Member Info for CapitaFanBoy

I don't post here often (as I hold a lot more Capita than I do easyJet) BUT I think that silence is golden here - if Castlelake were going to walk away they wouldn't have asked to see the books ... If management weren't prepared to entertain a deal then they wouldn't have shown them the books!

So all to play for - I bought in for the longer term at £3.45 and I haven't sold a single share since - I'm expecting an offer of £7 OR an extension followed by an offer of £7.

At the end of the day though - as none of us are privy to the negotiation - it's pure guesswork BUT fortune favours the brave!

@kipper - I can't see these going back to £2.30 - that only makes sense to @aim - not to anyone else!

I'm still hopeful that we will hold around this £3 as we hear this week that the CSPS is slowly coming back to acceptable service levels and the market then starts to eye August results on the horizon.

I think anyone waiting for below £2.80 will be disappointed this time around - I guess this week will prove whether I am right or not!

Surely the best time to bed and ISA £10,000 worth of shares is when the price is low ...?

If you held 2,000 shares at £5 in the trading account then it would use £10,000 of your ISA allowance when you bed and ISA BUT if you waited until the shares were £4.50 each then it would only use £9,000 of your ISA allowance

So by bed and ISAing when the SP is lower means you can get more shares into your ISA tax free

@kipper - absolutely no way is Capita going to lose the CSPS contract - not in a million years .

It's really really painful moving core infrastructure services (such as pension scheme management) between disparate service providers - the best outcome is that "nothing changes" during the move - the worst outcome (which we have been witnessing in slow motion) is absolute and utter carnage.

Having gone through carnage once (moving it to Capita) - once stabilised - it's never going to move again!

It's pretty clear that problems with the CSPS contract are going to continue beyond 30-06 - and I'm sure we will here lots more noise from Fran and the union - but I also think it's already priced into the SP.

I am really heartened that £3 has not been broken and it may well be that £3 is the bottom this time around - we shall see.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this back at £4 ahead of results in August either

@kipper - to answer your question - why the drop of 26% in only a couple of weeks - the answer is pretty obviously because of the noise coming out of the Civil Service Pension Contract.

There has been no other news in that time period to justify a rise or a fall and the shorters are also betting on a negative Civil Service Pension outcome too ...

Of course - it's taken such an effort to move and sort out the broken Civil Service Pension Contract that it's almost impossible to imagine that it will subsequently be moved away from Capita - that's just not going to happen once it's stabilised.

So it's all pension noise which should gradually fade as progress continues to be made.

@kipper - definitely not blinkered. As Richard Staveley explained today - there is a lot of noise regarding the Civil Service Pension Contract at the moment as the June deadline approaches and that certainly is having a negative effect on the SP.

I appreciate we are in a downtrend - but with most of the historic issues in this company now fixed (Royal London contract, Loss making Call Centres etc) and large renewals (TfL worth £900m today for example) - we won't be down for long.

It's interesting that £3 held today - it doesn't normally hold on the way down - and your mate Aim was calling £2.92 this morning.

A lot of short interest is readily explained by the CSPS noise and - with an update due next week - we should see those close soon .

£3 - by any measure - is an absolute bargain for the position this company now finds itself in AND ... DANs mate must be pretty confident to borrow shares at £3.21 .... on an UP bet.

So your assertion that Dan has leant out his own shares was wrong and I was just correcting you btw

@kipper - Dan DIDN'T lend out his shares ....

Dan's MATE - borrowed some shares at £3.21 because they obviously felt they were going to go UP from that price ...

I know that doesn't fit into your narrative (or the narrative of your identical twin @aim) but that is the truth - unlike a lot of the rubbish you post these days!

@adam - basically a "mate" of Dan from Oasis (who is now on the CPI board) has borrowed a load of shares at £3.21 (probably borrowed them from Oasis but the RNS doesn't say that).

For the privilege of borrowing the shares - Dan's mate has got to pay the lender of the shares some interest every month.

If the shares go higher than £3.21 then Dan's mate pockets the profit and if the shares go lower than £3.21 then Dan's mate has got to stump up the loss.

That's a simple explanation

@abi - history indicated this is not a long term hold unless you are beating a path to the poor house.

It is highly volatile and - from what I can see - most people here are trading it!

There isn't a lot of clarity on what the *long term" looks like here - so short termism rules the day!

@olda - I couldn't agree with you more (in fact I followed you into this as I am also friends with Marcus over on the CPI board).

It would take a very big decision (by a small business) to switch SaaS accounting platforms - a decision which most small business will not be prepared to make.

The most recent RNS was solid and - I agree - the AI threat just isn't real here (as SGE are adding capability here and most small business owners can't spell AI).

Nothing to fear hear although it looks to be a bit of a traders share (with wild swings between £8.20 and £9 for no obvious reason)!

@Max - I think it's almost certain that Capita don't meet the promise of clearing everything up with the CSPS by the end of June - it's just a question of how far they miss the promise and then how the market reacts

Capita won't comment - I would guess - until results in early August so we may have a number of weeks of market uncertainty.

I think that's one of the reasons (along with consolidating) why we remain around £4 at the moment.

I added a few more today after seeing that £3 opening spike as I think a lot of people will be auto reinvesting the dividend (later this week) and that's likely to push the share price over £2.80 and beyond

So I thought I would get in early and "lend" the dividend to my share account - ahead of the rush!

Hi

I've recently invested here - how confident are we that Capita will meet the June deadline to get this contract back in good shape?

Does anyone have any thoughts?

All looking good here - I recently bought in as I think the AI strategy looks transformational

Good to see the SP pushing ahead whilst the wider markets are down ...

Perhaps another attempt at £4 today?