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Of course someone knows.. look at what MM has said about the LSE then look at this. Utter collapse out of fresh air, all good news or progress disregarded in an hourly candle. He will never accept the offer that will take it off this market so shareholders will never get anything close to value.
Look at the Bloomberg article this morning, its an opinion piece, nothing more. Certainly wouldn't warrant a 25% fresh air collapse - by giving various scenario analysis. Joke market to serve the few in the know at the expense of the many. Always has been, always will be.
He's accumulated 5% while we've still comfortably drifted to all time lows. That's enough firepower to have sent the shorts running but has clearly been achieved in a way to not disrupt the trajectory, which frankly to anyone looking to buy in let alone an Ashley type character, is beneficial.
Claire, I think today's price action is reinforcing of, as is always the case with Ashley, any takeover or controlling stake he acquires will come at the detriment of shareholders. I hope I am wrong, but suspect he will let shorters do their thing, as they have today hammering it into the red from such a positive open, so he can then pick up more of a stake at a progressively lower price.
Couldn't agree more. I'm hardly expecting him to engage with me, but I was careful not to come across as trolling, but more a concerned & beleaguered shareholder. The fact he made the point of deleting not one but two comments, says much about where his priorities lay unfortunately.
Camelot are adding to BOO & ASC. Desperately need something similar here, II investment of size, to at least stop the rot. Shocked the directors buys, given their size, achieved nothing in terms of arresting the slide.
8. He deletes instagram comments on his posts trying to acknowledge that perhaps the value he sees in his brands isnt shared by the market or external to the company entities. Whilst being careful not to troll, I was merely highlighting the complete and utter erosion of shareholder value he has/is presiding over, but also seems like open/frank debate is another thing he can't be honest about as he tries to keep up his social media persona of perma-success.
In the UK, its because we pander to them, run scared and facilitate them through brown envelopes in our press and rags. In the US, they get fought against and are far less successful. Short squeezes there are common place and it lets shorters know its a 2 way playing field. Here we can have a 9% short interest and not one of them will have a sleepness night since there is so little fight here. Not even countertrend rallies of substance to make them second guess their position.
Can't recall the exact date West (it will be there in RNS history), but being a holder at the time and from memory, I recall it being a roughly 50% premium to the last previous close. If we got that tomorrow, would we take it? Would the board? Would have to say personally givens how underwater I am it wouldn't be great for me, but equally I struggle to see in this climate & with all the macro & sector headwinds what the BOD are going to do that could yield a 50% uplift in any near to medium term. They've proven themselves quite content to preside over complete and utter SP destruction, and 6 hedge funds still see value in actively shorting us down from what I consider absurdly low levels. It would certainly be a welcome dilemma to have and a nice break from the monotonous weekly spiral lower. ATB
West, it was in Q2 (May). My bad, a error on my part, it was 170p that was offered - with many other suitors seemingly lurking at the time too. But still, what I would have given for that to be taken versus where that share is now.
John, agree re the sentiment towards MM. My concern is that seeing a premium of multiples in this macro environment remains really optimistic.
That THG bid even, at the time, represented just a circa 50% premium or so. It's just the more this is ground away by the daily shorting & drip declines, the less we can realistically expect a takeover to represent under the guise of a healthy premium, unless we ride out for the very long term in the next cycle. At £16, can we realistically see a prospective buyer offering 250% premium for a company about to potentially face a domestic recession, double digit & sticky inflation and that is being shorted incessantly by a number of hedge funds that have targeted this for being "overvalued" at these paltry levels. I'm a shareholder here so not looking to be the messenger of doom, but equally having been battered by all these retailers I've at least found a semblance of reality with where things are at.
Jon,
"Yeah, but the fact remains, while the share price is here, and offer of triple the MCAP is a fair bid.
As such the major holders and BoD need to justify why such an offer should be rejected."
I'd reference THG. Takeover offer of £1.80 flatly rejected by the BOD, current share price 49p. Shareholders like myself would have jumped to see that £1.80 taken given the current predicament.
The BoD believing the company is worth more than is being offered is one thing, but their capacity to deliver the actual shareholder value in the form of that higher market cap is most definitely another. As demonstrated by THG. IMO.
CT, that's just trading, right? In most cases, they'll sell / cover into weakness / resell the strength - spoofs like the Betaville rumour gave them all ample liquidity to load up heavily again. No doubt after the drops ever since, they'll be gently covering etc etc.
