Member Info for Bydna

Always expected the auto numbers to be some way off the 750k stated by Martin Ive for cash flow break even. The same quarter in previous years generally saw a drop off so getting to 750k always seemed unlikely. Guardian numbers taken in isolation are decent enough but again some way off the target of 6k for break-even. Interested to hear an explanation on how they've achieved the cash flow break even given these numbers. Suspect the explanation is around the contracts with minimum volumes.

Also interested to note that McClone in today's RNS states an expectation to achieve 'positive adjusted EBITDA'. This is a slightly different measure to 'cash flow break even run rate' that they've always stated previously. A subtle shift in the goalpost maybe? Hopefully more detail next week.

Next year looks positive but looks to me that the breakeven will ultimately push to the following quarter. Just can’t see auto numbers hitting the target. The last 2 years for the Oct-Dec quarter has seen a drop off so think numbers will fall short but the future is looking positive especially if they can win a couple of the rfqs referred to by McGlone in the proactive interview and there more significant guardian orders. Still çant understand why there are barely any sales in Europe given the GSR coming in next July.

The original rns announcing the award with VW does say there is significant upside potential so it does look like this might be the case:

'This program covers an expansive number of vehicle models with mass production scheduled from early 2024 and an initial lifetime value of A$125 million. While representing the largest awarded DMS program to date, there also remains significant upside potential based on OEM expansion plans.'

Would have been nice for SEE to reiterate this in todays announcement. Based on todays exchange A$125 million is around $81 million US. On a very rough calculation if you take US$10 as the price per unit once 8.1 million cars are on the road with the Magna mirror then anymore after that should be upside.

I’m wondering if contracts with existing oems will just be expanded to more models without need for rfqs.

Pretty sure PMG said in one of those Proactive interviews that the rfqs they were responding to were all to start from at least 2027 intimating that oems had already sourced for start of the regs next year. Seems hard to believe given lack of big awards over last year.

Hopefully Fed H are fully out now given the volume. Maybe a good time for a small top up. About time some sort of contract was announced.

I’m pretty sure PMG stated at the recent town hall that currently the manufacturer of gen3 can supply 6000 units per quarter with potential to fairly easily ramp up to 9000. This means currently maximum they can supply annually is 36k units. Isbs question about who can supply all those vans and trucks for the Eu from next July is a valid one as currently See can only supply a fraction. I’m hoping the tie up with Mitsubishi can provide a solution to handle much larger orders but that will take time and July 26 is not that far off now.

Wow that’s a terrible update. Automotive numbers massively down, guardian g3 production delays, pathetic sales, cash break even pushed back. Fear the market will hammer this. McGlone should go.

Now that the results are out of the way i assume Directors are now free to buy shares. Be interested to see if any do at these low prices. Certainly could allay some fears about a raise via a placing which in my view is pretty unlikely. The worry is the current malaise in the car industry and this latest ruling on car finance is another negative headwind to add into the mix potentially affecting uk car sales. A lowball takeover from someone like Magna seems increasingly likely to me especially if cash becomes an issue.

Amazed that Volvo have signed an extension with them given the issues with the EX90 which is assumed to be SmartEye.

I wonder if Caterpillar took all the remaining Gen 2 stock as part of that recent deal.

A decent but not spectacular set of automotive numbers. Thought a full 3 months of VW production could have pushed the numbers a bit higher but with 7 programs the mix could have dropped with others. Hoping the trend from last year where Q3 and Q4 numbers showed a smaller %increase/reduction does not play out this year.

It is a slight worry that the smart eye dms is so bad it causes a general anti-dms bias and calls for mandatory camera dms to be scrapped/delayed. Hopefully a clear distinction can be made to highlight the good and the bad and DMS as a whole isn’t tarnished negatively. Unfortunately a good dms is like the best referees. You don’t notice they are there.

It is a slight worry that the smart eye dms is so bad it causes a general anti-dms bias and calls for mandatory camera dms to be scrapped/delayed. Hopefully a clear distinction can be made to highlight the good and the bad and DMS as a whole isn’t tarnished negatively. Unfortunately a good dms is like the best referees. You don’t notice they are there.

I assume that switching off the DMS won’t be an option in 2 years time once the camera DMS becomes mandatory in Europe. I hope SEE are ramming this point home in discussions and rfqs with oems that cheap alternates are cheap for a reason.

I think Glandore is right on this. In the proactive interview around 5m 26 PMG clearly states that the royalties have been brought forward as part of the $16.5M deal. This isnt mentioned in the RNS. To add context this is from the 2015 RNS when KK was CEO where they got US$17.5M PLUS royalties so this new deal is inferior in terms of cash.

'Caterpillar will pay Seeing Machines US$17.5M over four years as well as royalty fees for DSS hardware, software licensing, monitoring and analytics services.'

This seems to be the price for asking for the cash up front which is better than having to raise cash via a placing.

A fair write up that by safestocks. SEE not for the first time killing some good news by slipping in some bad at same time with a very poorly written explanation of the reasons for slow gen 3 take up. Almost deliberately attempting to suppress the share price it feels. I fear that the next KPIs (hopefully very good) will be bundled in with the August trading update(not so good) so again killing any positive momentum.

To me the rns suggests that the cash from CAT will be included if they are able to. See the line 'Subject to final revenue recognition' in the extract below:

'As the end of the current Financial Year approaches, the Board of Seeing Machines anticipates that the Company will close the FY2024 period at or ahead of market expectations for Revenue and Cash. Subject to final revenue recognition associated with the Revised Agreement with Caterpillar and the final outcome on Automotive royalties for Q4 2024 it is expected that Cash EBITDA will be lower than market expectations. '

To me theyve clearly recognised there will be a big shortfall in earning expectations and are trying to use this deal with CAT as a way of bridging the shortfall hence releasing this rns days before the end of FY24. On the face of it the license deal is great news but its soured somewhat by an underperforming year. The uptake of Guardian is pitifully slow still it seems even with the launch of Gen3. The GSR rules coming into force in July this year are not realising as much sales as they hoped i suspect. Only in 2026 when camera-based DMS is mandated is when you'd think that sales should really start to take off. But by then their could also be more competitors in the space. Great tech but pretty poor management. I'm just hoping someone will buy them out soon.

In an update last October they said that the permit for the HMS is anticipated in Q1 and the plant would start operating immediately. I just hope this timeline proves to be accurate and then the share price will surely recover significantly. But i have my doubts whether this timeline will be met. We will see in the next month.

Ive been trying to work exactly what the rules are that are due to come in on 7th July this year in Europe referred to in the recent G3 launch RNS and why SM hasnt seemed to benefit much from this if at all. From what i can gather it seems all new cars, vans, trucks, buses have to have some sort of driver drowsiness and detection in place by July. But i'm assuming the reason why SM hasnt gained much traction with this especially in trucks is that the system doesnt need to be camera-based so most OEMs will just go for a rudimentary coffee cup type hands off wheel detection and lane keeping sensors in order to comply. I do think that SM have been too slow to get G3 ready to capitalise on the rule change this year. But in 2026 the rules expand to have some sort of 'Advanced Driver Distraction warning' system which is where camera-based DMS systems come in so July 2026 is really the key rule change that should benefit SM massively and contracts for then have to be awarded very soon. It should be an open goal so surely PMG and the team cant miss the opportunity in front of them.

Think most are buys as one of those at 0.54 is my small top up. Now that AMS are fully onboard i'd like to think that news will finally start to flow.