Member Info for BuddsoddiCymru

Possibly, but look at the mess they’ve created with Deal builder. I think it may have caused some internal culture issues considering the significant drop in employee engagement. It calls into question the future execution and talent risk.

Carrington - what were the variables of your DCF?

Quite an odd bloke. Not worth rising to it. Better to keep this thread to good quantitative and qualitative analysis.

Jds15 - You strike me as either a child, or an older gentleman that has nothing better to do than to stir animosity online.

If you have nothing of value to say, then you will simply be blocked.

What’s wrong with waiting for a certain valuation to buy? My re-entry valuation requires a good margin of safety to ensure my target IRR %.

Likewise. Other threads have some decent analysis and insight.

Seems there’s a few on here that kick and scream against many comments. Most seem to be “traders” that get very upset on discussions regarding price.

It’s more the precedent set that they’ve swapped their own shares at a premium to increase their Airtel Africa holding at a discount.

Depends. For EV, you add debt but remove cash to understand the core operations. It is difficult to calculate as debt is at the group level, so removing debt won't give an accurate valuation of MM.

If they achieve their $10bn valuation for MM, that is an ~10-11x EBITDA multiple on trailing earnings, which seems low given the growth of MM at 50%+ margins. Regardless, AAF stand to retain 80% ownership in MM, which should, in theory, re-rate AAF to high single digit multiples on the base case.

I don't believe they could take AAF fully private through discounted block share purchases. UK takeover law requires all shareholders to be treated equally with minimum offer conditions. I may be wrong and they can, but that would be a scandal worthy of legal action.

Yes. It’s been my best performing stock and makes up 15% of my portfolio, so I also hope it remains, especially since I can’t see them paying a premium for the remaining shares. If the mobile money spin off goes as planned, we could see a significant re-rating.

Feel free to tell us all your portfolio if you’re so high and mighty about it.

Nice bit of gaslighting there.

Nowhere did I say I was a “whiz”. Just merely pointing out that MKS Is by no means “very cheap” at its current valuation. By all means be critical and have a discussion about it, but instead you’ve tried to belittle me and have provided no rational response.

I trawl this forum now and again, and it always seems to be the same few keyboard warriors talking down at people.

Just chill out mate.

When did I talk about share price?

I said valuation, not share price.

Bit creepy mate.

You have no idea of my position size and weighting.

It’s Mader group, which I sold for a very tidy profit. I care more about fundamentals than short term share price.

It’s trading around its average value historically. I don’t see this being “very” cheap by many metrics.

At the end of the day, only the fundamentals matter.

I’d assume so. It is likely pricing in the very strong results along with the valuation for mobile money. If they achieve their $10bn valuation and retain a significant proportion of the shares (80%>), then Airtel could re-rate significantly to valuations typical of a fintech.

What is your calculation?

Yes not a bad set of results.

2026 was an aggressive investment year with 13 stores opened, creating a drag on operating profit. Once these stores mature, we should see meaningful operating leverage. I think their 10% operating margin is ambitious, but could be achievable.

I’d be cautious using the PE ratio for a company such as as Ashtead.