It's not really "making mugs of us all" though is it.. I mean the info is publicly there that this is being shorted heavily, and as ever market makers/news outlet facilitates these drops as these are concerted efforts. The FCA aren't going to get involved on small fish like this, unless they do at a broader level as you're starting to see in the US.
The issue is private investors perpetually trying to average down, pick a bottom etc and then berate anything bar their own decisions when its keeps dropping. It's in a severe downtrend, as it has been for hundreds of pence, with it publicly known its being shorted by major institutions. If investors fight that and lose money, surely some of the blame lay with them. I've lost money here doing exactly the above, and I can't blame anyone bar myself.
The whole point is that RBC has no skin in the game, and are therefore independent. There is no motive for them to write anything other than an objective appraisal, as may not be the case for anyone financially intertwined with the company.
Essentially RBC have identified an opportunity with vast upside, prudently targeting £5, though they cover the below scenarios under best/worse case scenarios. 20p drawndown for 480p upside. I wouldn't fancy being short here on that skewed risk/reward- no wonder they are closing.
"
Downside scenario
In this scenario, we assume Group revenue growth and margin in FY22 is below market expectations and that the market attributes negative value to Ingenuity in the event that SoftBank walks away from its deal with THG. This would imply
a fair value per share of 100p.
Upside scenario
In this scenario, we assume a more positive growth outlook and margin performance for the THG Beauty and Nutrition
segments, raising their respective valuations. This would imply a fair value per share of 600p.
"
To follow on the good research already posted here today. Here is some of the key extracts from the £5 RBC note (apologies if already posted, haven't checked the last 24 hours on the board).
"
Zero is the wrong price for Ingenuity. We sympathise with the challenge in valuing THG Ingenuity — indeed, it is what previously kept us on the sidelines. However, its momentum in FY21 — we believe its site orderbook more than doubled — and improved disclosure have been overlooked. We have carried out a detailed bottom-up analysis, underpinned by what
the business has actually achieved to date and as a result, have greater confidence in our valuation. We project that Ingenuity Commerce could increase tenfold to £0.5bn of revenue in 5 years, which at an EBITDA margin of c.60%, drives our DCF valuation for the segment of £4.4bn. Yet, the market is attributing no value at all.
We foresee a number of catalysts that could drive the shares in 2022:
1. SoftBank: will they or won't they? In our view, Softbank's investment in THG (6.6% stake), its recent board appointment (in October) and strategic partnership with THG Ingenuity, suggest that SoftBank will not walk away from its deal with THG, which management is expecting to close in H1. A renegotiation of terms is more plausible, but as we believe it would not
be merited by either the commercial or financial performance of Ingenuity (but rather the THG share price), this would undermine its own investment in THG and its partnership, in our view. In any case, based on our valuation, nothing is discounted in the share price for Ingenuity.
2. Consensus revenue upgrades for Ingenuity Commerce, which should support a re-rating of the shares, particularly as the market attributes no value to the segment. Our FY22-24 forecasts for Ingenuity Commerce are 5-10% above consensus. Management's guidance does not take into account any new client wins this year, which we view as conservative.
3. Independent Chair appointment. The Group has taken notable steps to improve its governance structure: the removal of CEO Matthew Moulding's Special Share rights, release of a share pledge as collateral for a loan and a commitment to appoint a new independent Chair to split Moulding's role as CEO and Chairman.
4. Main Market Premium listing in 2022, once the appropriate conditions are fulfilled. We believe this is more likely a 2H event.
Incompetent board or everything going to plan? What do you truly believe..
A lower share price will allow Moulding to take this off market for peanuts compared to what it was IPO'd at.. not a bad trade don't you think? He's already publicly lambasted being listed in the UK and has said he would take it off the market if the price fell enough. this is all on public record if someone actually did the research.
So what makes you think this is "incompetence", when the reality is this all very convenient. No wonder there's radio silence, no director buys etc.
Yes, buys/sells equal and share price free falling. It is a SETS stock so price goes in the direction those making this market want, not the fair direction. All part of the orchestration here to pay off the shorters, get Moulding off this market at the cheapest price possible.
This is going private, and cheaply. Surely everyone can piece together that share going down isn't "diabolical" or the sort to the majority orchestrating the collapse in the share price. Look at the order book - buy, buy, buy and it doesn't move, couple of sells and it drops and the ask thickens. Classic SETS where the MMs are complicit in the drop. Look at the press - perennially negative, no positivity in anything that the company does since the SI started to build. It's a total setup job on the retail investor, and Moulding won't step in to do anything to address it.. he's gone on record saying if it gets cheap enough he goes back private. So a total winner for him too since it will go back private for a total song.