Member Info for buffettology

Do you think we have all bases covered? I recall someone saying before who was managing to get some dialogue with the company that they were having to constantly monitor their patent situation, which I imagine may still be the case?!

Apologies all for going over the same ground, but if PM is wanting to keep his credibility he is going to have to deliver on this: "we will see an aviation licensing deal this year, and it will be material". So, this wil be before end of June then!! Sit tight and wait i guess!!

Intersting specifically in relation to aviation:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/03/19/a-positive-coronavirus-update-life-in-china-returning-to-normal-as-flights-to-london-resume/amp/

...you risk giving more up but that will get you to break even quicker/remove the uncertainty of cash flow as you get more upfront.

WHL thanks for the reply, appreciated. I guess I'm slightly optimistic because even if we need more cash earlier I think they'll find this without equity. Hard to say how much will be required but let's hope. Either that or they go all out on licensing our tech even in fleet too?!

The current situation in china:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/chinese-life-slowly-gets-back-to-normal-as-the-epidemic-subsides-coronavirus

Reading this update over and over again and unless its the way it's written or I have managed to brain wash myself i think we will be ok. It's really hard to say exactly what the outcome will be, but what we dont know is what level of income we are going to be receiving for automotive and perhaps this will balance what ever we miss in fleet. Also, from the wording it appears to suggest that we will not get any income for aviation fy 20. Therefore perhaps this will fall in fy21 and all will be ok, as going by Cenkos worts case scenario calculations and it's around 5m required (shortfall), which should easily be made up with licence deals. I think these licence deals are signed but it's now about timing of announcements. Perhaps it wouldn't be wise to be announcing such a deal during these times as shareholders of those companies will be unhappy to see them spending so much during times of uncertainty!? They'll therefore wait and announce once the virus is in containment or the situation is easing!? Just some thoughts!!

May be something to do with the climate going by one of the suggestions in this article : https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-outcomes.amp.html

Is anyone able to answer how bearish was their worst case scenario they presented and is this a good example or do people feel that this is still slightly generous given that the virus on on the rampage?

100% and with the latest analyst report saying that even with beaten down forecasts they are fine for 2 years and the remaining funds can be sourced if needed through debt they should be loading up!! I'm expecting many institutions including those new American ones they've met on their recent roadshows to have a nibble

Are they in a closed period or can they buy?

Can someone post it and what does their worst case scenario modelling stack up? Is it reading like a fair assumption or could it be remodelled to illustrate an even worse picture?

I'm guessing yes? No funds appear to be averaging down yet?

S and p 500 up!

I wonder when we will hear about these?

We need a proactive video from PM reinforcing the written update. If you're listening See please sort

Smokey appreciate your worst case scenario assumptions, but even if we get battered with this and let's say our cash/orders takes us through for another year and not 2 I'm convinced the world will be back to normal by then and who knows the big deals could land by then too

Just to buy out the OEM contracts at $200m that's just over 5p. Add on the IP price and fleet to that as well as what cash is left. No way it would go for less than 5p. Anyone agree?

But at what price? This is a concern!! Anyone prepared to suggest a price?

...US Govt could bail out the airlines which would represent a value 3x of 9/11!!