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That iea report was a hammer blow. 3 billion barrels in reserve that will take some shifting. its interesting the oil majors are deploying the same lunatic attitude of the world mining giants by thinking that pumping at record levels will keep up their market share.all this does is create a glut and drive prices down even more.

eegbvi i think 8p will be the bottom and if we had a crystal ball then we might be looking at the biggest bargain of all time, but as a shrewd investor said to me the other day the bottom of any share is 0p.when you look at the rate these oil and mining shares are haemorraging value it makes you wonder if oil does drop into 30's what price they would be.ive always been a believer in fogl but i'm just starting to think where the value to us share holders is going to come from in this low oil price enviroment.in my opinion after the next free carry drill fogl should hold fire on any further drilling and see what we have got in terms of oil and wait for a future oil price rise before any future action.

We are going to see 8p on this share soon i rekon as the price of oil is crashing.should see oil in the 30's by year end.we are going to have to batten down the hatches here for a bit.in my opinion this oil and mining slump is only just starting so we are going to have to hold in here for a very long term recovery.so much for the shale oilers going bust and all the m and a activity people said will happen.thats all a dream it will not happen.

i have to agree mate 5 months stuck on this so called duster.i wonder if fogl regret partnering with noble it reminds me of the tony blair poodle relationship with george bush. its noble that wears the trousers thats for sure

Parsley due to low interest rates and qe with shares rising the last 7 years even a idiot who had blindly invested in shares and funds would have made money.from this point now on with markets now dropping you will see how good some of these fund managers now are.

What folk should realise here is we are dealing with the crazy world of aim shares.with aim shares you invest your money and then its locked i.the share price usually then falls and the mm dealing spreads are so high anything upto 50% that people then can not sell out with out getting big loses.also any rns's released by a company will tell you nothing but dribble and no hard facts and will always leave you wondering.also then add on the fact that you will then get a rights issue chucked in at some point.example lonmin the other day.or if you are a little bit lucky you might get a share placement that will dillute your shares.the facts are there are better and safer ftse 250 companys with a lot better growth potential then aim stocks.in the end aim companys will run out of mug investors to keep them afloat.

what we are seeing happen with the share price is classic aim manipulation, this will keep dropping to around 8p, that will happen to scare the weak into selling, before the share price slowly creeps back up.i have seen this happen 100 times before on aim. you can understand everyones frustration as the share price was 37p when the er rig was on its way to spud the first well, and to see it crash to 10p does take some working out i would agree.remember though that these are only paper loses, no ones lost untill they sell their shares.the trouble is these days is that most people invest for the short term and want instant returns, and add that to the fact that a lot of these aim companys are always hungry for peoples cash and are very economical with the truth regarding any rns's then you have a potent cocktail for massive moves down in the share prices when any bad news or no news is released.its not fogls fault the share price is where it is, but my feeling is that fogl got over ambitious heading to the unknown south to drill when they had two proven oil finds in the north, and near to where sealion is.being a tiny exploration company and not flush with millions of pounds fogl have had a expensive dinner with the more wealthier noble and came unstuck.hindsight is a wonderfull thing but i rekon fogl are now regretting heading south when they could have stayed with pmo and rkh in the north. as for any share placement i can not see that happening as fogl will wait and see what they have with issy and zeb before coming out with the begging bowl like most aim companys do.the share price will correct itself in time but it will be along road ahead, thats why i wish some folk on here that were coming out with crazy share price predictions in the past would rain their views in a bit, as people take the rubbish spoken like £1 share prediction seriously then they invest their doe on this stupid talk and end up taking a hit. in my opinion if we had struck oil at humpy then this share price would never had jumped over 30p as good news does not make aim shares always jump in a big way, but bad news will always make them drop 50%. this will come good folks just sit tight and do not stress.

