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interesting analysis, good long term investment and price now moving: http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/hogg-robinson-group34/full
I find it amazing that there are still so many people in here discussing this non-entity. There are even some believing they might get their money back. This company is like the parrot in Monty Python, it is well and truly dead! It is run by a man who is extremely busy with loads of other much bigger and more important projects. There are no assets , no production , no income and the only activity they are engaged in are various lawsuits which are emptying the last remaining embers of cash. Why anyone should believe that this would be the company that could rise from the ashes even if it has an idea or an investment is well beyond me and at this stage with information we have in front of us I don't see any light at the end of a tunnel. I only see a brick wall. The longer you hold on to any hope here, the longer it will take you to move on and recoup the losses on some of the many opportunities the markets are offering these days. Good luck to you all and good riddance to this disaster of a company, lot of lessons should be learned from the lies, embezzling, manipulation and fraud that took place at Sefton over many years and by virtually all management!
so as I predicted yesterday the results were good, maybe even better than that. Profits up with further savings to come into effect this year, dividends up again and now quite substantial. 2 things stood out for me : 1) the profits for Fraedom up 75%, this gives a second string to play on so not all is dependent on the TMC services 2) the debt is down substantially and now below the target set a few years ago. They are now starting to consider how they can share more cash with the shareholders The SP doesn't move fast on this one but this is one of the best, most steady performers and with the dividends and increases in SP has served as one of the best performers in my portfolio since 2009. Always hoping for one of the two companies owning over 20% of the company to launch a takeover bod which will finally get the price up above 100 but in the meantime in here for the long run. Hope to see some reaction over the next few days with first target 80, With EBITDA as it stands and the price that other TMCs have sold for in the UK this SP should be much higher!
been quiet here for a few months and we have seen a steady climb back to 70 after seen a totally unexplained drop. After last years problems and profit warning there has been no such issues this year so would be very surprised if results coming out tomorrow are not at least line with expectations, raising dividends and good forecast for the future. I really hope and believe that should set us on the way towards the 100 which I have always believed was a fair value for this very steady company who still could be subject for a takeover at any time. Up early tomorrow morning to check out the results!
I suddenly realise that this company despite being delisted is still being delisted and there are people here who still believe they might get a profit on their shares. Seriously, it is time to move on. We are now in a new tax year and I have applied my losses on SER against profits elsewhere in my CGT calculation and I doubt the tax authorities will have any problems with that. The company is dead. I know there is a board clearing out the embers but with the cash there was left and no income or outlook of any income that cash will now have gone and it will take more than a miracle to sell or revive the company with any value to exsisting dormant shares. The blame game might go one for years. For me , once JE decided this was going to be his cash cow for his pension, we were doomed. We had some revivals, some of which even gave me an inkling of hope but there simply was nothing to save and infighting and personal battles ruined any hope of getting back. As for BMD without him we definitely would have bee dead 1 year earlier which looking back fo rm e personally would have been good but gave some hope to the long termers. However I have no doubt that he committed fraud by lying about his name. When you deceive people into buying shares on a false basis without the full knowledge of the facts that is fraud. Whether he will ever be convicted is anotehr matter, I doubt it. As for RW and the rest of the management following BMD I don't believe there was nay fraud, maybe bad management, maybe misjudgements but nothing illegal. As for Team Clem I have no idea what they are doing but you cnat revive a corpse and I think they will come to that conclusion and announce it soon. The only possible interest anyone could have in SER would be the previous tax losses but I am not enough of an expert in this area to say if you can apply this to a company that has had no activity for a long time and it would have to be somebody who are in the same field as Sefton. Maybe, maybe just maybe, will somebody pay a minimal fraction to take the company on that basis. Sefton was a sad story, lost a lot of people a lot of money, I managed to stay just in profit after selling and buying several times but I have learnt a lot and I hope everybody else also have. If not then the money lost will be to avail but hopefully the lessons learnt can help everybody recoup their losses elsewhere. There is much more to life and to investing than Sefton!
yes, I did take a punt on CEB. No I haven't followed WRN, a bit too busy work wise to research at post too much. I still hold about 20 odd stocks , amix of larger and smaller chancy shares. Most of them I am letting run for the long term. Mytrading at the moment is mostly on the indexes which is a roller coaster ride.
do you have a problem with me posting? Though this was an open forum? Don't recall ever having said it was my last post but I have said that I wouldn't post except if there was something new to comment on, not like others who post just to see their name in print. So there has been no news for months and hence I haven't posted, but when I am accused of being the reason SER went down, I think it is fair enough that I am allowed to reply even if you think that I shouldn't. I think I can get over your opinion and will post when I feel like it!
