CDN9 Dec 2009 20:36
80p target. Strong hold in my book.
From III
The revision to our model has increased the Cook’s NPV by 50% to £150m, or 72p per share. Including the Minyango deposit at a valuation of £53m, based on a heavily discounted 30c per tonne of resource, and net debt of £10m, generates a total valuation of £193m, or 92p. This places Caledon on a NPV multiple of 0.4x, a 50% discount against peers which are currently trading on average of 0.8x NPV. On comparable EV/resource metric, the company’s 468mt in resources are currently trading at $0.32/t versus the sector average of $1/t and the historical Australian Coal transaction value of above $2/t. Caledon is not alone facing cost pressures from a strong Australian dollar, but with the company returning to a path of production growth and with higher sale prices, we would expect these discounts to start to be eroded into 2010. We maintain our target price of 80p.