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Good, consistent buying in this cash rich, IP rich vaccine play today, but note the bid. It begrudgingly shifted up from 10.25 to 10.50, despite all the buying above 11 and the spread has moved out as a consequence. I don’t know why the market maker is so determined to anchor this stock here but you sense that a wee bit more buying pressure will force him/her to raise the bid, close the spread and then this stock will finally move a lot higher....it should be in the 20’s before we even begin to discuss fair value. £100mn of sales, £35mn of cash, a one-shot peanut vaccine, etc etc.
A good write-up on SNG in a comprehensive report...
https://arixbioscience.com/insights/how-close-are-we-to-a-covid-19-cure-a-biotech-vc-perspective
“SNG-001 (Synairgen). Synairgen’s inhaled formulation of interferon-beta-1a (IFN-1a), which unlike the other drugs above, would increase the immune system’s responsiveness. The evidence so far in asthma patients – where it has been tested for preventing asthma exacerbations from the common cold – is mixed, but in a more severe population, this mechanism could be powerful.“
looking at the trading on LSE, it looks like an institutional dealer was clumsy or made a mistake....his/her algos were selling constantly into the close and then someone sells over £1mn of stock in an uncrossed trade into the auction?...That means it's going to price horribly - and it did. Makes you wonder if it's Allianz and he/she is not caring about what price he/she gets because they're on their way out of the position completely....Likely to be a buying opportunity if anything. let's see tomorrow morn.
this Nature article caught my attention. AllergyTherapeutics has a state of the art vaccine manufacturing facilities at their secure production unit in Sussex - co-located with GSK. It also has plenty of cash, plenty of topline growth and plenty of vaccine/adjuvant expertise.
It's also got a share price which is remarkably cheap and which seems to be anchored to 10p. The market maker is determined to keep the bid at 10.25 come what may....
"If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?
Researchers warn production constraints and hoarding could limit SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supplies."
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01063-8
quick reply here. tricky to delist unless you can control more than 75% of the equity because you need shareholder approvals via an GM. It's also expensive....(although so is being listed...). share-ownership is fragmented here, if you look at the register....So, there are ways to go private and it may well be the right thing to do ultimately (private equity would love to put debt against the regular cashflows this business will generate once profitable). But it's not as simple, quick or cheap as you might think....
Lots of examples of UK listed Aim companies receiving small business loans to support their US operations today. I mention Tissue Regenix ($629,000) and Velocys ($709,000) as just two examples. Will be encouraging to hear that the New Hampshire operations at ITX are supported by similar loans. We know that the demand for product should be pretty good - my dishwasher is busier than ever, for e.g.
The directors and managers of this company have lots of skin in the game here. The CEO himself owns over 10%. There has been a relaxation of rules around pre-emption rights for shareholders because of the impact of the virus on funding for many companies. This would allow management to raise up to 20% of the existing share capital without having to formally go to an EGM to ask for shareholder approval.
My guess is that this will take place at ITX. The main reasons why I've liked this company are the commitment of the new board and management team, as demonstrated by their equity holdings; and the openness/enthusiasm/sector knowledge of the CEO (watch his video clips).
Then of course, there's the bio-ingredient theme. I think there's little doubt that post virus we are going to see an acceleration of bio ingredient replacement in the products we consume as part of a general focus on 'wellness' and health/sustainability. This stock plays perfectly to this theme. So, start to build a position soon because if the board fund short term working capital to get through this virus slump via a 20% raise then this stock is going to trade a lot higher, in my view.
WHY HASN’T THIS VACCINE MAKER RE-RATED?
I’m so lonely on this BB that I’ve resorted to copying and pasting my earlier posts...
‘There’s a lot of vaccine and adjuvant technology and know-how in this company- not to mention production capability at a site co-located with GSK....we’ve just got to be patient and wait for the market to start to value the technology, the circa £30mn cash and the circa £100mn annual revenue line - which continues to grow rapidly.’
Muggins makes a fair point. The link below outlines some of the challenges of detecting virus in waste water (note, we ‘only’ need to detect the RNA of a virus, we don’t need it to still be ‘alive’). The retrofit point is also really important, though.
