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Stas20 it was actually me giving that question, its listed under AER transfers over at BOEreports.com.
Ive checked some of the wells up and they seem to be in the ”central alberta” map in I3 presentation. So probably a remnant of the old deal, some of those wells were 30-40 years old also :D
Yes of course I will invest according to my opinion and not what someone else tells me. And my take is that calling out 100% of 2023 FCF should be returned to shareholders is not ”their fair share” but thats your, and others, belief
Anyhow we both see the value of I3, lets leave it at that.
The green movement has shot itself in the head by trying to lower demand by killing supply. And on top of it rushing it.
People will prioritize food on the table today over the climate change any day.
The narrative today is that ”we have been mistreated in the past, now it’s our turn to get payback”
Effectively ruining the economy for a lot of people (yes I know it is because of politic decisions originally but us enforcing it just makes us an open target for excessive taxation, the money would leave the market in the form of dividends or buybacks anyway. That is an open goal for the governments to tap into that money well somehow.)
Share buybacks signal investors want out but there is noone out there to buy their shares.
We already see governments fall due to the high energy prices, oil will have a last prime time and that is not today but in a couple of years. That is my personal belief and I invest accordingly
In short I prefer dividends over buybacks since I get the control of what to do with the returns I get rather than being forcefully reinvested in the same company.
But what I am heavily against is the narrative. It signals not even the oil industry is comfortable enough to expand their businesses and are rushing to buy themselves out of the market?
I am bullish oil, not this year or the next but rather the next 5-10 years. If we have well capex paid back in a couple of months that is literally throwing out cash consistently for a long time. Why not maximize expansion today to reap the benefits tomorrow
Meanwhile Eric Nuttall gang is underinvesting cementing the issue for longer. I’d rather Ask Tony why he is invested in I3 when he is so fond of the buyback narrative.
So the action of buybacks I understand the logics behind it but it’s just not my choice for what I want an oil company to do in this environment.
And if they have excess money at the end of the year and decide to do share buybacks instead of special dividends I wouldn’t care . Signalling it is because they are limited in their expansion for other reasons than that they just don’t want to expand
Special dividend around christmas would be awesome.
Not sure about your reading skills, but I am bashing the process of using buybacks to rub it into the faces of people not benefitting from them, lots of companies also release more performance shares than they are buying back making it just another type of salary.
In the end Nuttalls actions are beneficial for me (makes my narrative even more bullish due to lack of supply will be there for longer as not even the industry is expanding as they should.)
I’m just calling out the fact that we are giving politicians right that we are the villains we are portrait as. Dunno where that places me in your world.
But this should be about I3 so I will stop here.
In the end I am here right? In a company that does expand their production and doing what I expect a capitalist environment to do when prices are high.
But as you say, who am I, not the one gloating publicly how much money that could be spent on expansion that is now gone, not even in the investor pockets as dividends but literally gone.
And those companies have dived with the rest of us.
It has absolutely nothing to do with the value of buybacks or the logics behind it.
It comes down to, investment is needed, people struggle due to high energy prices and the companies able to help rectify this are now bragging publicly how much money they are not using for expansion but using on fictional burning of paper.
In the end giving politicians the rights that the oil industry is those evil guys they are depicted as!
Ffs, be humble when things go your way.
Umm those comments are exactly what I am against.
We all know investment is needed and in that time the people working in the industry are burning dollars in buying paper to throw in the toilet.
And on top of it they brag about it. Eric Nutall is a douche
1500 BOPD oil at a netback around 80 dollars: 44 MUSD yearly
500 BOEPD gas roughly 18 dollars netback (assuming costs will go lower) : 3,7 MUSD yearly
That is not accounting for any other expansion. Companies in african war zones have higher P/E ratios than this.
I guess we are only waiting for a confirmation. Once the dollars come poppin in we roll.
Its kind of crazy that we:
1. Had an insider selling internally at a discount 5% of the company at 27p, after that we get a lid at 28,5p for several weeks.
2. Options converted and BODs buying at 0,435 CAD also about 5% of the company.
3. Suprisingly these actions did nothing in regards to support to the downside this time.
I have a hard time to believe all these internal transactions doesn’t show us the way. 28p should be the bottom, going below is a sale, at least thats what the insiders tell us.
So I have happily filled up as well :) this really is my savings account now
Looking into the hedging in the annual report it seems 1000 BOPD of oil are under a ”put option” contract for 2022.
If I understand correctly they are more expensive to buy but gives you the option to not use it in a higher price environment?
In the table of profit change depending on price you can see this too, when price move up $5 we gain more than when it drops $5 dollar in the chart