Member Info for CapitaFanBoy

@kipper - after this week's performance you've got to think £5 would be enough and i would expect a lot of LTHs would probably take less ....

Unfortunately I don't think it's going to happen and it's always out of desperation that LTHs hope for a bid to emerge .... and it rarely does!

However - with Oasis already holding 15% - we can but hope!

@hello - I'd like Oasis to make an offer for the whole company - put all us long term holders out of our misery - and then create a total rebrand to lose all the reputational damage created by the CRAPITA brand.

I would imagine that Dan from Oasis (now on the board at Capita and holding shares purchased at £4.04) is looking back in anger .... in fact I reckon he will be FURIOUS

@sister - it's not a bad bid - it's a fully coated profitable bid that has been based on the information provided to the sales teams by The Cabinet Office.

Once won - and during due diligence (if there was any) - it was not flagged that there was a hugely substantial backlog and the figures (which formed the basis of the original sales bid) were wrong.

At due diligence - this should have even returned to sales to renegotiate the contract based on the new information - and then passed back to implementation.

Because it wasn't put back to sales - the implementation teams were trying to implement a pension solution expecting a backlog of 37,000 cases when in fact there were 50,000 more

Definitely an implementation issue from where I'm sitting

Never confuse sales - with implementation - it's an old adage that is proven here ...

The sales team would not have won the CSPS deal at "any cost" because there are defined parameters for bidding ...

It's the implementation team that has failed here due to exceptionally poor / non existence due diligence AND then compounded by very poor EXECUTION and DELIVERY.

The sales and management team did well to win this - the implementation team has let the side down!

@kipper - he didn't have a choice other than to take the contract - otherwise he would have been complicit in allowing a competitor to gain a foothold into Synergy.

That wasn't the error ..... It was the lack of due diligence and the failure to renegotiate the contract when the enormity of the backlog was discovered.

Probably not AHs fault at all - although the can always stops at the top - but it has set us back about 2 years again regardless!

I never - ever - thought we would return to platform £2.25 again and I was wrong and you were right ....

Hopefully you will join us now we've come back to pick you up ....

@kipper - I think you are wrong - 18p is too cheap on where the company is now (with or without CSPS) and this has all been a rather big storm in a teacup.

No point bringing forward a TU if it's going to stress the SP further and don't forget "Dan the man" is now on the board (holding shares he bought at £4.04) and he won't want additional stress on the SP.

I think this will rally to just over £3 on the update, then flatten ahead of another rally after H1 results back to around £3.25 / £3.50.

The whole DCC mess has now been cleared up today too - and I remember that cratering the SP last August by about £1 or more .... Ha didn't get the £1 back this morning though Ha

@Rik1 - I suspect the Trading Update will confirm the Contact Centre business is gone and also confirm the FCF situation being on track for H1.

It may well talk about the impairment due to CSPS contract and I suspect the Trading Update is being delivered early to steady the ship that has been listing since the RNS that apologised ....

@rik - it was stated in yesterday's RNS at 0700

@fraz CSPS will be profitable - previous Capita turkey contracts were not!

Tough commercial decision - accept CSPS (profitable) contract as a gateway to SYNERGY or walk away and allow a competitor to gain a foothold and possibly lose SYNERGY contract too.

Probably the right decision was to accept the CSPS contract (to block competitors) but the contract should have been amended during due diligence when it became clear that CSPS was broken beyond immediate repair.

It's the guys doing the due diligence who should be FIRED - not the management / sales staff (who have landed a great contract) - because it was clear (as early as last summer) that Civil Service Pensions were in trouble

Water under the bridge now - get it fixed - get it stabilised then DON'T MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE WITH SYNERGY

@kipper - they may not have had a CHOICE - to maintain the Government relationship and to get a foothold into the entire SYNERGY project - they were almost DUTY BOUND to accept the contract if they wanted the doorway to remain open into The Cabinet Office for them

Allowing a 3rd party to run CSPS (however totally bust it was) would be akin to allowing your competitors to have privileged access to your star customer!

CSPS is, granted, only a small contract - but it is a GATEWAY to much larger riches ....

Capita were right to accept the contract but they should have been much more proactive during due diligence when it became clear it was a complete TURKEY

@kipper - yes totally agree - always jam tomorrow - and as we all know - tomorrow never comes!

