Member Info for BucksLad13

Again there is absolutely no reason not have a phased roll out using existing credit facilities rather than overtrade..

Without market research this is not exactly correct ,Kelloggs might by making a few million packets a day and 90% market share be able to deliver a superior product for less than your manufacturing costs. Economies of scale, brand leadership and loyalty and linked advertising, or even drop the price whilst you haemorrhage money.

... and of course which have the most customer appeal, because if they don't and stay on the shelf they can have 250,000 outlets and still burn. I bought more today on the basis that Mexico is about to ratify an earlier decision to legal cannabis production and sales.

When we owned a garage the biggest tanker was 6000 gal = 150 x 40 gal barrels, 16 tankers, unless the have much bigger capacity would equate therefore to 2400 BOPD. Is that incorrect? ( I would be happy to have the income from 2400 bopd)

One can either listen to economists and other "experts" at the RiCS and elsewhere or ultimately trust the market. Bovis shares have been so far undervalued that someone had to make a bid. At just over £9.00 they are beginning to reflect the value of their landbank and planning permissions; if they were selling less houses at prices in the market 3 years ago.! With UK house completion still running at 150000 a years below demand for the last 3 years ( see Persimmon BARS chart) and more so going further back, Bovis still represent stunning value fro investors and any takeover bidders at £10.50 and above.

Property market grows 3.1 per cent year-on-year in Your Move index, with even London seeing a boost Prices edged up 0.3 per cent from December, or 3.1 per cent from January last year, to £300,169. Housing market activity was also higher than is usual for the time of year, Estate Agent Today says, with approximately 60,000 transactions in January, down around 2,000 on 2016 but up by the same margin on 2015. Oliver Blake, managing direct at Your Move and Reeds Rains estate agents, said: "Following a strong December, the performance in January shows a market whose resilience continues to defy the doubters."

Sour grapes? The units are run by accountants but there are poor in house cost control hence the RIOE is slightly less than their peers? Little of this stacks, when buildings are " rushed" but the drivers need drive and passion !

When remuneration committees recommendations are being avidly adopted by directors still eager to rapidly increase salaries and pensions, why are they, like Greene King, talking about challenging conditions market uncertainties and such like other than to dupe shareholders into thinking they are doing a good job and/or covering their backs against poor performance compared to their peers? Far too many, including GK are blaming Brexit as an excuse to cover weak management, .particularly when a direct competitor such as Weatherspoon laud the opportunities the current market enjoy and deliver a strong result. The two Chairman's statements have in a few months differentiated what were two roughly equal share valuations by £2

In the Business Section of Monday's Telegraph by someone named Rhiannon Bury who informs us by Headline that "Housebuilder Berkeley rejects Schroders bid to merge it with struggling rival Bovis" She goes on to explain that "Bovis have issued a profit warning at the end of 2016 and is in a difficult period which has claimed the scalp of David Ritchie" this was due to Pre-tax profits being flat at £160M and £170M below the analysts forecasts of £180M because of the slowdown in the rate of building and sales in December". Apart from the fact that there was a longer Christmas break this year and a sudden very cold snap, house completions were only "moderately affected" with completions picking up on the first half of 2017.Why does anyone listen to these boy and girl scribblers? Even the RICS which has been backtracking like fury, trying to justify its horrendously wrong string of forecasts is still being quoted as a source of economic data in the market, when it has yet to be shown to have any semblance of a prediction model remotely accurate its disastrous attempts. Bovis has a strong pipeline.,Its sales are at much higher value and both continue to rise .The only constraint being skilled labour availability and some increases in building materials. Presumably if the slight chance of a merger.is now off the planning board the share price will fall back to around 800P where they represent superb value and potential for even bigger dividends and further growth going forward..

Increasing market and sales and at much higher prices is hardly a poor performance and in any other sector would be hailed as a very good outcome. Bovis have consistently matched or bettered its competition in dividends and continues to deliver. Ritchie is not flavour of the month with the boy scribblers, and has never cultivated them but internal indices and ROCE has improved, and the forward pipeline looks healthier than ever. Shore capital and Hardy have not been exactly brilliant at calling the market.