Honestly I have heard this rubbish for more than 6 years about this company. I couldn't give a toss what happened on the inside or what you think you know that I don't know. I view every investment I make from the information I can gain, the numbers that are available, the history and the management, and at no point over the last many years has there been any time where these indicators could show any savvy investor that this was a company where you should invest a substantial amount of your portfolio. From time to time there was a chance of a punt but never any outlook of a healthy long term investment. I know a number of you went very personal on this investment, the company and the people involved, huge mistake to make imho. All the conspiracy theories and inside knowledge meant nothing, it was all c... and very few people cam away with any money from this debacle. Amongst those were JE, BMD and RW who just happened to be the last 3 people in charge. That says it all, never invest in a company that thinks more of their management than of their shareholders.
I was not supporting anything and it doesn't become more right by repeating yourself. However if you think the requisition had anything to do with the situation we find ourselves in it just shows again that you haven't understood anything about his company. You really think we would be alive today if the management before the acquisition was in charge. In my view, once BMD stepped down, the last chance of saving this company had gone, no assets, no production, no income, just ongoing expenses, totally tattered reputation, lawsuits left , right and center, ever expanding dilution. All of tis had gone on for years and it would have taken a miracle to ever get Sefton on the right footing again. If you want to blame anyone , blame the people who for so many years wrote 1000's of posts about how much they adored JE while he ruined the company and filled his pockets with your money> Personally I do not blame them as I make my own decisions but never have so many people been so wrong in their judgement and I was fighting an uphill battle for years trying to get them to open their eyes to the truth
You are asking where I am now, sorry thought this forum like the share was dead, so haven't been looking. Then you somehow accuse me and others of plunging SER into death. I think there is something you have seriously misunderstood. I had nothing to do with the running of SER and never have. I was able to see the flaws in virtually everybody that came onboard and I also saw the weakness of having a company with no assets worthwhile and just a lot of talk and I made this clear over 6 years. You somehow get that mixed up with the end fate of the company. Don't shoot the messangers. I hate that I was actually right on this one but you cant say you were not warned enough times! As I always said SER was never more than 2% of my holding and anyone who had ploughed more than that into a company as feeble as SER ought to have their heads checked and have learnt (hopefully ) a valuable but very expensive lesson
Just had a quick look and really sad to see everybody having a go at each other but I guess that is what happens when there is nothing left to discuss about the company. There are people that are saying these people won and others lost. I can see any winners except those who sold long time ago. Anyone still here have lost and just need to move on to better things than this wreck of a company. Nobody who has been in any way in charge of this company for many years can take any pride of the situation and the posters , some of which have supported every board before changing their mind can really take no pride either. I take no pleasure from having been suspect of this company for many years now, just happy that my instincts were right which I hope to put to good use elsewhere. As for the future for SER, don't really see one, THE AGM statement and the CEO letter tell us nothing new. Some of us knew that Kansas was worthless and I don't really see that we can do anything sensible with the money that is left and I doubt that any shareholder is going to pour more money into the hole. There is no mention of the tax losses which was my only hope, so it looks as if they are not viewed as an asset by the new management. Finally I don't really see why they reiterate that the old board spent a million dollar. From 1.1 million (even if the statement doesn't say million, amateurish!) to $461K is not a million. Doesn't really matter, they spent too much as I kept telling people but I don't quite understand the million they talk about. In any event they have no chance of recovering any of that so what is the point in going on about it except to say that if (when) the company closes the new management wont take the blame. Can I suggest we stop being abusive here as it wont bring anyone's money back and it like peeing in your pants, initially might be a nice warm feeling but that doesn't last long! A very happy new year to your all, hope we all have learnt from the failures we have had, that is the way to get the best out of this debacle and hopefully everyone of you will make up their losses and more in the new year!
I assume that is like VIVA JE, VIVA BMD, VIVA RAYLENE. Viva must have another rmeaning in your language like " down the drain" :-)
Come on , you know that those 300k can be blown in no time, legal fees, accountants, maintenance guys in the US, director fees etc. But I am not even concerned about the 300k. it is certainly not a base to start a company on. Nobody could blame them if they closed down the company and even if there was 300k left wouldn't give much to shareholders. there is nothing preventing them from doing that, as I said before they cant be blamed, they have made sure to blame the people some of them were involved in employing. So I am trying to understand why would they try and sustain this company instead of starting a different one where they owned the full thing and didn't have to carry the Sefton legacy and shareholders?
So I see an immense amount of speculation based on .... nothing. People are talking about assets , money from shareholders. money to be recovered from previous management , lawsuits etc but all of this is pie in the sky and nothing concrete has been proposed , costed or financed. if we get anything back from the previous management it will be peanuts, so the money we have will not carry us very long if we ever get any paid employees. I have no problem with what the new management have done or not done, so not critiscising them but would be careful to have too high hopes and I now see the same people who used to support JE and then BMD and the Raylene, all of which they quickly regretted (sometimes not so quick) and now they are throwing themselves 100% behind the new management. Loyalty and confidence in authority is good, but thrice bitten I would be a little more shy now. My real question is this. With my business experience I try and put myself in the position of the new management and the major shareholders. I am sitting with a company without any real assets, I have lost the valuable AIM listing, I have one of the worse reputations any brand has ever had and the oil price is the lowest ever (in memory). So let us assume that there are new assets , probably distressed due to the oil price, let us assume I can raise cash and let us assume I want to run a company with these new asetts. So the question is why don't I establish a company I and my investors would own 100%. Why would I carry a bunch of shareholders (no disrespect,( i am one of them) and let them share in my profits if I ever get any. I don't owe the shareholders anything and it would in fact be easier simply to establish a new entity and close down Sefton. That is what I would do and most people in business are in it for money. the new management would never be blamed if Sefton went down. The only thing the old Sefton has left is some tax losses, and I am no tax specialist, but I assume the new company could make an offer to buy out Sefton for a cheap price including the tax losses. I will be happy to hear any views on what is wrong with my assessment or if you agree.
