Member Info for caml

Anyone expecting anything fundamental in the end of year update? They've had another 3 months since the September update and they were "looking forward to updating shareholders towards the end of 2020."
Loads of other deals have been done in RoC and elsewhere. If we had genuine interest, then COVID can not be used as an excuse. IMO.

Good evening extrader,
I have a few friends in RoC and a very good friend who worked for Egis in the past. I get a very good local understanding from them and they always say everything gets announced at least 5 times before ever getting done. For example, the port at Pointe Indienne has been announced, funding signed and there were even pictures of boots on ground. Then as soon as the cameras disappeared, so did the workforce. The locals are very cynical and used to it.
Zanaga's iron ore has had a long history of false starts, failed promises and huge potential. I don't know why, it just feels different this time and I think the govt are keen (desperate) to get the royalty and tax revenue.

Not much different here mind, huge funding increases or hospitals are always repeated endlessly!

All IMO

We have seen a lot of deals being struck in RoC in the past 6 weeks and a lot of activity within the mining sector too. Could this have anything to do with an impending Presidential election which has to be held Q1 2021? I'm sure the current regime would like to show progress on a number of fronts and wouldn't progress on Zanaga be a huge bonus? The impact of a fully functioning mine would be transformational for the country's GDP. And we know they want to diversify away from o&g.
GLA and really hope we get a useful update sometime soon.

If only ZIOC had given us some EPP figures in 2018, when promised, or in 2019 or 2020. If the EPP was viable then and we could have produced 3MTPA then that would now equate to an annual margin worth more than our MCAP. And we'd be producing now and our share price would be 5 or 6 times where it is. We were led to believe the EPP was minimal CAPEX and very short timescale to get up and running, so now must be the time.
But the company chose not to provide the figures and chose not to go for the EPP, choosing instead kick the can into 2021.

Lots of news coming out of RoC. KP2 told to get on with it, Sundance told they've lost the license. Chinese 'have' 40mtpa iron ore in RoC now which would be more than enough for the new steel mill in P-N. Given that the Chinese company are P-N based, this would make sense, although I would think there is a real logistical challenge getting the ore to port.
Plenty of deals being done, plenty of travel (Italian delegation last month discussing steel mill for example).
Lots of positives though, clearly the govt are trying to get projects moving and this can only be good for all mining projects. Getting the equipment and technical know-how, the supply chain, the customs etc in the country would all benefit us.
Let's hope Zanaga hasn't missed the boat. Let's hope they give us an update and if there is no substance then they simply go back into mothball status - if you can't sell an iron-ore project in the current climate, you should step aside and let someone else do it.
All IMO.

Well, we are more than 6 years into our 25 year license DrR so it's now or never. With a 5 year build (optimistic) that would only leave 13 and a bit years to get a return. Yes, the license can be extended by 15 years, but RoC may decide not to (right now, why would they?). This means that investors have huge risks. I would want license extension up front.
Alternatively, the prospective parties could be looking at it and thinking that the whole project is worthless in a few years time, sit back and wait it out. I reckon the tipping point is about 3 years away.
In 2014 when the license was granted and the decrees were passed, the project was due to be up and running by 2020. So far, we have not generated 1 franc of revenue and I know for sure that the RoC govt are not happy about this.
So all those who say we have time, we don't.

The other way of looking at this is if Jumelles didn't get a letter then RoC govt must be happy with progress?

Yes, I get carried away thinking something must be happening. But then why 'advertise' ourselves if we are deep in m&a discussions?
Doesn't make any sense to me.

Give the management shares, they've put out a tweet. What value we get.
Quite clear nothing going on IMO...

In the past few years (2014 > 2018) there have been some stories suggesting RoC wanted Rio Tinto to have the license.

If only Stok. If they gave a damn about shareholders they would have a management incentive linked to share performance, not whether they have stayed in a job.

Or the Aussies could buy Zanaga to secure the supply...

Indeed, strange trading today.
I too believe something is up. I was alarmed by Seritza sale earlier this year but it was explained as NCCL / other interest. There is (was) a lot of synergie between the two and it seems that one is progressing. I really hope ZIOC does too and finally AT can say he's delivered shareholder value with a straight face.

Hi extrader,
Ncondezi didn't spend £350m on studies so no wonder CMEC want to ensure the coal is there.

We are also at a much earlier stage. Maybe we are approaching a Heads of Terms which will then move onto due diligence and site visits. They're not going to let x just turn up and drill.

Best,
caml

I'm not sure this necessarily an issue Sidney. In the last video presentation, if I remember correctly, AT said that the parties who have shown an interest have been in dialog since 2014. They know everything about the project and are just needing some up to date costings and revisions.

Something is going on - bit of housekeeping before an announcement? Hopefully someone much more knowledgeable can explain.

Not related but not entirely unrelated is news that the Chinese have agreed to construct a new refinery in P-N.
On the negative side, this shows the Chinese are indeed active there and doing deals. Travel not an issue.
On the plus side, the Minister for SEZ was there. Construction due to start in 2023. Imagine if they were to announce a steel mill soon?
https://www.vox.cg/2020/11/le-congo-et-la-chine-en-accord-pour-construire-une-raffinerie-a-pointe-noire/

I did see some news the other day talking about FOCAC. Remember the FOCAC in China which got us to 25p? I think AT even tweeted from there.
Maybe FOCAC 21 will take place and top of the bill will be co-operation and investment into RoC?

Hi Extrader,
maybe ask if the re-costing exercise is required before discussing 'any potential transaction' further? If it is then we know nothing will happen until this is completed 'in the coming months' and we can all sell up and try to recover losses elsewhere.

Good evening extrader,
Andrew also said that they were speaking to the same people that they were talking to back in 2014. If I remember correctly, there was some interest from China, Japan and Singapore. I personally believe FSG are interested as well as a Middle Eastern interest. I'd have thought that any serious company would carry out their own re-costing exercise as they will set their own targets and objectives.
I also remember that part of the COIDIC announcement last year was that a route to finance would be provided by the Chinese. It makes sense that they will require an updated estimate before offering a deal. So, for me, COIDIC will discuss finance options in Q2 and potential alternative bidders have until then to get themselves ahead of this.
Thoughts?
All IMO and quite possibly a figment of my imagination ...