RE: Gold tipped to $35006 Aug 2020 21:43
"Physical gold buying is collapsing in many parts of the world". Name one.
Your comments about the paper market are accurate, but let us not forget that we have seen a significant divergence between physical & paper prices since March. Three years ago I could buy a gold Britannia for £15 over spot: today that premium is more than £70. A certain Eric Sprott seems prepared to go toe-to-toe with the COMEX. I fear he will go the same way as the Hunt Brothers, although he seems to be approaching it without leverage: that will make him harder to de-rail. We should all wish him well if he can break the decades-long manipulation, but I don't fancy his chances.
I expect a pullback in the PM prices.....a big one. But the new ATH for gold will not start with a $2xxx. Or even a $3xxx. I'm aware that lots of people pluck prices out of the air, so let me state the rationale for my belief that gold is going to £4,000 p/oz & silver to £135 p/oz. And yes: that's GBPs & not USDs.
In the run-up to the last financial crisis to the gold price peak (2006 - 2011) gold rose 450%. Since 2013 until May last year, gold traded in a fairly tight trading range, & was clearly capped at $1,350 p/oz, having bounced off that ceiling a half-dozen times. Let's take a VERY conservative $1,000 as a base line & multiply it by 550% (which is a rise of 450%) & you get $5,500 p/oz gold. Adjust for exchange rates (again, VERY conservatively) & you can comfortably get £4,000 p/oz gold. At the same time, the GSR collapsed to around 1:30. Apply that same ratio to your new gold price & you get silver around £135 p/oz.
Can I guarantee that will happen? No: of course not, & there are plenty of people far better qualified to comment than I am, who have projections both higher & lower than that, but it's hardly an "out there" projection when we already have precedent for (percentage) moves of this scale. TBH, I'm surprised to see the GSR collapsing so quickly. I thought we'd need the StHTF before we saw a significant contraction in the GSR, so whilst it's great for silver, I feel a little uneasy that I didn't foresee it at this stage of the market.
Whilst surging precious metal prices make for an exciting (& profitable) ride, we should all remember that safe haven assets rise for a reason. We have seen really quite astonishing rises (particularly in silver) over the last 4 weeks or so. Something wicked this way comes, & I fear it is bigger & more significant than "just" a second wave of the Elite's bio-weapon.
Whilst £4,000 p/oz gold might make us all very wealthy, we must all ask ourselves just how bad a state must the world be in to justify it, & would we want to live in it (assuming we can survive it)?
GLA.