I agree this is a very strong signal to the markets about the future of HRG. A very experienced executive, excellent track record and an in depth knowledge of the travel industry. I am delighted. Bill Brindle's appointment doenst make much difference, but he has been on the management a long time and it probably doesn't harm to be the son in law of the CEO! All in all a good day for HRG and promising a strong future and a higher SP which is all I want for Christmas
HI Fellows, hope you are all well and the peace and tranquillity of Christmas is filling your hearts with happiness and good thoughts. I have no written for some time, basically because there has been nothing to wrote about and also I need to get off the habit that SER had become and all negativity surrounding maybe the worse horror story in recent listed companies. The film that will feature the ups and mainly downs of this compay will surely surpass Starwars both in numbers of sequels and in takings. So now we have had the AGM (thanks for the updates for those of us who couldnt make it), but was there really any news. I am not sure: The previous management did a bad job, well no surprise there, just see where we are, delisted, no money (very little), no production, no outlook of any deals, no nothing, so no surprise that they were deemed wasteful. We all knew that they were spending loads of money, Rob Shepherd, PR companies, trips to Indonesia, not least legal fees and of course salary for Raylene and maybe others including BMD and don't forget Clem Chambers who was on the board for part of that time where the cash burn has taken place. Did we spend too much? yes, at least when you look at the outcome. Was what was spent criminal? Highly unlikely. Does it pay to spend more money on legal and management time pursuing the people who spent that money? Absolutely not. It seems every new management spend most of the time and money going after the old management and nobody bothers to look forward. Judging from the reports from the AGM far more time was spent on the past than on the future. Yes there was 3 proposals on the table , one which was closing the company with virtually nothing split amongst the shareholders and the other one which was a secret!! The third was vague, uncosted and with no specifications, so to be honest in my view just now there are no concrete proposals out there. I don't blame anyone for this as this company will be extremely difficult to turn around and without the listing and any assets worthwhile one has to ask the question, why bother. Of course I would love to see my shares have a value, even though in my mind I wrote them off long ago but the only bright thing I can see in the company are the tax losses which could be useful for somebody. There is none of the attributes that other companies might be interested in: expertise, brand, assets etc. So I must say I am surprised that Clem &Co are even bothered spending time and probably money on the efforts but for now he has yet over now many months to present one figure or concrete proposal that makes me believe there is a real chance. I remain to be convinced and as always hope to be. Clem is a clever guy and I am sure a good man and I wish him luck , will support his efforts if I can but I don't think we can say that we can see any light at the end of this dark tunnel yet. Let me use this opportunity to wish you all a very merry Christmas and a success
if you are talking about our friends from SER you are absolutely right. Totally ridiculous to keep arguing every day. I know some people have lost fortunes in there so keep hanging on in hope that something will be salvaged from the ruins, but that share is the best example of how rampers can ruin a lot of people's lives. Hope I have saved some by trying over the years to create some balance and in some cases begged people to open their eyes to the fact. I tend to focus on where there is a future and a very good one like HRG. A bit of profit taking today which is starnge considering holders at the end of play tomorrow are in for the interim dividend Hope you are doing well, trust I will s ee you around
didn't dare write anything last week as I didn't want to jinx this but now the results are out I can breath again and celebrate an around 20% increase in SP. Hold quiet a few of these so 20% is a lot of money. the results were more than solid in every area and the cost reductions outlined for the next few years promise very well for the future. Obviously we still hope that one of the stalkers will come in and get the SP over 100, in the meantime would love to see 80 in the next few weeks or months.
That situation of course affects all german (and possibly other ) car manufactors ,but as you say it shouldn't necessary mean less travel , on the contrary as they need to explore new markets etc. Germany is anyway one of the weakest markets in the HRG group. Luckily we are now on the way back up again in line with the market . Once the market is back we would be up to 70 again and hopefully we can then start seeing a move towards the real value of this company which must be close to 100. got a few years left to my retirement and relying on HRG reaching that level to make the retirement time even sweeter.
I think it has dropped inline with the overall market which has dropped about 15%, have not heard anything that should cause any worries otherwise. I am not sure if HRG services VW or any of the other car companies but that wont affect it anyway. as far as I can see we are in track with expectations.