RE: Looking for22 Sep 2023 17:24
On gold, I'm not surprised it's held up despite the rate rises.
If we consider that gold is a hedge against inflation then it's the spread between the fed rate and actual inflation rate we need to look at. Back when rates where sub 1% inflation was circa 3-4% then with the fed rate rising from 1 to 5% whilst inflation running at nearer 10% The loss on your risk free is now greater than it was before they started raising rates.
What is supportive of gold from here is the fact that inflation is generally costs related, so as the dollar falls in value on the back of lower global trade, the cost pressures for the US climb exponentially.
Americans who have been complaining about inflation over the last 2 years haven't seen anything yet. Cheaper dollar means cheaper prices for everyone else. Would not be surprised if we see a 1.75 euro and a 2 dollar sterling come the peak of this cycle.
All time highs in gold will make trades like HUM a once in a generational opportunity.
FRES, CEY, HUM and SHG for me, which imo are also currently some of the UK's cheapest equities.