If you have the well-established installed base with the flexibility to incorporate remote viral RNA detection in the future, then you have a business potentially worth billions. Look at our market cap. It’s clearly discounting nada in this area or others. Long term holders should focus on the demand for MWG monitoring product and consumables and let the likes of thermo fisher work on next gen solutions like viral rna detection. They will crack it. There’s too much money at stake for a solution not to be found. All we can hope for from GB and the team is an acute awareness of the needs for system design flexibility to incorporate detection breakthroughs when ( not if) they occur.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0043135418301039
Nice article in Sunday Times entailed “Scientists fight dirty to track virus through sewage”.
No mention of MWG but plays to an argument GB has been making for a while...
It can’t do the MWG investment case any harm ...
I think this is the only globally recognised small cap developer and manufacturer of vaccines and adjuvants not to have its share price double in the last few weeks.... it has £30mn-odd of cash, it generates a growing top line of circa £100mn p.a (8% growth last reported)...
Not sure why the company has not communicated its capabilities and their relevance, although this management team has always been hyper-focused and doesn’t seek attention....let’s hope they do contribute to the pandemic effort and let’s hope this woefully misspriced stock rises as a consequence....
FY results due any day and along with it some comment about current operating environment, outlook, etc...
There’s a lot of vaccine and adjuvant technology and know-how in this company- not to mention production capability at a site co-located with GSK....we’ve just got to be patient and wait for the market to start to value the technology, the circa £30mn cash and the circa £100mn annual revenue line - which continues to grow rapidly.
Tiny, irrelevant volume taking it lower....£7k of sells.
On the positive side, I don’t know about you guys but having a family holed-up at home has meant our dishwasher is working flat-out. I think the underlying demand picture from New Wave and others is strong. Whilst on the supply side, ITX have complete control over its production, and its feedstock/ raw material is always available... If any company can trade through this crisis, ITX can - if it can just find a couple of hundred grand to fund shorter term working cap.
The CEO inferred $2million of annual sales from the January New Wave RNS alone in one of his last Proactive interviews....And we all know the strength of structural demand across odour control, hair product, dishwash and into bio-plastic packaging.
It all adds up to a stock that has the potential to react incredibly quickly to any funding news. And let’s not forget that management owns a proper chunk of the equity. They have skin in the game. Buy.
The only ‘error’ is your inability to note that the reference to ‘funding through to 2021’ on Twitter is dated back to the summer last year and refers to the credit facility - currently suspended and therefore irrelevant. Nice try though.
The link below popped up in my Twitter feed this evening...there’s even a link in the article to the commercial agreement between ITX and Nouryon in natural hair products.
https://www.nouryon.com/news-and-events/features-overview/2020/leading-in-personal-care-products--naturally/
This company specialises in spotting and solving digital/broadband problems to improve digital experience for end users.
It’s directly relevant to our home working digital experience. It operates via global channel partners like Verizon and Vodafone. This will surely go from being a nice to have bolt-on service to a must have for any large organisation relying on a reliable customer and homeworker online experience.
Interesting to note the performance of ETX since Ali took over there....C4X and ETX have overlapping technologies (and already collaborate).
If the future is looking brighter for ETX, then it must also be brighter for C4X. Either that or ETX is just over-bought on Ali-hype....
The other angle here is scale: does Ali want to bolt the C4X platform on to his own? The more targets and the more tools could mean more license deals in less time - if he can coordinate it all.
Wonder if anyone will take advantage of this market dislocation to buy here today?
Given the huge success of the funding round last week and the implications that has for a stock with a sell side valuation over 300p, I didn’t think I’d get the chance. I genuinely thought/ think it should have gapped up to the 50-60 p range on the news.
Nice report from Hardman & Co today. It really is a compelling opportunity with lots of cash and a growing top line.
The report’s title is crushingly boring but the actual document itself makes a very strong case to accumulate here.
It’s hardly down today because there’s literally no one left to sell it. All current holders are there for the re-rate to come.