The sp will drift back up before long so dont worry folks this happens all the time with aim shares.what i would say is everyone should take a long hard look at any company before they invest in aim shares because too many people jump in with out doing any research and they are a lot of aim companys that are upto their eyeballs in debt and will swallow your hard earned quicker then you can imagine.fogl too me is a fairly well run company that has just started their drilling campaign in the middle of one of the worst oil slumps ever, its just bad timing and the share price is reflecting that at the mo.just put these shares in the bottom draw and wait too xmas for some good news hopefully

babyroo will you chill out and stop moaning.there is probably one hundred and one reasons why the er has not got moving yet, not every thing in life is a conspiracy theory, you have been watching too many x files.as for fair value of the share price i think the current price is fair value and thats coming from me who is down 55% i brought in at 25p.i could not give a monkeys if the share price goes down to 8p because the facts are buying shares is a longterm investment and it might take 5 years to get the full benefit of buying onto fogl.too many people expect to buy shares and expect them to rocket in a week and when they dont they blame every tom dick and harry.the reason fogl shares are at 12p is the market has no concrete info to put a proper value on fogl.put yourselfs in the mm's shoe's, last thursday everyone who's bottle went cashed their fogl shares in at probably big losses, the mm's are suddenly flooded with all these shares so they are hardly going to be offering you a good price if you want to sell yours.now the mm's probably have a large overhang of these shares they have got to sell before the price goes up again.this is the risk you take when you buy aim shares then can and do drop 50% on bad news, when you buy shares in bigger companys like shell you have plenty of chance to get out at a fair price on bad news, as big companys shares do not usually drop 50% on a duster.

when you buy shares in a company and that company makes a profit year on year then in theory the share price goes up.fogl have at the moment not done this, hence this is why their share price is where it is.in years gone by companys with no profit and assets were given crazy valuations like in the dot com boom and some of the massive share values some of these oil exploration companys were valued at even though they had no proven oil finds.now in todays more realistic climate even proven oil in the ground is not worth what it once was in respects of a company like fogl's share price.the market now wants to see proven profit before its then reflected in a companys share price.sealion is a pipe dream at todays oil prices.what people have got to remember is fogl are the tail of the dog and we will be wagged by the dog which in our case will be noble and pmo who inturn themselves will be told what to do by a bigger dog if they are interested in our oil finds.the shareholders will then be fed whats left on the bone when this has happened

it might as well be a myth then phil as its not factered into current share price of fogl and the last time i looked pmo were over 2 billion in debt so not sure where the cash is going to come from to bring sealion into production in todays low oil price climate

babyroo you have not got a clue your the one talking rubbish.the facts are the way things stand fogl are a company with no concrete oil finds until cpr's become public knowledge.even when the cpr's eventually come to light fogl will then have to decide if they want to go into production to produce the oil, which is a total non starter as they would never have the funds to do that.that would then leave them with one other option and that is to sell their share, which will also result in further problems due to the fact that fogl are not sole owners of any finds so any sale would have to tie in with fogl's other current partners which is easier said then done.also add on the fact the current oil price climate where in my honest opinion no other company will be paying a premium for oil in the ground especially when you consider the fact the falklands is a high cost area to produce from. for your information i am invested here but unlike a few others here i do not live in a dream world where i think this oil slump will all be turned around in the next 6 months and everything will be rosy in the garden.also one thing i have learned from investing in aim shares is never to jump in too quick and invest, as the share prices of aim companys can fluctuate up and down rapidly due too poor market trading size, because of this there are always plenty of chances to buy into a aim company if you bide your time. anyone buying in now at 12p are getting a fair price and in my opinion and they have a very good chance of at least making 80% return on their money if the next two cpr's come back good.i remember reading once that 75% of aim companys never make a profit so folk should bare this in mind when investing in aim.we should also bare in mind that if fogl are not going to produce oil from their finds then at what value will current share holders get on their investment.by this i mean would fogl return any of the profit to their shareholders if they managed to sell their share of the oil.there is a lot of rampers on this bb and a lot of folk will beleave some of this rubbish that is wrote and invest their hard earned cash on this so called advice.i like to write a balanced view which gives a person the chance to weigh up the pro's and con's of a company.i have always said fogl will come good eventually, it just wont be as quick as people think.the same rampers on here that were claiming fogl would be £1 soon are probally the same people who's backsides have gone and sold their shares on the cheap at 12p due to thursday news.i like to invest in a company and not gamble

