I hope that's about to change.
So buy now at 4.8p and have the last laugh?
It's better to buy a share at 4p several weeks before two high chance of success wells and then shoot north than buy at 37p and hold all the way down.
Any particular reason you chose those dates and prices? Peaks on the graph by any chance?
Scoobyrex. Just because a stock is down on it's luck doesn't mean that ther're not worth considering as an investment. Matad currently has a lot of significant potential upside within the next 3 weeks. It's not without risk but I'd imagine less than Bloe and certainly much less than SXX.
They'd be meaningless updates. Pictures of rigs and the Mongolian landscape at the most. More sensible to post nothing.
No. I'm afraid it's just a waiting game now for the next couple of weeks or longer for both.
You're right of course Duster as am I. It is all about luck. The stated chance of success is only a guide but it should be remembered that of course the result of previous drills has no bearing on the chance of other drills being successfull or failures unless they're in the same area or of the same type. Luckily however this does apply to the Heron drill which has been assigned appraisal status as it's testing the same oil field as an already producing well. Hence the very haigh chance of success assigned to it. Apart from that all we know about the Heron drill is that they've found oil and that the oil bearing strata are broadly as found elsewhere in the field, including the producing well 1km away, but that it's porosity and permiability are better than expected which is a bonus is it not?
Might not happen but the odds are increasingly in it's favour. I'm not sure luck is what will make oil flow and it wont be luck if it does flow and I get rich. I like to think it would have been an objective look at the share price (market cap) and the likely rise in share price and sentiment that would follow an oil find at Heron (and possibly Gazelle).
The rock bottom sentiment has been entirely to my advantage. My average price is very low which will maximise the returns to me should it all go well and minimise loses should it not.
4p strikes me as an excellent get in price. But it's not for you as we all know. Each to their own.
I don't know. I find the high level of their critique and obvious in-depth knowledge of the oil exploration industry a little disconcerting. It's not like they're just constantly posting mindless one liners is it?
Ha ha ha he he he. LOL.
And on a real note. 11% spread. The market makers will likely be moving this up and down at their discretion untill some genuine direction is established prior to the next RNS. I'd expect upward pressure to be far more likely than downward but am all in regardless for the next 2 RNSs. One or both could potentially transform my work life balance over the next 2 - 3 years. Pay off the mortgage 5 years early and spend the monthly payments of stuff that counts. That would be nice.
Off topic: For any fans of 'Cabin Pressure' when Martin is laughing about Mr and Mrs Altimeter. Ha ha. He he. It's an in joke but google tonight and listen to some quality comedy. It's a radio show but all the better for it.
There's an 11% spread. The market makers are trying to generate a little extra trade. It'll move back to where it should be by Monday. Probably 10% up with 10% spread. Unless the RNS lands? Until then it's just noise.
Sooner or later it'll re-rate. The question is when and how high. Perhaps not untill it's flowing sustainably? Broadford Bridge and the preceeding hype is still being felt I think. The progress, or lack of it, at Angus can't have helped either. You don't actually know that it's going to flow until it does. And yes I know that this is a Portland well and not Kimmeridge.
Interesting about doing the extra 4th core though. I wonder how long they've known about that?
Was the announcement delayed for effect or have they just found out just in time before the the horizontal well when it would have been too late? Nearly another Weald oiler ****-up?
Glad to see the volatility. It shows there's interest out there on the sidelines.
That static 4.25p nonsense with daily little drops was no fun at all.
If there's a good rumour or oil this is a coiled spring waiting to go and will do well. Nothing could have been worse than a good RNS and a poor share price reaction. If you take the risk with an oil drill you want to think that the market will reward that gamble. And I think it will.
Pre drill/flow rate volatility. No surprise there then?
A falling share price today means no more than yesterday's rise except I'd be surprised if we got anything like as bit a fall.
It'll settle somewhere and build into Friday's close I'd have thought. 4p pre results was too low as yesterday's rise on nothing shows quite clearly.