Member Info for Candlestick

How much of the 960bcf could be recovered?

1%?
10%?
25%?

Even the lowest numbers seem eye-watering!

I believe Colin has said that they think the overlying reservoirs could hold as much as Cane Creek.

It did, to a degree.

Completely new BOD, new strategy and very strong shareholder alignment as they have around a 20% holding.

I wouldn’t base any investment on the history as it’s just not the same company.

Check out the recent investor presentations if you haven’t already.

Are 88e liable for ALL costs above $10m, or is this additional cost split with APDC?

Initial RNS said:
“APDC to earn 50% in Project Peregrine by contributing US$11.3m towards the cost of the Merlin-1 well (estimated gross cost US$12.6m)
-- 88E to contribute $1.3m, representing its 50% share over and above a US$10m carry
-- All additional costs associated with the project above the US$10m carry will be borne equally by APDC and 88E”

I don’t get how the costs to 88e are now $4m. This would mean the total costs are $18m just for Merlin, which is quite a leap. Or did the deal change after the RNS in Dec?

I read it that they have reduced, but only from 5.13% to 4.93% - so very little movement.

Ibroxonia - the warrants are worth £7k. Not exactly earth-shattering and will have zero impact on anything.

Chelwood - I’d recommend having a look through recent RNSs and videos / interviews with Colin Harrington, then see if your original viewpoint still stands. This a completely different company to the one you knew, I think you’ll be impressed with what you see.

OK, if that’s the reasoning then I’m comfortable that it’ll be soon.

The spud was early, the time to TD was done in record time. Neither affected by Covid and there’s no reason why the core data will be delayed, as far as I’m concerned.

ASX is live from 11pm - the date of that link was from May, so BST (hence midnight).

The Trading Halt RNS this morning seemed to be more of a FYI for AIM, rather than a trading halt on AIM.

Which means the second RNS was more of a “this is what’s happening” update, rather than the full info.

Which means there should be another RNS in the next day or so with more information (confirmation of deal?). All ready for ASX to re-open for trading by 17th.

Exciting times!

Why do you think it’s that far away?

CH said they’ll take between 1-3 months for drill results. We are now at the 1 month timeline, so news can literally come at any time.

The decision to drill the lateral will be taken BY the end of March, but you’re taking a chance if you’re betting on March 31st.

Thanks Gordon, that’ll teach me to look at the ‘other’ site for my info...

Yeah, 3 Billion+ you mean, Jonesrichard?

And if we hit the 5p you’re speaking of, we will have a market cap of around £160m.

I guess it depends on whether anything can be done over the weekend, which I’d say is very unlikely (if not impossible).

The phraseology of the statement makes it sound like there is work to do - “ The Company confirms that it has received a good level of interest from new and existing investors with the amount, pricing and timing of any capital raise yet to be confirmed. Accordingly, there is no certainty that a capital raise will be completed at this time and a further update will be provided in due course.”

It’s clear that there will be a placing and it’ll be at a lower price than we’re currently at.

If it’s left a few days then the price will drop lower and lower, as people know they’ll be able to buy lower - because the placing price will be at a discount to the prevailing price.
There are sometimes placings at current or premium price, but very rarely and hardly ever for mining stocks. So unless it’s already locked in, chances are we’ll be dropping below 30p.

Once it’s sorted, the price will rocket beyond 40p in the short term, as it’s a risk removed for people coming in or topping up. So no long term issue if you’re not selling.

FDA Calendar Days are the days that the FDA are actively reviewing the application.

At the point that they ask AGL to provide information, the ‘clock stops’ and doesn’t start again until the info is provided.

In recent history, FDA Days account for about 60% of the overall time, with Industry Days (time that they’re waiting for a response from the companies) around 40%.

So, they are targeting 150 FDA Days (which is a goal, but may be impacted by Covid), but expect that time to be significantly extended based on the Industry Days. Hence AN stating Q2 at the earliest.

Personally, I don’t see anything coming back until May (my personal guess is May 4th), but as we don’t know how many (if any) “clock stops” there have been / will be, we are all in the dark.
It could be next week, it could be September. As long as it gets cleared, I’m good with either, and anything in between!

“DEVICE MAY BE LEGALLY MARKETED.”

And isn’t that going to be a mighty fine day when the RNS comes through to confirm the above!

Scratch that, looks like it was an error as it got corrected

Appreciate it’s all “baked in” anyway, but I’d imagine that was a sell based on how the price dropped this morning.

Either way, it’s in and the general trades today were very much on the buy side so expect an uplift soon. The results looked strong to me, was surprised to see it drop back to level.

I think we were trading over £1 back in 2015, too.

Won’t be long til we’re back into 3 figures again!

Well, Zak says he’s looking at 0.02p if this closes above 0.008p today.

Massive volume today. Only 4 other days in the last year with higher volume.....

...And it’s only 9:45am.

Follow the money