The Guardian today The Grudian today "The housebuilder’s (BOVIS) chief executive David Ritchie quit on Monday, less than a week after the group issued its profit warning. It warned last Wednesday that it would complete about 180 fewer homes than expected in 2016, blaming operational issues. This will affect profits – Bovis now expects to make an annual pre-tax profit of £160m to £170m, compared with analysts’ forecasts of about £183m. Categorically BOVIS DID NOT ISSUE a profit warning!!!! They clearly stated that completions would be made Q1 2017 Financial scaremongering at its worst!! and affecting share prices, but typical of the media sloppiness and lack of experience amongst staff!

The Daily Telegraph today. "This may or may not be a good time for democracy, but one thing is certain about the past year of political upsets; it’s heaped further humiliations on the economics profession" How very true yet we still get articles containing such pearls of wisdom such as The Week reproduced by H&L today "Predictions at the moment suggest that the loss of momentum will continue and that power has shifted in favour of buyers, but that in most parts of the UK the house price trend will remain positive next year." What are these people talking about.? They claimed Armageddon immediately in the aftermath of Brexit votes, initially made no reference to the enormous increase in buy to let prior to the increase in stamp duty, causing a massive decline immediately afterwards, attributing that to Brexit and now gradually reflect what is actually happening in the housing market. Truly pathetic! In new build house prices for companies such as Bovis are increasing at a rate that in any other sector would be lauded as incredible Manufacturing processes, automation, cheap imported labour, and global procurement has meant nearly stable or decreasing prices for a whole swathe of products and services, yet house price escalation of nearly 10% in the case of Bovis is countered by "expert" opinion telling all that prices may drop! At one time the Law of Demand and Supply dictated that with a finite resource such as land, planning constraints, and availability of skilled labour, assured us that only a certain number of housing units in normal peace time conditions would be built, with prices ultimately determined by demand and lack of availability i.e supply. So unless the demand is switched off by not "uncertainty caused by Brexit" the catch all excuse bandied about by those predicting dire outcomes, but by a major recession stopping the desire for ownership such as 1988 then the RICS and others are hopelessly demonstrating the Telegarph's accusation of "expert and economic guesswork" Clearly the point "that interest rates have dropped to 0.25% but could go up again" is not only futile but pointless with 290 fixed rate mortgages at their historic lowest in the market. In the next 2 years immigration will peak as EU citizens will will have the right to stay if resident . With other articles advising of a housing crisis,lending from parents, the indigenous demand is off the scale Government initiatives such as new villages and others mayl deliver up to 50,000 extra homes per annum eventually but will not dent the 1 Million backlog. In the interim "expert" opinion now is beginning to accede to a slightly slower rate of INCREASE in house prices. Yet Bovis et al share prices languish at around their value of 3 years ago when they were building far less houses at far less profit. Dividend yields will increase for at least 2 years. BUY!

Bovis is now cheaper than 3 years ago when its 2013 dividend totalled 13P ! That is smaller than the interim now paid! Financial year 2016 ought to deliver around 44p minimum yielding a forward 6% with uplifts in 2017.

The Brexit hype continues to depress solid stocks such as Bovis. Today's small rally is the latest addition to the ongoing saga of doubt and gloom cast by those trying to justify earlier predictions of disaster to befall us all, especially on the housing market When it ought to be so obvious to all that demand for housing will continue to rise almost exponentially as the influx of immigrants all seeking homes accelerates and will continue to do so for at least 3 years. Indigenous population growth continues, and in a significant section is also increasing.Yet we still have might ifs and maybes reported from the RICS and other agents, as if it were fact not mere supposition, and poor at best. They are now gradually altering their tune and actually referring to the supply side , and bleating that not enough housing is coming onto the market, and that's why prices are staying high, and increasing. Apart from some Central London postcodes where over supply was well documented prior to Brexit, causing price weakening, the situation in the UK is that house prices will continue to climb until there is a balance in the market. Mortgages are at an all time low and will continue to be so for at least 3 years. Sterling exchange rates will, if anything cause even more investment from overseas buyers. Buy to let taxation is now absorbed into the equation although it caused the blip in this part of the cycle, which any 6th former could have predicted but alluded the "experts" Irrespective of HM Gov's £ 5Bn interference by suggesting they can help small builders return to construction, they will find it difficult to compete for labour and resource, and capital and land is not the primary cause of the current rate of house completions.The larger and medium size builders are building more houses and getting a greater return on capital. Bovis in particular are well placed and are not only building more, but are simultaneously achieving a massive uplift in sales value as they move their product more upmarket, averaging £270K as against £220K a year earlier. This will appear on the bottom line very quickly, and yet the merchants of doom have cast such misery that Bovis shares are completely undervalued, and CEO's have no alternative but to tell their shareholders there are market uncertainties over Brexit as an accurate reflection of the shock to the confidence that the daily drip feed of supposition and negative concepts continue unabated to create the outcome. Currently Bovis is in a very strong position, and ought to be commanding a premium rather than languishing at a price that hardly meets the value of the land it now owns and certainly not the large profits going forward.For those able to wait for 2 or 3 years the gains should be substantial and even those looking to 2017 dividends should not be disappointed. BUY

