RE: Cambay22 Sep 2021 12:06
There's a few ways to skin an old cat
From wood McKenzie includes mature fileds how to extract value
1. New plays in new basins
These frontiers are at the higher risk end of the exploration spectrum. There is likely no infrastructure and not much of a supporting service sector. Prospects need to be chosen with extreme care – big enough to realise economies of scale and able to be developed and brought on stream speedily, whether a discovery is oil or gas. Fiscal terms and domestic political support can also be very important.
The first big success in a new basin can trigger a burst of follow-on drilling that quickly reveals greater potential. Some of the best basins proved since 2014 have already raced past 5 billion boe – Guyana (ExxonMobil), Egypt (Eni), Cyprus (Eni/Total) and Senegal/Mauritania (Cairn and Kosmos/BP) are great examples. Each are deepwater plays and share that golden characteristic of high value barrels – very high-quality reservoirs.
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2. New plays in old basins
A fresh approach can breathe new life into a flattening creaming curve. It may be fresh interpretation of the data, the application of new technology, such as better seismic, or an operator with a higher risk appetite. Success can rejuvenate a mature basin, and retain explorers tempted to move to pastures new.
Such plays rarely match the scale of the big new basins, though they can add a few billion boe. The emerging Norphlet sandstone in the US Gulf of Mexico is a good example. The Appomattox (2009), Vicksburg (2013) and Ballymore (Chevron/Total in 2017) discoveries, plus five smaller finds, together hold close to 2 billion boe (mostly oil) in an exceptional Jurassic reservoir. The combined NPV10 is over US$15 billion. Another is the Nanushuk play in Alaska where, since 2013, ConocoPhillips, Armstrong and Repsol have reinvigorated onshore exploration on the North Slope, finding close to 2 billion boe in five discoveries, with an NPV10 of at least US$5 billion. Total’s Brulpadda discovery in South Africa’s Outeniqua Basin, announced today, could be the next great example.
3. Old plays in old basins
CNOOC Ltd’s Glengorm discovery in the Central North Sea last month sits in the very heart of a long-standing trend of HP/HT fields like Elgin/Franklin (found in 1985) and Culzean (2008). At 250 million boe, it’s the UK’s biggest find since Culzean, and 25 times the size of the average UK find in recent years. We estimate Glengorm’s NPV10 could be US$0.8 billion. Smaller discoveries in mature plays can be high-value barrels easily plumbed into nearby field facilities.
How has Glengorm, mapped decades ago, lain undrilled for so long? Again, the answer is likely better prospect evaluation stemming from advances in technology, including seismic definition. Previous licence holders relinquished th
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