I think you once said "when these reach £3 again I'm out" - well I won't be that extreme but I am going to seriously reduce as we head back to the mid £3s - which I am certain we will do again this year!

@kipper - hard to put lipstick on a pig so I can't see how this can be positively spinned ....

I still think Capita have done enough to retain the contract (but probably a little less certain of this today than I was yesterday) and there will obviously be impairments to the Capita bottom line this year BUT ....

Looking at the broad set of contracts generating revenue for Capita and the removal of their loss making businesses - you've got to think that this is worth more than 19p a share (old money).

Over reaction by the market today - perhaps - trading update later this week will be interesting - it should recover from here as long as they don't lose the contract!

As you would expect (from a CapitaFanBoy) - just a post to remind everyone that this was trading at BELOW £2.80 only 5 trading days ago!

So although today has been a, not unexpected, set back - it's only minor and with a trading update imminent there is nothing to say we won't be back over £3 by this time next week!

Massive over reaction today although £2.70 held firm (for now) so that must be a good sign!

@kipper - well my theory about shorters joining the party because of fear over the CSPS was correct ...

Back down the snake we go ...... Justifiably!

@YTeeBack - it's very hard to play the drop from £4 down to £2.75 and then back again ON HERE - because when you try and warn the "true believers" that the s****e will hit the fan as the market becomes aware that the CSPS will not meet it's 30th June due date ....

You are totally cancelled here if you dare warn anyone that the share may not sustain the current price - it's a form of delusional madness that's held by the majority of the long term faithful.

As a result - the faithful have held from £4 back to £2.30 back to £4 back to £2.75 since March without banking or hedging anything .... JUST BELIEVING!

Objectivity vanishes here as soon as the SP starts rising ....

@sam - don't be greedy - take you profit!

@kipper - my theory (and it's only a theory) is that the short positions are increasing now to hedge against the long positions (that are already in place).

Some may be shorting because they expect an imminent market down turn (and they might be right) but it's debatable how affected Capita would be given the robustness of it's multi year revenue generating contracts.

It makes no sense to be shorting at this level based on what we already know although some may be being drawn in by the CSPS noise hoping Capita lose the contract (no way can that happen imo)

I wouldn't want to see Marshall Wace showing up - and to date they haven't - so I think the shorting is just another level of noise to be ignored as this MUST be on the cusp of a major rerate now.

It was interesting that a mate of "Dan the man" took out a total equity swap the other day as you've got to think that the other party in that swap was Oasis even though the RNS doesn't state this - so even Oasis aren't adverse to lending out their holding to make a few quid!

@Jordi - I agree that Capita due diligence was woefully missing as the CSPS was moved from MyCSP over to Capita HOWEVER the relationship with the Cabinet Office is so strong - and the business so lucrative - that I would suspect it would have been very difficult for Capita to turn the contract down once they were offered it

Capita has definitely been the Cabinet Offices whipping boy during this transition - and I suspect there will be commercial penalties for failing to achieve the impossible BUT in the greater picture - this whipping will lead to even more business as part of the Synergy deal .....

Happy to be the Cabinet Offices whipping boy if you keep awarding us multi million / billion pounds contracts!

I am convinced that is what's happening here - it would pain AH to be so publicly humiliated by the CSPS failings - but there must be much much much bigger fish to fry- hence why Capita keep their powder dry (and bank balances full)

@kipper - I don't think Capita are worries about reputational damage to the brand - if they were worried they would have rebranded CRAPITA at the outset of the turnaround.

What we have for to remember is that - despite all the noise from the unions - the Cabinet Office LOVE LOVE LOVE Capita - they even thought John Lewis was marvellous (just demonstrates how much the Capita brand is loved in Central Government).

This love affair is reciprocated by Capita NEVER defending itself despite all the misinformation and aggressive briefings out by the PCS union and others and leaving all public comment to the Cabinet Office

With 81% of Capita business coming from Government - this love affair is set to deliver a huge amount of new business and it would be astonishing if the CSPS contract was cancelled NOT LEAST because it's taken 8 months to almost stabilise it and it would take another 8 months (at least to move it and stabilise it again if it was moved in house).

Executive summary - no need to rebrand as pretty much all the business is coming from Government and they don't care about the Crapita brand as they love us!