You need to ask yourself are these 8 or 9 [ositive factors outweighed by sentiement or a UBS analyst's suppositions.Sorry re the typos keyboard worn

Insane note from UBS knocking Bovis. Do they actually believe that a) imimigration to the UK os going to slow raather tahn actually accelrrate in the run up to any deal we do in the next 2 and a half years. b) that weak sterling is going to deter foreign investment in UK property.c) that any housebuilder is going to remotely keep up with demand d) That the 290 plus fixed mortgage deals at histortcally low rates are goimg to be removed from the market when the suppliers are competing to sell them, or that the astounding variabe rates will soimehow also disappear? e) That interest rates are going anywhere but down in the Uk for the next 2 years? f) that new buid prices are not STILL increasing g) that Bovis particuar portfolio is actually for slightly more expensive homes than previously and that they are actually building and selling more of them and will continue to do so h) That their shares are worth less than 2 years ago when they were turning over vastly less and generating far less profit and dividends. The fundamentals are ttoally against sucg crazy analysis. The shares are an absolute steal at up to £10.50, and the dividend will increase significantly over th next 2 years.Their return on cap and other fundamentals are better than when one Jim Slater recommenned buying at up to £12..00. The sahres are now cheaper than the land they own

What an opportunity that the current Bovis share price represents!! The RICS today started to qualify their widely reported forecast of a drop in house prices, bsed upon their survey of estaet agents where a perventage 34% said trhey had seen less activity post Brexit. Clearly the only place wehere prices have eased where an oversupply hangs in the market in some London postal districts, widely publiscised well before Brexit.. Along with the FT "experts"and Osborne, they refuse to admit the laws of supply and demand still exist and seek to justify their doom mongering by insisting there will be a fall on house prices. They seek jusyification for their predictions which now means tyhat Bovis for instance is valued less than it stood at 3 years ago when it was building sihgnificantly less stock at more than 40% below todays selling prices WHICH are still RISING!!! All that will happen in the market is that there will be a small drop off in some areas in the rate of Increase. This to these experts somehow materialises itself as justifying thier predictions of a fall!! Bovis is now wortth considerably morte than at any time in the past , which will be borne out by their next sets of data!! BUY!

Not the Brexiteers is it but the Bremainers forecasting doom and gloom talking down the market. However the net effect is that those holding Bovis share originally are holding a large loss but given enough liquidity would be wise to buy as many as they can afford.

The opportunity with Bovis still exists, essentially by continuing by spin, particularly when the doom mongers are still pushing the idea that house prices will fall significantly rather than increase a little slower. Only today reports are headlining that house prices will fall based upon what? The RICS report saying that 36% of Estate Agents report a drop off in sales in the last 3 months. This means 64% are reporting an INCREASE. Just how this is reported therefore beggars belief, particularly given absolutely no mention of the vast increase in the previous few months in order to beat the April 1st increase in Buy to Let stamp duty. One must wonder whether the reports in the Grudian, FT and the RICS. ie, those mist vehemently promoting the effect on the UK housing market in the event of Brexit are now somehow trying to justify themselves by publishing frankly rubbish, both factually and statistically.

Had a note at the weekend essentially picking out Bovis from the rest and quote " Buying Bovis shares is like buying £5 note for £4 !! and that the current levels it is cheaper to buy the shares than the asset of the land they own, without any upside once houses have been built!! ( ie still well below NAV)