13p is fair value considering where we are due to lack of info regarding cpr's.eegbvi hit the nail on the head when he said fogl are holding cpr's back due to the fact that they will need to release some good news to help with future fund raising fogl will need.this will all happen after the next drill when it will be clearer what we have and how much will need to be raised.as with any aim company you can be as sure as night follow days that at some point the money runs out and the cash call comes.trouble for fogl is that the share price needs to be a fair bit higher for any future fund raising to work.i would say share price has at least got to be 40p for this to happen.i rekon all the future cpr's will probally be released in one hit followed by a fund raising rns.

noody interesting chat with the bp guy. there is no doubt oil will go up again its just a case of when, this low oil price enviroment at the moment ties in with low everything else like metals / foods / luxury goods and cheap credit etc. interesting that it makes you think it could all be a world government created thing to make the economy prosper and get people to keep spending which all governments want and need.at some point these cheap things will all have to go up as high inflation is needed because it erodes debt which the world has plenty of.as i said once before the best thing to cure low prices is low prices.once this massive downturn is over the oil companys left will be a lot more leaner and better companys then before the downturn.

yes hindsight is a wonderfull thing but i think it will be a very long time before anyone dips their toes back into drilling in the south falklands. noble had a well to drill in the north,and after zeb and issy finds they and fogl should have been encouraged enough to stay in the north in hindsight.if noble had drilled their well after issy and found a lot of oil then it would have pumped the hype and share price for the redrill near issy.the south with its deeper waters was always going to be difficult.

yes eegbvi would have to agree about the share overhang, the mm's must still have a lot of spare shares on their books after thursdays sell offs.the trouble is with aim shares is they are not very liquid and the markets size for the mm's to deal with is in reality pathetic hence the high spreads.as anyone knows who buys into aim shares the spreads can be massive and the share price drops on bad news can be at least 50% of companys share price.the mm's take a lot of stick but in all fairness they have a very hard task priceing aim shares, as one wrong move and they can be left with a lot of shares on their hands at high money.once the panic is over the share price will creep back up, but i can't emphasise enough how crucial good news on this next well is for fogl.anymore bad news will not do this share price any favours at all in regard to any fogl future fund raising needs. in hindsight after the first two well success's eegbvi would there have been any get out clause for fogl to have abandoned the humpy drill and stayed in the north of the falklands? it would have saved us a lot of money. thanks in advance

its alright everyone keep stating what oil in the ground is worth, but we must remember if price of oil does not pick up no one will be investing any money on infrastructure in a high cost area like the falklands to bring this oil to production.if you look at history, it will tell you that there are lots of good oil wells never brought into production due to low price of oil in the past.i fully expect premier oil to mothball sealion project if oil does not pick up soon.this next well drill for fogl is massive if we do not drill another gusher then this share price could tank to 5p.when people on this board was moaning about the fogl share price at 25p i did say we were lucky to be valued at that in todays low oil price era.

Looking forward to eegbvi putting a balanced view on all this and hearing his views

What has not helped share price today is the fact the rest of markets are down today.oil shares in particular are well down.it would take a brave man to average down on a aim share.the reason i am sceptical is the fact fogl will need more cash soon.the only concrete cpr we have is the concrete we have just filled that duster humpy with.

I thought 16p on a duster but not to surprised that its just over 12p. These are the facts fogl and partners have told us naff all regarding cpr of first two wells.add to the fact that the next well will be a redrill 5km from izy then that could well come up a duster too. We would then be left with the problem that zebdee might not have enough commercial oil to make it worth while. plus fogl are nearly skint and i can't see investors stumping up more hard earned in a rights issue.the whole drilling of humpback was a disaster and a total waste if money months and months of drilling for a duster.you can now see why we are valued at 12p and in my opinion we are lucky to be at that because we have nothing of any concrete value at the moment.