The waiting game5 Jun 2025 12:00
Thanks Schemiel for posting the numbers for the value of the average US shale acreage. I believe where we are at in the development of the Beetaloo is still early days BUT, the SSH1 well has definitely garnered some big attention as to how commercial the area is. The flow rates which are set to be coming shortly should confirm what we already suspect, and that is that the Beetaloo has enormous potential for majors or super majors. The payback as I understand it is 19 months on a pro forma basis, which is good. If Riddle can get the costs of each well down from $28 million to $16 million as he has stated is possible is huge for increasing the IRR, on each well and if this should happen will be a major attraction for investment by the institutional types. and acquirers in the future. POQ has the ability now to sit back and let the scene unfold. While some do not think that the flow rates will move things along much I disagree as this will be what the eyes in the data room want to see. In other words this will be a catalyst to move the would be buyers off the fence and into action. While TBN is only looking to farm down some 406,000 acres, a major or a super major like an Exxon will more than just a small position, which then should lead them to have a serious look at Falcon's position. My bet for a takeover of Falcon is more of an Asian partner as these folks look at things from a much longer perspective. They tend to look out over the next 25 plus years etc.